Foreign affairs

Gideon Rachman Foreign visitors to the Middle Kingdom

April 24, 2013 9:55 am by Gideon Rachman

US military chief Gen Martin Dempsey meets Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing. AP

Perhaps it is excitement over the new Chinese leadership. Perhaps it is simply a tribute to the growing centrality of the Middle Kingdom. But Beijing seems to be full of foreign visitors, trying to get the measure of the place.

There is me for a start – enjoying the first clear day since I arrived in the city on Sunday. Lionel Barber, the editor of the FT is also in town – or so I infer from his Twitter feed. Twitter also tells me that Niall Ferguson, the Harvard historian is here. In fact, I think he gave a talk in the hotel I’m staying in – although I have yet to bump into him in the lobby. Read more

Posted in Foreign affairs |

Gideon Rachman Taiwan’s return to the security spotlight

April 21, 2013 10:19 pm by Gideon Rachman

Over the past year, there have been security and war scares all over East Asia – but Taiwan, the traditional hot spot, remained strikingly cool. In recent months, Japan and China have jostled over their disputed islands and the North Koreans have threatened America and the South with nuclear weapons. By contrast, Taiwan has not been at the centre of a good war scare since the Straits crisis of 1996. Visiting the island, a few weeks ago, I was told by a senior member of the security establishment that – “We look like an island of calm in a boiling sea.”

Perhaps the Taiwanese were feeling left out? Because, together with China, they have succeeded in creating some waves over the past week. First, the Taiwanese government staged its first live-fire security exercise since 2008. And this event was swiftly followed by the revelation that China has deployed missiles near the island that are capable of threatening American aircraft carriers. This is significant, because the carriers are the basis of American power in the Pacific. And, in the Straits crisis of the mid-90s, it was the dispatch of US carriers to the area that signalled that America was taking a tough stance. Read more

Posted in Asia, China, Foreign affairs, North Korea, trade, US foreign policy, War, World affairs |

Esther Bintliff Reinhart and Rogoff: your essential reading list

April 17, 2013 5:13 pm by Esther Bintliff

Want to make your own mind up over Reinhart-Rogoff? Here are links to the original working papers that gave us the mother of all economic dust-ups, the responses of the two sets of authors, and some great secondary sources.

PRIMARY sources:

The working paper by Carmen M Reinhart and Kenneth S Rogoff, published in January 2010:

The critique of the Reinhart-Rogoff research, by Thomas Herndon, Michael Ash and Robert Pollin, published on April 15 2013:

Reinhart and Rogoff respond:

Ash and Pollin respond to the response:

And a selection of SECONDARY sources:

Here’s the post by Rortybomb blogger Mike Konczal that brought the critique to the attention of the masses. Konczal notes that the episode is “good evidence for why you should release your data online, so it can be properly vetted.”

Over at Slate, Matthew Yglesias asked:

FT Alphaville’s Cardiff Garcia and Joseph Cotterill shared their thoughts on the debate:

Paul Krugman has been busy:

 Read more

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Posted in Financial crisis, Foreign affairs |

Why China won’t mind slower growth (but others will)

April 15, 2013 9:42 pm by Lindsay Whipp

If commodities exporters were pinning hopes on an acceleration in Chinese growth, Monday was not a good start to the week. The disappointing gross domestic product statistics for the first quarter give the likes of Australia, Brazil and Indonesia plenty to be worried about.

As one investor put it: “For the global economy this data is bad news. Commodity exporters are screwed (especially those needing exports to China as key component). I would be very worried about places like Brazil, Indonesia, Australia and the like. The current level of GDP growth in China is OK with China but not OK for the currencies above.” Read more

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Posted in China, Foreign affairs, Global economy |

Political dynasties: what’s in a name?

April 15, 2013 5:04 pm by Sarah Witt
Justin Trudeau with his wife Sophie Gregoire at a film premiere in September 2012 (Photo by Jemal Countess/Getty Images)

Justin Trudeau with his wife Sophie Gregoire (Getty)

Historically, the legislative class has often liked to keep it in the family. And while hereditary titles have fallen out of fashion in most modern democracies, political dynasties appear to be thriving nonetheless.

