Israel

The endless guessing game about whether Israel is planning to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities in the coming months continues. Now we have two pieces of fresh evidence – but they seem to point in opposite directions. First, there is the outbreak of dissent amongst top Israeli securocrats – several of whom have gone on the record, to say that an attack on Iran would be a v.bad idea. On the other hand, Netanyahu has just formed a government of national unity - which includes three former chiefs of the defence staff.

Articles about the threat of a war over Iran’s nuclear programme often refer to Israeli pressure for an attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities. There is no doubt that Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel’s prime minister and Ehud Barak, his defence minister, are in the hawkish camp on Iran. What is much less clear is whether these two actually speak for Israel as a whole – or even for the whole of the government.

This report from Haaretz, a liberal Israeli paper, has two interesting snippets in it. First, it suggests that Netanyahu and Barak are still struggling to win clear-cut support for an attack from an inner quorum of eight senior ministers in the government. (It is already well known that several senior figures in the Israeli security establishment are opposed to an attack.) Second, the paper reports an opinion poll that suggests that less than 50% of the Israeli public currently support an attack on Iran. The poll suggests 41% in favour, and 39% opposed – with the rest undecided. And when Israelis are asked if they support a unilateral attack, without US support – and that’s the only real option, at the moment – then opposition rises to 58% against an attack.

Those numbers are worth remembering, the next time you read about “Israel” pressing for an assault on Iran.

By Gideon Rachman

The question of whether a war will break out over Iran’s nuclear programme has been around for so long that it is easy to become almost blasé. In 2006 Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, was already asserting dramatically: “It’s 1938 and Iran is Germany.”

Gilad Shalit crossed into Egypt’s Sinai peninsula this morning at the start of a highly emotional day of prisoner exchanges between Israel and the Palestinian Hamas. The 25-year-old soldier captured five years ago by Hamas will be receiving a hero’s welcome in Israel, and Palestinians will celebrate the return of 477 prisoners, the first batch in the 1,000-to-one exchange.

Just a day after the visit to Tripoli by Nicolas Sarkozy and David Cameron, the Libyan National Transitional Council played host to another foreign leader – Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey. The Brits and the French might have regarded it as a bit cheeky of Erdogan to roll up in Tripoli to try and bask in the success of the revolution, given that the Turkish prime minister had initially opposed Nato intervention. But the Turks saw it a bit differently. Some of the papers here in Istanbul reported that the British and the French leaders had rushed to Tripoli to upstage the Turkish prime minister. Erdogan himself seemed to see things this way, remarking sniffily – “We’ll see who gets the better reception.”

Ever since I first saw the Besiktas football ground in Istanbul, I have wanted to watch a match there. It is the most spectacularly situated stadium I have ever seen – right in the centre of the city, just above the Bosphorous on the European side.

Tonight I had a chance to mix pleasure with business, since Besiktas were playing Maccabi Tel Aviv. Given the state of relations between Turkey and Israel, this felt more like a political event than a mere football match.

It is safe to say that the US government is dreading the prospect of a UN Security Council vote on Palestine’s bid for statehood later this month. At present the Americans reckon they could well lose such a vote 14-1, which would be a humiliation. It is possible that Britain, France and Germany (in particular) might abstain – but the Americans aren’t counting on it.

The crisis in Israel’s relations with Turkey and Egypt - combined with the anniversary of 9/11 - casts an interesting light on the question of Israel’s relations with the neocons in America. If you remember, at the time of the invasion of Iraq,  one of the most popular conspiracy theories was that US policy was being driven by a cabal of neoconservative thinkers – many of them Jewish – who were accused of acting at the behest of Israel.

There is no doubt that many of the neocons were and are strong supporters of Israel. But there were actually always philosophical differences between important neocon thinkers like Robert Kagan and Bill Kristol, and the Netanyahu government. Above all, they differed on the desireability of democracy in the Arab world.

The news that Recep Tayyip Erdogan, the Turkish prime minister, is considering visiting the Gaza Strip raises the possibility of a sharp escalation in Turkey’s dispute with Israel. The two countries dispute dates back to 2010 and Israel’s storming of the Mavi Marmara, a ship that was trying to break Israel’s blockade of Gaza – some eight Turkish citizens were killed during the Israeli attack.

Gaddafi, gold, Gaza

In this week’s podcast: Is the conflict in Libya finally coming to an end? The world’s new craze for gold; and, Gaza, renewed violence dashes hopes for ceasefire.

Presented by Gideon Rachman with James Blitz and Edward Hadas in the studio in London, and Tobias Buck in Jerusalem. Produced by LJ Filotrani.

The World

with Gideon Rachman

About this blog About Gideon Blog guide
Gideon Rachman and his FT colleagues debate international affairs. Read more on the authors.

Gideon became chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times in July 2006. He joined the FT after a 15-year career at The Economist, which included spells as a foreign correspondent in Brussels, Washington and Bangkok. He also edited The Economist’s business and Asia sections.

His particular interests include American foreign policy, the European Union and globalisation
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