Foreign affairs

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With Republican elders’ anti-Trump battle shifting into desperation mode, party operatives are debating ways of torpedoing the tycoon’s candidacy at the GOP convention this summer.

One former candidate who has been on the wrong end of the establishment’s machinations is ex-congressman Ron Paul, who on Friday took to the airwaves to predict senior party figures would use any means necessary to block a Trump nomination. Read more

Under what circumstances might Russia cut off gas deliveries to Europe for a prolonged period of time, and what might be the consequences? Such a scenario may seem too absurd to contemplate. Russia depends heavily on energy exports to Europe and likes to be known as a reliable supplier. Even in the gas crises of 2006 and 2009, the Russians did not go so far. Why would Moscow do something that, on the face of things, would harm its own interests more than it would advance them? Read more

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(Key Biscayne) Donald Trump claimed that “bad things would happen” if the party tried to block him from getting the presidential nomination, warning about possible “riots’ at the Republican convention in July in Cleveland. Bad things have already happened to Marco Rubio, who lost his home state on Tuesday and now needs to find a new job since his senate term expires in January. To see just how badly the local son lost to Trump in Florida take a look at this mapRead more

After Jeb Bush scared Mitt Romney out of running in 2016 only to be outshone by Marco Rubio, his former protégé, one Republican joked that the ghost of Banquo had brought Macbeth to Miami. But on Super Tuesday – March 15 – it was Julius Caesar and the Ides of March that took centre stage in the Sunshine State. Donald Trump won a huge victory in the state, prompting “Little Marco” to drop out of the GOP race. Read more

Once upon a time Florida was the key state to watch in the Republican race. But with Donald Trump way ahead of Marco Rubio, the charismatic Cuban-American who has failed to live up to the hype, all eyes have shifted to Ohio. Trump abruptly cancelled a Monday night event in Miami so that he could campaign in the Buckeye State where John Kasich, the Ohio governor, has overtaken him in the polls. Ted Cruz has been focusing on other states where he has a better chance to pick up delegates.

Rubio is desperately trying to save his campaign, but the odds are heavily stacked against him. I went to a Trump rally in Boca Raton on Sunday where the mogul mercilessly mocked the Florida senator as “Liddle Marco”. If Rubio loses on Tuesday – when Florida, Ohio, Illinois, Missouri and North Carolina vote on Super Tuesday 2 – he has no path to the White House, unless the nominee picks him as his running mate. If you want a flavour of the theatre at Trump events, watch this video of his helicopter doing a fly-by in Boca. Read more

The Atlantic magazine’s article on “The Obama Doctrine” has caused ripples all over the world, because of the frankness with which the US president discussed his foreign policy with Jeffrey Goldberg, the article’s author. In the UK, most of the headlines have concerned President Obama’s criticism of David Cameron, over Libya. But, in fact, the article is full of fascinating stuff on all sorts of subjects. Here are some of my selected highlights:

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Donald Trump’s press conference in Florida today was like a Peter Sellers movie. Ben Carson, the neurosurgeon who recently quit the race, endorsed Trump and said there were “two different Donald Trumps” – the public persona and the private “cerebral” persona who would be appearing more frequently on the trail.

Asked about this, the cerebral Trump said: “Perhaps there are two Donald Trumps”. But minutes later his alter-ego corrected him: “I don’t think there are two Donald Trumps”. Trump likes to shout “Stand up!” to human props at his rallies. Well, would the @realDonaldTrump please stand up! Read more

 

What are we to make of President Barack Obama’s on-the-record criticism of the role of UK Prime Minister David Cameron over Libya? I would make four points. First, Mr Obama is trying to protect himself from criticism. Second, broadly speaking, Mr Obama is right. Third, that said, it is not clear that there were good alternatives in Libya that Mr Cameron somehow failed to embrace. Fourth, the larger context is US exasperation and alarm at the decline of Europeans as effective security partners in the Middle East and elsewhere. Read more

I found myself mesmerised on Monday looking at the Italy page of a website called National Debt Clocks.org. A 13-digit figure, representing Italy’s outstanding national debt, goes up by a couple of thousand euros every second. Now the debt is just under €2.2tn, or about 133 per cent of Italy’s annual economic output.

Despite its astronomical debt burden, the Italian government succeeded last October in selling two-year bonds at a negative yield. In other words, investors paid Italy, one of the planet’s most indebted nations for the past quarter of a century, for the honour of buying its debt.

This is a topsy-turvy world that inspires me with something less than full confidence in financial markets. It leads me to the topical question of whether Italian banks own too much Italian government debt for their own good. On this issue Matteo Renzi, Italy’s prime minister, holds forthright viewsRead more

The Republican debate on Thursday ​elevated farce to new heights. ​​Donald Trump ​raised eyebrows when he hit back at earlier innuendo by Marco Rubio about his masculinity.

“He referred to my hands [suggesting that] if they are small, something else must be small. I guarantee you there is no problem. I guarantee,” he told the roughly 17m viewers who tuned in to the debate. Read more

By Gideon Rachman

There was a time when Karl-Theodor zu Guttenberg was widely tipped to succeed Angela Merkel as chancellor of Germany. Good-looking, aristocratic, married to a descendant of Bismarck and beloved by the popular press, zu Guttenberg had cut a dash, first as a decisive economics minister, and then as Germany’s youngest defence minister — appointed at the age of 37 in 2009. And then, in two disastrous weeks in early 2011, his gilded career fell apart, after it was revealed that he had plagiarised large parts of his doctoral thesis. Within two weeks, zu Guttenberg had resigned from the German government. Shortly afterwards, he left for a career in business in the US.