The latest scion of a political leader to seek office is Justin Trudeau, 41-year-old son of Canada’s former prime minister, the swashbuckling Pierre Trudeau.

Justin was elected leader of Canada’s Liberal party on Sunday.

The ruling Conservative party greeted the news of Trudeau Junior’s victory somewhat sniffily, with Fred DeLorey, the Conservative party’s director of communications, saying:

“Justin Trudeau may have a famous last name, but in a time of global economic uncertainty, he doesn’t have the judgment or experience to be prime minister.”

Perhaps mindful of that kind of criticism, Justin Trudeau was careful in his acceptance speech to mix confidence – “More than one hundred thousand voters have sent a clear message: Canadians want better leadership” – with modesty: “I take nothing for granted. I understand that trust can only be earned. And my plan is to earn yours.”

George W. Bush and his father George H.W. Bush in 2010 (Stephen Dunn/Getty)

George W. Bush and his father George H.W. Bush in 2010 (Stephen Dunn/Getty)

The Trudeaus are of course part of a long tradition of North American political clans, from the Kennedys and the Clintons to presidents Bush I and II – despite America’s Founding Fathers’ concerns around the implications of power flowing through blood.

But it is in Asia where political dynasties have really flourished. In India, the Nehru-Gandhi dynasty has provided three prime ministers since the country’s Independence in 1947. Rahul Gandhi, 42-year-old great-grandson of Jawaharlal Nehru, India’s first prime minister, is tipped to be the Congress party’s candidate for India’s 2014 election. But the prospect of yet another Gandhi at the helm has met with criticism in some quarters.

“Essentially he has nothing besides his name,” Ramachandra Guha, a historian, said when Gandhi was promoted to the role of the Congress party’s vice president earlier this year. Read more

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Posted in Foreign affairs |

John Paul Rathbone Venezuela’s election: a fading dream

April 15, 2013 7:47 am by John Paul Rathbone

Nicolas Maduro celebrates with his wife, Cilia Flores, after being declared the winner of Venezuela's presidential election (Reuters).

Only six weeks in the grave, and Hugo Chávez’s socialist dream is fading fast. Last night, the chosen successor of “el commandante”, Nicolas Maduro, won Venezuela’s presidential election, but only by a whisker.

Maduro – “the self-proclaimed son of Chavez” – got 50.7 per cent of the vote, versus 49.1 per cent for Henrique Capriles, the opposition leader. That compares to an 11 point win for Chavez in October’s presidential election. Capriles has refused to accept the result until the votes are fully audited.

Assume, for now, that the result stands and no evidence is found of jiggery-pokery. That is still no kind of mandate for Maduro and Venezuela’s ruling socialist party. This is a country split down the middle. Such a close result will also undermine Maduro’s standing within the ruling socialist party. The 50-year old former foreign minister and bus driver will struggle to reconcile chavismo’s various factions, many of whom may think they could do a better job. But the country is in a mess, whoever comes to govern it. Read more

Posted in Chavez, Foreign affairs, Latin America, Venezuela |

Daniel Dombey In the pipeline: an Israeli-Turkish reconciliation

April 12, 2013 5:10 pm by Daniel Dombey

Photo by Getty

An energy and diplomacy deal that would reshape the map of the eastern Mediterranean might be proceeding faster than many people think.

It is just a few weeks since, in a bid to revive frozen diplomatic ties, Israel apologised to Turkey for a deadly raid that left nine Turkish citizens dead. The process was still sufficiently shaky for US Secretary of State John Kerry to come to Istanbul last weekend to chivvy both sides to go all the way and exchange ambassadors.

There are plenty of potential slips on the way ahead: compensation has to be agreed; the fate of Turkish court cases against retired Israeli commanders has to be decided (at present, they are going ahead); and Ankara still has to pronounce itself satisfied with the lifting of restrictions on civilian goods to Gaza (relevant, because the flotilla stormed by Israeli Defence Forces in 2010 was seeking to break the Gaza blockade). Read more

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Posted in Foreign affairs, Israel, Palestine, Turkey, World affairs |

Smart Reads April 12, 2013

April 12, 2013 3:23 pm by Amie Tsang

♦ Kenya’s new leader Uhuru Kenyatta is proving deft at politics even with a charge for crimes against humanity hanging over his head.

