Europe

A top adviser at the European Court of Justice has said that the European Central Bank’s crisis-fighting Outright Monetary Transactions programme falls within policy makers’ mandate.

Q: That’s pretty much a green light for quantitative easing next week isn’t it?

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Most euro area governments and investors are breathing a sigh of relief after Wednesday’s preliminary judgment from the EU’s highest court in favour of the European Central Bank’s sovereign bond-buying programme – the 2012 initiative that helped to bring the euro crisis under control.

But governments and investors, in and outside Europe, should keep in mind that the danger of a bitter, protracted struggle over EU constitutional law will now go up. This would pit Germany against other power centres in the EU. Read more

Within twenty years of the end of the second world war, the same European countries that had been sworn enemies during six years of bloody conflict committed themselves to a future of peace, prosperity and political and economic integration.

Some war crimes suspects slipped the net and avoided the Nuremberg trials, but their elusiveness did not interrupt or discredit the reconciliation process led by West Germany and France.

But two decades on from the wars that ripped apart the former Yugoslavia, it is impossible to make the case that reconciliation and integration are as advanced there as they were in western Europe by the mid-1960s.

The region’s societies, ethnicities and political leaderships remain bitterly at odds over how to assess the war crimes committed in Croatia and Bosnia-Herzegovina between 1991 and 1995.

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By Gideon Rachman
A couple of days before the terrorist attacks in Paris, a book arrived at my office. I placed What’s Wrong with France? by Laurent Cohen-Tanugi on the shelves, alongside a line of similar titles: France on the Brink, France in Denial, France in Freefall and France’s Suicide.

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Will the Greek election reignite the eurozone crisis?
Snap elections are being held in Greece later this month in which the radical left Syriza party is expected to come out on top. Gideon Rachman is joined by Kerin Hope, Athens correspondent, and Tony Barber, Europe Editor, to discuss the implications for Greek debt restructuring and the eurozone.

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  • Large-scale intervention in the FX markets, limiting liquidity, further interest rate rises and capital controls are among the options that Russia’s central bank has to stem the rout in the rouble
  • Jeb Bush, the scion of a political dynasty who has declared his interest in running for president, faces a gulf between what the Republican base wants and what US floating voters will tolerate
  • Pope Francis was essential to breaking the deadlock between Cuba and the US that has lasted 50 years, initiating a discussion that led to the secret diplomacy behind the rapprochement
  • The brutal attacks in Peshawar have already backfired against the Pakistani Taliban (Foreign Policy)
  • Saudi cleric wants genders to mix and women to drive – but he is being attacked for it (Your Middle East)

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  • Bahrain’s royal family has built up vast private wealth, including a $900m portfolio of UK real estate, after embarking on development projects on disputed reclaimed land in the Gulf kingdom, an FT investigation reveals
  • The prospect of Greece’s self-styled “radical left” Syriza party coming to power has sown panic among investors, but its leader has softened his rhetoric and is changing tactics to reassure the business community
  • Beneath the surface of gridlock and hyper-partisanship in US political life is a national security establishment whose influence endures administrations and constantly seems to evade constraints
  • Narendra Modi has not made many sweeping reforms since he stormed to India’s premiership in May. But he has made some reforms about sweeping – showing his feel for the issues that affect the masses outside the Delhi beltway
  • The extent of the UK’s military and political catastrophe in Afghanistan is hard to overstate. It was doomed to fail before it began, and fail it did, at a terrible cost in lives and money, writes James Meek in the London Review of Books

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Forget about the European Central Bank’s decision on interest rates at 12.45 GMT: policy makers will almost certainly leave those untouched.

Instead, pay attention to what Mario Draghi says at the press conference that follows at 13.30. The ECB president’s promise to tackle low inflation “without delay” has raised hopes that policy makers are close to a decision on extending its bond buying from asset-backed securities and covered bonds to include corporate and sovereign debt. A few expect action as early as today, largely in the form of more corporate bond buying. Most don’t think anything will happen until the new year.

Here are four things to watch for at today’s press conference.

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  • Following the military coup and counter-revolution, Egypt’s main problem is the restoration of the security state, which is using the judiciary as one of its arms to stifle dissent and ringfence the army’s privileges
  • Russian president Vladimir Putin cancelled construction of a strategically important gas pipeline following opposition from the EU and sanctions, but Moscow will instead develop a gas hub to southern Europe via Turkey
  • Lines of frustrated shoppers have replaced socialist rallies and posters of Hugo Chavez as the most ubiquitous images of Venezuela, with the situation set to worsen after Opec resisted Caracas’s calls to boost the oil price
  • The booming trade in jade in Myanmar – like blood diamonds in Africa – is turning good fortune into misery, as the spoils remain in the hands of the military and Chinese financiers who collude to smuggle the gemstone (NYT)
  • Jihad isn’t all it’s cracked up to be, say disgruntled Isis recruits from France, who complain of iPods not working, being forced to do the dishes – and threats of execution if they attempt to flee (The Independent)

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By Gideon Rachman
What should western politicians be most worried about: growth, inequality, the environment, education? To judge from today’s discourse, the answer seems to be none of the above. Instead, in the past month, both Barack Obama, US president, and David Cameron, UK prime minister, have made big speeches on immigration. At the weekend Swiss voters rejected a proposal virtually to end the flow of incomers to their country. But anti-immigration parties have made strong gains in a variety of other European nations, including Sweden and Italy, in the past year.

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