Category: Foreign affairs

Lest it be thought that I regard all global economic governance as a crock and don’t give credit where it’s due, congratulations to the US for accepting that “zeroing” – a way of blocking imports by disregarding evidence you don’t like – is dead. In theory Washington will try to negotiate its reacceptance in multilateral talks at the World Trade Organisation, but everyone knows those are going nowhere.

It’s another illustration of two general principles: 1) WTO rules might be patchy, but where they exist, they have held up pretty well, certainly a lot better than protectionism doomsters have been warning; 2) say what you like about the Americans but when they sign up to a trade treaty, eventually, even after a lot of bitching and moaning, they generally stick to it.

Diplomatic response to Syrian crisis in the balance and elections in Uttar Pradesh

With a diplomatic response to the crisis in Syria in the balance at the United Nations, Middle East correspondent Michael Peel, who recently visited Syria, and Middle East editor Roula Khalaf join Shawn Donnan to discuss the situation.
And, as India’s most populous state, Uttar Pradesh, goes to the polls, FT south Asia bureau chief James Lamont and James Fontanella-Khan explain the importance of the election and the risk faced by the Congress party and the scion of the Gandhi dynasty, Rahul Gandhi, in particular.

“Outside” being the WTO, in this case

Dave Camp and Max Baucus, Congress’s two top dogs on trade, want the administration to try to make currency misalignment a WTO matter (originally Brazil’s idea). Good luck with that one. Since the WTO works by consensus, China can block this issue on its own. Regarding the renminbi, the consultancy fees for working out just how undervalued is undervalued would put international economists’ kids through college for decades to come.

So what’s going on here? Possibly the creation of a distraction in an attempt to forestall currency legislation on the Hill. Camp doesn’t like it, and although Baucus voted for it last year, he would probably be secretly happy to see it stalled indefinitely, not being a confrontationist firebrand. If Congress decides to pass a bill to fix this awkward example of judicial meddling in the near future, it could provide a vehicle on which China-bashers can attach some more radical legislation.

The conventional wisdom is that when the economy picks up and unemployment comes down, trade and currency disputes generally abate. On the other hand, there is an election coming up, and POTUS gave a pretty clear indication in the State of the Union that he thinks that warming up the old protectionist rhetoric from four years ago might play well in the Midwestern swing states. Don’t hold your breath for a currency deal coming out of Geneva – Capitol Hill is the real battleground for this one.

Will EU leaders make strides towards recovery?(Photo AP)

Welcome back to the FT’s rolling coverage of the eurozone crisis. By John Aglionby and Tom Burgis in London and Anjli Raval in New York, with contributions from correspondents around the world. All times are GMT.

Today’s main event is the European Union leaders’ summit in Brussels, where growth and Greece’s debt are expected to top the agenda. We expect more movement towards a fiscal discipline pact, too.

Also today Portuguese bond yields have soared, an Italian bond sale went satisfactorily and widening eurozone spreads over German debt suggest unease is setting in anew.

00.22 Talks ground to a halt in Brussels as European leaders left for the night without reaching an agreement on how to plug Greece’s widening budget deficit. While the bargaining with Greece over a debt writedown and its economic management will continue for yet another day, we are going to close down the blog for the evening. Here is our updated EU summit story on today’s agreed fiscal discipline treaty.

Yesterday, I moderated a panel on “The Future of Economics”. The panel included two Nobel laureates in economics – Peter Diamond of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and Joe Stiglitz of Columbia. (For pedants, this is the Sveriges Riksbank Prize in Economic Sciences in Memory of Alfred Nobel.) It also had Robert Shiller of Yale and Brian Arthur of the Santa Fe Institute. So it would be fair to say that the panel was packed.

Three of the participants are definitely of the so-called saltwater school of economics (sceptics of the efficiency of markets in all circumstances who live on the US coasts). Professor Arthur is even more heterodox than they: he is interested in the impact of technology and increasing returns. It would have been wonderful, however, also to have had a fully committed member of the “markets are always right unless governments mess them up” freshwater school, associated particularly with the University of Chicago.

It is impossible to summarise all of such a rich discussion. But here are some of the highlights.

A year ago, Barack Obama’s 2011 State of the Union address contained a laboured gag about salmon being regulated by a different US government agency when they were in the sea to when they swam into fresh water. This bureaucratic horror story was related to plug the idea of reorganising the agencies that regulate and promote trade. When that proposal finally saw the light of day this month, it managed a rare bipartisan achievement of uniting Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill in opposition.

Today, 85 separate business organisations also say it’s a bad idea. An appropriately sceptical take on the seriousness of the proposal is here. Thus it seems safe to file this one under “political posturing” unless something changes drastically.

Apart from
anything else, it’s hardly surprising that a fish which, unusually, divides its time between river and deep sea is going to pose a minor bureaucratic obstacle. Don’t most countries deal with marine and inland fisheries separately? The salmon is a fine creature, but re-engineering the US government around its inconvenient migratory habits seems to be overdoing it a bit.

In his third video on the US 2012 presidential election campaign, FT columnist Edward Luce comments on the Republican nomination race from South Carolina, the next primary state. He says the conservative candidates, above all Newt Gingrich, are scrambling to prevent favourite Mitt Romney from clinching victory.

In his second video on the US 2012 presidential election campaign, FT columnist Edward Luce considers whether anything or anyone can stop Mitt Romney from winning the Republican party presidential nomination after his wins in Iowa and New Hampshire.

The euro has fallen to a 16-month low below $1.27 – run, run for your lives! Or recognise that it’s still around the trade-weighted average for the past decade and only slightly weaker in real terms than when it launched, that a weaker currency is just what a stricken economy needs and that there isn’t much sign that the fall is disorderly and hence generally hitting confidence in eurozone assets. (The eurozone authorities are doing that.)

At least five Iranian scientists believed to have links to the country’s nuclear programme have been attacked in the past two years, four of them fatally.

Iran maintains that its nuclear programme is for civilian purposes; western powers say Tehran is seeking to develop atomic weapons.

The World

with Gideon Rachman

About this blog About Gideon Blog guide
Gideon Rachman and his FT colleagues debate international affairs.

Gideon became chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times in July 2006. He joined the FT after a 15-year career at The Economist, which included spells as a foreign correspondent in Brussels, Washington and Bangkok. He also edited The Economist’s business and Asia sections.

His particular interests include American foreign policy, the European Union and globalisation
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All posts are published in UK time.

Contact gideon.rachman@ft.com about The World blog.

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