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John Kasich, the Ohio governor who came second in New Hampshire, is not expected to expend much energy in the state where there is less support for his moderate conservatism. He will focus on Michigan, which votes on March 8 and is seen as a must-win for him. That leaves Mr Bush and Mr Rubio dueling in South Carolina for the establishment mantle that they and Mr Kasich are all hoping to claim. Read more
There is a wonderful passage in Jonathan Swift’s “Gulliver’s Travels” about the war between Little-Endians in Lilliput and Big-Endians in Blefuscu over how to open a hard-boiled egg.
It would be extremely rude of me to suggest that the uproar in France about the proper use of the circumflex is in any way comparable to the goings-on in Swift’s satire. Read more
In the GOP race, Mr Trump remains ahead in the polls, but Marco Rubio, the Cuban-American senator, is closing the gap. The latest Boston Globe/Suffolk poll shows the New York property mogul with 29 per cent, compared to 19 per cent for Mr Rubio and seven per cent for Ted Cruz, the Texas senator who won the Iowa caucus. On the Democratic side, an average of recent polls compiled by Real Clear Politics finds Mr Sanders with a 17-point lead over Mrs Clinton. But treat the polls with caution given their record in Iowa and the fact that New Hampshire voters are notorious for making up their minds at the last moment.
The Democratic debate in New Hampshire last night was a feisty affair with Bernie Sanders attacking Hillary Clinton over her connections to Wall Street and her willingness to collect more than $200,000 a pop for speeches to financial institutions. The Vermont senator suggested that his rival would be in hock to rich people while his “political revolution” was being funded by campaigns from average Americans. But when the debate veered to foreign policy, he was no match for the former secretary of state. My colleagueCourtney Weaver has this story on the final Democratic debate before New Hampshire holds its primaries on Tuesday. Read more
Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders are taking more shots at each other as the Democrats prepare to spar in New Hampshire tonight in their last debate (which you can watch for free) before the Granite State holds its primaries on Tuesday. The Vermont socialist senator accused the former New York senator of being close to Wall Street despite her vow to clamp down on financial institutions that are taking advantage of Americans.
“You’re looking at the guy who’s not just talking the talk when it comes to campaign finance – I am walking the walk,” Mr Sanders tweeted after reports about the amount of money his rival has raised from Wall Street. Read more
The UK is a generous issuer of residence permits to Americans, Chinese and Indians
It is time to stop the panic-mongering and put Europe’s refugee and migrant crisis into a sensible perspective.
Across the 28-nation EU, some rabble-rousing politicians and hysterical media outlets are stoking public alarm that uncontrollable tides of migrants from non-white, often Muslim countries are swamping Europe. These migrants are depicted as instigators and perpetrators of terrorism, sex crimes, random murder and robbery.
Let me cite some data from an official EU report that throw a different light on the topic of migration into Europe. The data concern EU residence permits granted to non-Europeans. I confess that, when I saw the data for the first time, I was pretty startled. Readers may be surprised, too. Read more
Welcome to Week 2 of White House countdown, our new daily newsletter which we hope will keep readers on top of one of the most fascinating American elections in years. You can sign up to receive it by email here. Demetri Sevastopulo, Washington Bureau Chief
Remember Iowa? Well, forget Iowa. Just hours after Ted Cruz won the Iowa caucuses with a 27-24 victory over Donald Trump, the presidential contenders were already flocking to New Hampshire for the February 9 primaries. Mr Trump was certainly trying to forget Iowa. After an uncharacteristically long silence (20 hours) on Twitter, the billionaire re-emerged to spin the result. Read more
Welcome to Week 2 of White House countdown, our new daily newsletter which we hope will keep readers on top of one of the most fascinating American elections in years. You can sign up to receive it by email here. Thanks for reading. Demetri Sevastopulo, Washington Bureau Chief
DES MOINES – Donald Trump hopes his daughter Ivanka will have her baby (due in 2 weeks) today in Iowa. Chris Christie, the witty New Jersey governor, is entertaining diners at the Machine Shed restaurant with impressions of the former star of The Apprentice. Ted Cruz, the Texas senator, is coming under fire for circulating misleading leaflets which suggest that Iowan residents are engaging in “voter violation” for not participating in elections. The drama adds up to one thing – the Iowa caucuses that kick off the 2016 presidential election are here. Read more
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Officials from the financing bodies may have headed to the Caucasus late this week for a possible emergency bailout, but they are also deeply concerned about some Latin American oil-producing countries. The list includes Brazil, now mired in its worst recession in more than a century, Ecuador, which has been mending ties with the Fund as its economy shrinks, and even Venezuela, where the IMF last set foot about a decade ago. But it is Venezuela’s dire economic crisis that has spurred default fears as the government, and state-owned oil company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA), are running out of money to pay debts as crude prices continue to crash. (The country even owes $3m in annual contributions to the United Nations.) Analysts believe Venezuela can make good on some $2.4bn due next month, which will take every cent of its oil sales for January and February, but according to Barclays a “credit event” is on the cardsunless oil prices miraculously recover. Things are not looking good. While embattled President Nicolás Maduro has been unable to lure fellow Opec members to convene an emergency meeting to ramp up prices, Venezuela’s oil basket, which trades at a discount to global benchmarks because of its higher content of heavy oil, is trading at around $20 per barrel. Experts believe a Venezuelan default may spark a nasty Argentina-style battle with holdout creditors. Read more
Francois Hollande with Indian prime minister Narendra Modi on Republic Day in New Delhi
This week, François Hollande, the president of France became the latest world leader to visit Delhi and pay court to India’s prime minister, Narendra Modi. He is following in the footsteps of Barack Obama, Xi Jinping and Shinzo Abe – all of whom have paid official visits to India, over the past 18 months. Hollande’s visit was particularly productive because he managed to sign a deal to sell India 36 Rafale fighters. The desire to sell weapons to India – which is the world’s second largest arms importer, after Saudi Arabia – accounts for some of the international courtship of the Modi government. More important, however, is the sense that India will be one of the big global powers of the 21st century – and needs to be cultivated.
