Global economy

(c) World Economic Forum

By Martin Arnold, Banking Editor

Two of the world’s most senior bankers sought to rebuff the charges of their critics by arguing the industry had become safer since the financial crisis thanks to higher capital levels, lower leverage, reformed pay structures and a tougher regulatory scrutiny.

Douglas Flint, chairman of HSBC, said of the financial crisis: “Nobody in that room [the HSBC boardroom] ever wants to take the risk of ever being in that situation again.”

Speaking on a panel at the World Economic Forum in Davos, he added that the HSBC board was spending half to two-thirds of its time “dealing with the aftermath of the crisis”.

Antony Jenkins, chief executive of Barclays, said: “Where the system failed and where institutions failed within that was where they mis-priced risk.” Arguing that banks had increased the levels of capital they held and reduced their leverage, he added that “changes
in conduct” had also reduced the chances of the 2008 crisis being repeated. Read more

Chris Giles

The West is forever petrified of Chinese and Indian growth that might destroy advanced economy standards of living. Politicians fuel that fear. In the UK, David Cameron, prime minister, talks repeatedly about a “global race” and the need for sacrifices so Britain can succeed in that race. His predecessor Gordon Brown used to repeat one of his favourite statistics that there were 4 million graduates a year coming out of China and India and only 250,000 in the UK.

In a panel on the world of work, business leaders with experience in working in both advanced and emerging markets had a very different story to tell. There was a huge shortage of skilled workers, they all agreed, and a surfeit of unskilled. Emerging economies education systems were not up to scratch and there was still a need for ex pats and a lot of investment in basic education in emerging markets. Read more

Tony Barber

GEORGES GOBET/AFP/GettyImages

Here is a startling prediction from the European Commission. In the absence of comprehensive economic reforms, living standards in the eurozone, relative to the US, will be lower in 2023 than they were in the mid-1960s.

This forecast, contained in the Commission’s latest quarterly report on the euro area economy, deserves to be displayed prominently on the wall of every president and prime minister’s office in Europe.

It is a sobering prediction for two reasons. First, it contrasts starkly with the comforting tales of economic recovery and financial market stability on which Europe’s leaders are congratulating themselves in these early weeks of 2014. Second, it raises profound questions about Europe’s relative weight in the world and, in particular, about its military alliance and economic partnership with the US. Read more

Gideon Rachman

At the end of every year, I attempt a first draft of history by listing what seem to me to be the five most significant events of the past twelve months. Some of my picks for 2013 also featured in 2012. I hope this is not because of intellectual laziness, but simply because the war in Syria, and the turmoil in Egypt remain defining events of our era. I probably should also once again include the tensions between China and Japan – but they are still simmering and have not yet boiled over. So I’ll give the Senkaku-Diaoyu islands a rest this year.

So let me start the list for 2013 with a genuinely new event that has global significance: Read more

Sunny Stockholm – Getty

Stockholm looks bright and brisk today, unlike some of the scientists and government officials who were heading into a large brick conference centre on the city’s waterfront at 8am this morning.

They had been working through the night until 2:30am to finalise the most comprehensive climate science report in six years for the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The bulk of the report is finished, having been drafted by 259 scientists from 39 countries over the last four years, with the help of more than 600 contributing authors.

The Stockholm meeting, which started on Monday and is closed to the public and journalists, is finishing its most widely-read section: a 31-page summary for policymakers that governments have to approve before release, in consultation with some of the scientists who wrote it.

The summary is based on the larger report and its basic conclusion – that human influence on the climate caused most of the global warming recorded since 1951 – cannot change.

But the way its many findings are expressed are very much up for debate and with just one day left before the summary is due to be released on Friday morning, delegates are braced for another long night tonight. Read more

It’s no secret that the US is at the centre of global trade. But how is what it trades with the world changing? The US International Trade Commission, the independent government agency which investigates anti-dumping cases in the US and also acts as a trade data clearinghouse, this week put out its annual “Shifts in US Merchandise” report. Here’s four things in the report worth thinking about:

1. Americans love their cars and their iPhones. They were the biggest contributors to the $10bn widening of the US trade deficit in 2012. Read more

By Catherine Contiguglia

Emerging market currencies are sliding as the beginning of the end looms for the US Federal Reserve’s ultra-loose monetary policy, and economic growth continues to stagnate while current account deficits grow. India’s rupee is leading the drop after a clumsy policy response spooked investors. Though policy makers are now focused on reducing the current account deficit and foreign currency reserves are much stronger than they were before the 1991 balance of payments crisis, the size of India’s economy means any downturn could have a significant impact on the global economy.

♦ Saudi Arabia is backing Egypt’s military rulers with oil money and diplomatic might and that could well undercut US and European efforts to apply pressure by cutting aid to Cairo following the bloody crackdown by Egyptian security forces on Islamist supporters of deposed president Mohamed Morsi.

“It may not be long before it will be impossible for journalists to have confidential sources,” writes the Guardian editor Alan Rusbridger, reflecting on the recent detainment of a reporter’s partner in connection with the paper’s publication of information from US National Security Agency whistleblower Edward Snowden.

A detail not often noted about Turkey’s Gezi protests is that many of the frontline protesters have been women, whose situation has lagged far behind international standards on almost every measure in the ten years Prime Minister Recep Tayppid Erdogan has been in office.

The economic gap between blacks and whites in the United States has not budged for 50 years, the Washington Post points out in a set of charts that show how “yawning” disparities have persisted since 1963.” Read more

Ben Bernanke makes what is likely to be his final appearance before Congress this week. The Federal Reserve chief repeats the central bank’s intention to slow its $85bn a month in asset purchases later this year if the economy stays strong, but says that would not mean a weakening of Fed support for the US economy.

By James Politi in Washington. All times are BST

 

Jacob Frenkel, currently a chairman of JPMorgan International, will return as governor of the central bank of Israel, 13 years after leaving in 2000. He is taking over from the respected Stanley Fischer who will resign June 30, in an economic environment of slowing growth and rising property prices. Here is a handful of interesting reads (and a video) on his appointment and his past. Read more

When we look back on the FOMC meeting on June 19 2013, it will probably be seen as the moment when the Fed signalled that it was beginning the long and gradual exit from its programme of unconventional monetary easing. The reason for this was clear in the committee’s statement, which said that the downside risks to economic activity had diminished since last autumn, presumably because the US economy had navigated the fiscal tightening better than expected and the risks surrounding the euro had abated.

This was the smoking gun in the statement. With downside risks declining, the need for an emergency programme of monetary easing was no longer so compelling. The Fed has been the unequivocal friend of the markets for much of the time since 2009, and certainly ever since last September. That comfortable assumption no longer applies.

 Read more