Category: Iraq

I have just spent a week in Washington, where many people assured me that a bitter and partisan debate is taking place over American foreign policy. I am not so sure. Having dutifully read the pronouncements of the leading candidates for the presidency – and talked to many of their advisers – I have drafted the following speech, which I am confident could be given by any of the main Republican or Democratic contenders:

‘‘My fellow Americans, our troops in Iraq have performed heroically and have done everything that has been asked of them. Under my presidency I will seek to bring our brave men and women home. But there will be no precipitate withdrawal from Iraq. We will secure our vital national interests.

“Our nation faces awesome challenges in Iraq and in the struggle against global jihadism. But I take inspiration from the ‘greatest generation’, which won the second world war, and from the statesmen who led us to victory in the cold war – men like George C. Marshall and Harry Truman.

The remainder of this week’s column can be read here (FT.com subscribers only). Comments can be made below.

I thought President Bush did a good job in his television address on Iraq last night (view video, transcript). He must have done. For a couple of minutes, I was almost convinced.

As expected, Bush made the case that the “surge” has worked. His speech was full of encouraging little anecdotes. He set out the moral and strategic case for persevering in Iraq with conviction. And he tried to build some sort of bipartisan consensus, by holding out the hope that the troop withdrawals he announced are just the beginning.

But – in the end – it doesn’t convince for two main reasons.

I am sitting in a hotel room in Washington. The television is on in the background, because I’m hoping to catch more Congressional testimony from General David Petraeus. But even the mainstream news channels seem to be losing interest. They keep cutting away to other stuff – commemoration services for 9/11, Osama’s new video. All the news channels carried Petraeus live yesterday, when he testified before the House Foreign Affairs committees. Today, he and Ambassador Ryan Crocker are appearing before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, which should be even more interesting – since his inquisitors include Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama. But Petraeus fatigue has set in already.

It’s been a while since I watched hours of Congresssional testimony at a stretch. Yesterday was interesting, partly because it reminded me of the massive self-importance of Congress – neither Petraeus or Crocker got to say anything for almost an hour, while the committee members droned away. Their attitude seemed to be – "I’m really glad you’ve come all the way from Iraq, because there are a few things I’d like to get off my chest."

Petraeus says that the surge is working, which infuriates the anti-war crowd. But the people at Moveon.org scored an own goal, even before the general appeared before Congress, by publishing a full-page ad in the New York Times calling him "General Betray Us". This was so over-the-top that it was a gift to the Republicans.

Mind you, sotto voce, even some senior Republicans are not totally convinced by the general.

The symbolism of getting General David Petraeus to testify before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the anniversary of 9/11 appealed to the White House. It should not have. It is crass. General Petraeus’s struggle to salvage the Iraq war merely underlines the fact that invading Iraq was a crazy way to respond to the terrorist attacks on New York and Washington.

Six years after 9/11, the US needs to re-think. It is now clear that Iraq was the biggest blunder of the Bush years. It is also becoming evident that counter-terrorism should no longer be the centrepiece of American foreign policy. As the official 9/11 commission demonstrated, Saddam Hussein played no role in the terrorist attacks. He also had no nuclear weapons and no significant relationship with al-Qaeda.

But the Iraq invasion was not simply the wrong response to 9/11. It has actually made the terrorism problem worse in five significant ways.

The remainder of this week’s column can be read here (FT.com subscribers only). Comments can be made below.

I realise this sounds egomaniacal, but I can’t help reading President Bush’s recent speech to American veterans as a belated reply to a column that I wrote last November. The FT’s dreaded subscription barrier may prevent you reading the whole thing, so let me summarise the basic argument:

I wrote that the parallels between the Iraq and Vietnam wars were becoming increasingly eerie. In both cases, the US went on a war for reasons that were subsequently discredited. In both cases, the administration expressed high hopes about the export of democracy – but disillusionment set in rapidly. As casualties mounted (they were much higher in Vietnam), support for the war in the US drained away.

The big question is whether the two wars will end in the same way? Will it be helicopters off the roof at the American Embassy in Baghdad in a couple of years time? And if so, what will the consequences be for America and the region?

President Bush is now engaged in a two-fronts war over Iraq. There is the battle in Iraq itself, and then there is the political battle back in Washington. To win the struggle in Washington, he needs to convince American politicians and the public that there is hope in Iraq. And that – in a modest and halting way – is what the interim report issued today does. It claims that progress has been made and pleads for more time.