Welcome to White House countdown, a new daily newsletter which we hope will keep our readers on top of one of the most fascinating American elections in years. We welcome your feedback. Thanks for reading. You can sign up to receive it by email here. Demetri Sevastopulo, Washington Bureau Chief
After months of rhetoric, debates, campaign rallies, polls and old-fashioned political brawling, the centre of gravity of American politics has moved to Iowa where voters will soon have their say. The 15 presidential contenders (12 Republicans and 3 Democrats) are making their closing arguments in the midwestern state which officially starts the 2016 race for the White House when it holds its caucuses on Monday, February 1. Read more
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Vladimir Putin at a regional security summit in Tajikistan in September
It emerged this month that Tajikistan’s authorities had forcibly shaved the beards of almost 13,000 men last year as part of their grim struggle to stamp out militant Islam. But the big problem for Tajikistan and the rest of Central Asia in 2016 will not be beards. If the predictions of various western and Russian specialists are accurate, it will be the contribution of Russia’s economic troubles to religious radicalisation in the region. Read more
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At the height of the eurozone crisis, it almost seemed on Brussels summit days that the EU gathering itself was not the most important meeting in town. Many focused instead on the pre-summit gathering of Europe’s centre-right political family, known as the European People’s party (EPP). Read more
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A trillion here, a trillion there, and very soon you are talking serious money. By Tuesday, the paper value of global stock market losses this year had hit $4tn – a number probably higher by Friday. China’s economic slowdown and the oil price collapse are the triggers for the market slide. The crunch is not all bad for all companies operating in emerging markets – although it has hit commodity-dependent Latin American countries particularly hard. The region has responded in ways that range from the good to the doubtful, the downright ugly and the somewhat creative. Read more
Protesters pour into the Moldovan parliament
Take a moment to consider the events that unfolded on Wednesday inside the parliament building in Chisinau, capital of Moldova, a small, deprived, appallingly governed nation of 3.5m people.
All eyes were on Pavel Filip, a former sweets factory manager who was about to be appointed as Moldova’s sixth prime minister in less than a year. “We’re forming a last-chance government for Moldova,” he told legislators, in remarks that carried only a touch of exaggeration.
What happened next? First, Mr Filip won the parliamentary vote. Then a gang of protesters forced their way into the chamber and started a brawl. One political party leader had blood dripping down his face.
Meanwhile, outside parliament, several thousand demonstrators were chanting anti-establishment slogans on the street. They were still there on Thursday. Read more
United Nations Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon.
Over the next few weeks, the international media will fixate on the New Hampshire primary – a crucial step in the race for the US presidency. It is a safe bet that the “Bulgarian primary” will not get a fraction of the same press attention. But Bulgaria’s decision about which candidate to support as the next UN Secretary-General, could have a major impact on international politics over the next five years. Read more
A Scottish terrier – favourite of presidents
When I arrived on Wednesday at Cyprus’s presidential palace to interview President Nicos Anastasiades, the first occupant I encountered wasn’t the president but Leo. He was in the car park enjoying the sunniest day of 2016 so far in Nicosia.
Leo is to Mr Anastasiades what Fala was to President Franklin D. Roosevelt – the head of state’s dog, a much-loved mascot of his administration. Like Fala, Leo is a black Scottish terrier, and like Fala at the White House in the 1940s, Leo is given pretty much a free run of the presidential grounds. Read more
Albert Rivera, Ciudadanos party leader
The political headlines in Europe this year have all been about the rise of the political extremes. The National Front surged in France, the Law and Justice Party took power in Poland, the Alternative for Deutschland saw a revival in Germany – and Britain’s Labour Party chose a new leader from its far-left fringes.
The elections in Spain on December 20th, however, offer an interesting contrast to this trend. One of the big stories of the campaign has been the rise of a centrist, liberal party called Ciudadanos. If the polls are to be believed, the ruling centre-right People’s Party (PP) is likely to emerge as the largest single group after Sunday’s vote. But the new party (“Citizens” in English) will be in a close battle for second place with the Socialists and Podemos, a radical left party. Even if Ciudadanos comes in fourth, the party’s position in the political centre-ground could mean that it holds the balance of power. Read more
Monday night’s pre-election television debate between Mariano Rajoy and Pedro Sánchez was laden with anachronisms – from the look of the studio to the moderator’s opening remarks and the overly rigid format.
Perhaps the most peculiar throwback, however, was the decision to invite only the Spanish prime minister and the leader of the Socialist opposition. As the two men engaged in their ill-tempered two-hour duel, the absence of two other party leaders – Pablo Iglesias of Podemos and Albert Rivera of Ciudadanos – was palpable. Read more
There are many moving parts in Brazil’s crisis, all of them deeply entwined, and none of them travelling in the right direction. The economy is suffering its worst recession since the 1930s. Congress is gripped by the so-called Lava Jato probe into Petrobras’s giant corruption scandal – a Senator was arrested last week. And now proceedings have opened to impeach the President, Dilma Rousseff. Can it get any worse? The short answer is: yes.
The proximate reason for Rousseff’s possible impeachment is the charge that her government fiddled the 2014 public accounts – normally a technical issue. But the reason why the proceedings have been launched now is pure politics. Read more