♦ Jonathan Soble looks at the dilemma that Haruhiko Kuroda faces over the next two years – “How do you convince markets and consumers that you are serious about raising prices, without being so dogmatic that you risk the central bank’s credibility – and your job – if you fail?”

♦ Margaret Thatcher’s death has prompted a wave of nostalgia among US conservatives.

♦ Sarah Neville, the FT’s public policy editor, thinks welfare reforms in the UK are likely to test the resolve of the middle class. (You can find out more about the reforms in today’s additions to the FT Austerity Audit.)

♦ Nicolás Maduro summons the ghost of Hugo Chávez in the final days of his campaign, a move he is counting on to propel him to victory at Sunday’s presidential elections.

♦ Hugo Chávez may have made himself enormously popular by subsidising fuel, but his policy has damaged long-term prospects for Venezuela’s economy.

♦ Jon Lee Anderson recalls his earliest memories of living in Seoul when his father was working in the Korean demilitarised zone.

♦ Jack Goldstone at Foreign Policy thinks there “is a real risk that the Korean Peninsula will follow Syria’s descent into war”. (Although you might not have to worry. The military’s planned missile test has been “put on hold because of “problems with Windows 8”, according to the Borowitz Report.)  Read more

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Posted in Foreign affairs, Smart Reads |

John Paul Rathbone How can-do Colombia left Venezuela in the shade

April 10, 2013 5:12 pm by John Paul Rathbone

The optimism of the early Chávez years is fading (Getty)

Landing in Maiquetia, Venezuela’s main international airport, is always a bit like stepping through the looking glass no matter where you’re coming from. But arriving from neighbouring Colombia is a stark reminder of just how far the fortunes of these two countries have diverged over the past 15 years or so.

At the turn of the century, Colombia was under the cosh – from the guerrillas, the paramilitaries, drug traffickers, often all at the same time. Bogotá was an austere, gloomy place. The only way seemed to be down. Today, its refurbished El Dorado airport is all gleaming efficiency – perhaps the slickest entrepôt on the continent. The capital’s streets are thrumming, the Colombian personality remains upbeat and can-do, democracy is effervescent (and bumpy, like all healthy democracies), inflation is low, and while the country’s peace talks with the Farc guerrillas is sometimes a halting process, government security officials have a spring in their step. I suspect the talks are going far better than many believe and a deal could be possible in a number of months. Peace could then see the economy really take off and the country properly attack its glaring inequalities and income disparities.

In Venezuela everything is al reves – the opposite. Read more

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Posted in Colombia, Foreign affairs, Global economy, Latin America, Venezuela |

Hollande’s camel: one hump or two?

April 9, 2013 6:28 pm by Hugh Carnegy

A camel (Abid Katib/Getty)

Some good news at last for François Hollande, mired in a furious scandal over a former minister’s secret Swiss bank account: a new camel is on the way from Mali.

In a dispatch worthy of Evelyn Waugh’s Scoop, Reuters reported from Bamako on Tuesday that Malian authorities planned to send a replacement to Paris for the camel presented to Mr Hollande in grateful thanks for France’s military intervention in Mali when he visited the country in February.

The first animal, defence minister Yves Le Drian reported earlier in the week, was killed and eaten by the family Mr Hollande had left it with in Timbuktu.

The president, who before winning the Elysée Palace liked to buzz around Paris on his three-wheeled scooter, joked at the time that the camel would come in handy for getting about the congested capital. But the complicated logistics of shipping the beast back to France apparently led to the decision to entrust it instead to a local family – who promptly made it into stew.

Reuters reported that an official in northern Mali said:

“As soon as we heard of this, we quickly replaced it with a bigger and better-looking camel.

“The new camel will be sent to Paris. We are ashamed of what happened to the camel. It was a present and it did not deserve this fate.”

 Read more

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Posted in Foreign affairs, France |
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