The Donald Trump media feeding-frenzy is in full flow. But beyond all the fun stuff about the horse-race and the insults, have there been any really good articles explaining the Trump phenomenon? I have found two recent pieces particularly interesting. Thomas Edsall explains how – “The economic basis for voter anger has been building for over 40 years” – and has some interesting numbers on the stagnation of real wages, the shrinking of the middle-class, the disappearance of manufacturing jobs and the impact of Chinese accession to the WTO.

Another good analysis, this time on the Vox site, looks at the kinds of people who are attracted to Trump’s rhetoric – and in particular at political scientists’ work on the rise of authoritarian attitudes in America. Apparently, people’s attitudes to parenting are a good predictor of their attitudes to Trump. Those who value obedience in children, above all, are “authoritarian” types, who also like Trump. But there are also is a large group of people with “latent authoritarianism”, which is aroused when they feel under threat. Read more

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Maybe we should rename this newsletter “White House Meltdown” after the Republican debate in Texas which saw Marco Rubio launch waron Donald Trump. While the presidential contenders brawled in Texas, Lindsey Graham, the South Carolina senator who last week told me that the GOP was facing its own Shia-Sunni conflict, said his party “has gone bats**t crazy”.Back in September, Jerry Springer, the host of the eponymous show, tweeted that “watching the Repubs debate…if they’re going to do my show, the least they could do is ask me!” What would Springer say about the debate last night, which resembled a Monty Python sketch? Josh Earnest, White House press secretary, described it as a “Texas demolition derby”.

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North Mitrovica, in northern Kosovo, one of Europe's most desolate places

To understand why tensions are rising in Kosovo, it is not enough to know about poverty and high unemployment, organised crime and widespread official corruption, family memories of war and ethnic cleansing. You also need to know what it feels like to live as a second-class citizen – either of your own society, or of the world. Read more

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Donald Trump is winning more friends. While many mainstream Republicans pull their punches when asked about the tycoon and his inflammatory rhetoric, Vincente Fox, the former president of Mexico, today showed his cojones – to use a favourite expression of Madeline Albright, former secretary of state.

“I’m not going to pay for that f*****g wall,” Fox told Jorge Ramos, a prominent Mexican-American journalist who was once evicted from a Trump rally. “He should pay for it. He’s got the money.” Read more

The blocking of Evo Morales’ desire to run for a fourth consecutive presidential term in Bolivia is an encouraging result in Latin America’s “War on Checks and Balances”.

Mr Morales, who has already ruled for ten years, could have remained in power until 2025 if he had won Sunday’s referendum. (As of Monday evening, with 80 per cent of the vote in, the “No’s” stood at 55 per cent.) To the extent that a small, poor and landlocked country has global meaning, Bolivia’s example may even be an encouraging result for countries elsewhere. Yoweri Museveni, for example, has ruled Uganda for 30 years – and won another five year term last week. Read more

Poland's rightwing PiS government is engaged in a ruthless campaign against its critics. One such critic is Lech Walesa

Probably only Lech Walesa really knows what went on between him and Poland’s communist-era secret police. But for the health of modern Polish democracy, for the image that Poles have of themselves and for Poland’s international reputation, it would be best to establish the truth, or as much of it as possible. Sad to say, this is a forlorn hope in today’s febrile Polish political atmosphere.

Walesa, now a white-haired 72-year-old, is a former Polish president. He founded Solidarity, the independent trade union and mass patriotic movement that overthrew communism by peaceful means in the 1980s. He won the Nobel peace prize in 1983.

He made an indelible contribution to the cause of democracy and human rights in central and eastern Europe. He deserves to be mentioned in the same breath as Vaclav Havel and Andrei Sakharov, the brave Czech and Russian campaigners for freedom.

Was he also, as alleged on Thursday, a paid informant for the security services in the 1970s? I shall address this below. What is important is to underline that a proper perspective on Walesa requires placing his career in its full historical context. Read more

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With the South Carolina Republican primary one week away, most of the GOP candidates, including Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, were courting evangelicals in the Palmetto State. Mr Bush is also rolling out his brother, former president George W. Bush, on Monday for his first public appearance on the campaign trail. Read more

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John Kasich, the Ohio governor who came second in New Hampshire, is not expected to expend much energy in the state where there is less support for his moderate conservatism. He will focus on Michigan, which votes on March 8 and is seen as a must-win for him. That leaves Mr Bush and Mr Rubio dueling in South Carolina for the establishment mantle that they and Mr Kasich are all hoping to claim. Read more

There is a wonderful passage in Jonathan Swift’s “Gulliver’s Travels” about the war between Little-Endians in Lilliput and Big-Endians in Blefuscu over how to open a hard-boiled egg.

It would be extremely rude of me to suggest that the uproar in France about the proper use of the circumflex is in any way comparable to the goings-on in Swift’s satire. Read more