The trouble is, how much time is enough? In a dangerous moment of candour earlier this week, General David Petraeus – the US commander in Iraq – told the BBC that typical counter-insurgenices can take decades to succeed. He cited the British experience in Northern Ireland, which actually took more than 30 years – and ended with a political settlement.

The trouble is that Iraq is considerably more daunting than Northern Ireland. The Americans have lost 3,600 troops, which is far more men than Britain ever lost in Ulster. Nor does there seem to be any prospect of reaching a political deal with the hard core of the insurgency – al-Qaeda.

The decision by Congress to authorise extra funding for the Iraq war – without setting a deadline for withdrawal – is being portrayed in some places as a capitulation by the anti-war crowd. Not at all. It simply means that the crucial political struggle over withdrawal from Iraq has been delayed a few months.

The real battle is going to take place in September. At that point, all of the American troops set aside for "the surge" will have been in Iraq for several months. In September General David Petraeus, on whom so many American hopes are hanging, is also due to give a crucial "status report" to Congress. If the news looks bad, then Congressional moves to get the troops out will begin in earnest. The Iraqi insurgents will doubtless factor this into their calculations. President Bush is already predicting a bloody August.

If you happen to be passing though Malibu next month, why not pop into an intriguing-sounding conference at Pepperdine University on "The Collapse of Europe". One of the early sessions is entitled – "Eurabia: Is Muslim domination of Europe inevitable?"

My answer to this is "No" it’s not inevitable. In fact, given that the Muslim population of Europe is just 4% at the moment, I would say it’s highly unlikely. But don’t trying telling that to an audience of American conservatives. The idea that Europe is about to be submerged by the Muslim hordes seems to be almost recieved wisdom over there. It is certainly a notion that has launched a great many books. There is “Eurabia: The Euro-Arab Axis” by Bat Ye’or; “While Europe Slept – How Radical Islam is Destroying the West from Within” by Bruce Bawer; “The Death of the West” by Pat Buchanan; and “The Cube and the Cathedral” by George Weigel.

I was sitting in a café in Washington, DC, last week, reading the papers, when I came across an article that almost made me choke on my blueberry muffin. The gist of the story was that the American military “surge” in Iraq is working. Baghdad is more secure; there are fewer sectarian killings; the number of bombings is down; the policy of “clear and hold” is proving effective.

My reaction had nothing to do with incredulity – although that might well have been in order, given last week’s rash of fatal explosions and mortar attacks in the Iraqi capital. No, I am ashamed to say that I caught myself thinking: “Oh no! I wrote that the surge was a bad idea. If it works, I might look silly.” Unfortunately, I think that kind of reaction is hardly unique in Washington these days. As Congress battles over a new Iraq policy, there are two Iraq wars going on. There is the real war, thousands of miles away, in which people are dying. And there is the domestic political war in Washington, where “Iraq” is above all a means to wrong-foot your political opponents.

The remainder of Gideon Rachman’s column can be read here (FT.com subscribers only).

This week marks the start of the fifth year that the US has been involved in a war in Iraq. Every stock-taking on the TV and in the papers seems to have the same stats: 3,210 American dead; 65,000 Iraqi dead (although nobody really knows); $300 billion spent. In Congress, the Democrats are trying to pass a bill that would ensure that all American troops are out of Iraq by autumn 2008.

In his fourth anniversary message yesterday, President Bush said he would veto any bill containing an arbitrary deadline. Bush’s tone was appropriately solemn and dour. He has finally learnt to avoid "mission accomplished" boastfulness. The new tone coming out of the administration is epitomised by Bob Gates – the defence secretary. He has completely eschewed Rumsfeldian cockiness and the "stuff happens" approach. On television over the weekend he made a point of saying that he writes to the family of every American killed in Iraq.

People I know at the State Department say that the internal Washington war between the Pentagon, State and the National Security Council has effectively ended now that Rumsfeld and his coterie are out of power. Gates is also deliberately not prematurely claiming success for "the surge" of American troops into Iraq.

But behind the scenes the Bush people are actually more bullish than I have seen them for a while.

The World

with Gideon Rachman

About this blog About Gideon Blog guide
Gideon Rachman and his FT colleagues debate international affairs.

Gideon became chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times in July 2006. He joined the FT after a 15-year career at The Economist, which included spells as a foreign correspondent in Brussels, Washington and Bangkok. He also edited The Economist’s business and Asia sections.

His particular interests include American foreign policy, the European Union and globalisation
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