Closed US election coverage: Donald Trump wins the White House – as it happened

Republican Presidential Nominee Donald Trump Holds Election Night Event In New York City

One of the most divisive presidential contests in US history ended dramatically on Wednesday morning with Donald Trump winning the White House.

Key points

  • Donald Trump surged past the required 270 votes needed to win by 2:33AM EST.

  • Hillary Clinton called Mr Trump to congratulate him on his victory, but did not make an appearance at her campaign event in New York City.

  • Mr Trump addressed supporters at his own campaign event in New York City, with an appeal to unity, saying it is “time for America to bind the wounds of division”.

  • Read our ongoing coverage of Donald Trumps victory as the world reacts here


Trump’s guests are gathering at the midtown Hilton to watch the results roll in, reports the FT’s Sam Fleming in Manhattan.

The hotel is surrounded by a massive police presence, and in its Grand Ballroom the stage where Mr Trump will speak later is already set with dozens of flags. Near the stage is the network of rooms where Mr Trump’s invited VIP guests will gather to watch in the results on flatscreen TVs universally tuned to Fox News.

https://twitter.com/Sam1Fleming/status/796104113054502912

Buffet offerings on metal platters will include roast turkey, roast beef, sliders, pepperdaw and goats cheese poppers, Thai chicken peanut sate nibbles, shrimp, Long Island clams, east coast oysters and chocolate-dipped berries.

The rooms, one dubbed the victory suite, boast autumnal bouquets of roses. There are ubiquitous piles of Trump hats and posters bearing slogans such as The Silent Majority Stands with Trump.


The FT’s Neil Munshi with the latest results update:

The first results in the nation are in from Laurel County, Kentucky – with 2.2 per cent reporting in that reliably red state, Trump leads with 81 per cent of the vote. Mitt Romney won the same proportion in 2012.

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/796127397368184836



As voters cast their final votes, our colleagues at FT Alphaville give the historical perspective on the low popularity of the candidates


The Mexican peso is moving higher with just hours to go before polls across the US close.

Mexico’s currency climbed as high as MXN18.26 against the US dollar — the highest level since early September — from MXN18.594 at the end of the trading day on Monday.

It was the latest sign that investors have ratcheted up their expectations that Hillary Clinton will clinch a victory in the US presidential election, reports Adam Samson in New York.

The currency, which has tended to move in the opposite direction of Donald Trump’s chances of winning the election, has gotten a boost in recent days after the FBI confirmed that it would not recommend charges over Mrs Clinton’s use of a personal email server. It has also benefitted from early voting information that has trickled in thus far.

Investors may know within hours who the next president will be, as media networks begin providing exit poll results for important battleground states.


John Authers gives the markets overview here, illustrating investors’ bet on a Hillary Clinton victory

https://twitter.com/johnauthers/status/796135544816287744


First violence being reported at a polling station

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/796133632079499264


In midtown Manhattan, the line stretches into the distance to enter the Hillary Clinton campaign party at the Javits Center – with its high glass ceiling

https://twitter.com/courtney_ft/status/796128540232130560


While in Moscow, the hot ticket is for the party supporting the Trump campaign

https://twitter.com/Reevellp/status/796128528140005376


With polls now closing in Florida, Georgia, South Carolina and Vermont, here’s a reminder of which states get the most electoral college votes:


The first state results have been called, with Indiana and Kentucky going to Trump, as expected, and Clinton picking up her first state of Vermont

https://twitter.com/CNNPolitics/status/796140327094599680


A victory for the Democratic Party in Durham County, North Carolina, where voting hours have been extended after a nonprofit group sued the board of elections and asked for an extension in poll hours on the ground of technical issues that forced election officials to switch to paper roll books from the electronic voter check-in system.

https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/796141646865960960


According to a Fox News exit poll, first-time voters are turning out for Hillary.

https://twitter.com/FoxNews/status/796143352601341952


Update on the California shootings from the FT’s Leslie Hook:

A shooting this afternoon near Los Angeles has killed one person, injured three and caused several polling stations to be shut down.

Deputy Caroline Rodriguez of the Los Angeles County Sherriff’s department told the Financial Times shortly after 4pm that the suspect was still at large, and that police had set up a containment area.

The incident began just after 2pm Pacific with reports of shooting in Azusa, a suburb north of Los Angles. When police responded they came under gunfire, and responded with gunfire, according to an account posted on the Twitter feed of the Azusa police department.

The police will give a full briefing at 4.30pm Pacific time.


A reminder that things are far from over in western states: left-leaning Latino group just sent out this in Colorado to encourage last minute voters, from the inbox of the FT’s Barney Jopson in Washington.


Via Google search trends: “Pray for Trump” is 180% higher than “Pray for Hillary”

https://twitter.com/GoogleTrends/status/796145498809860096


Speaking at Mr Trump’s party in midtown Manhattan, James Davis, a pastor at the New Spirit Revival Center in Akron Ohio, and a member of Mr Trump’s diversity coalition, said he was feeling confident about the evening.

In part this was because of enthusiasm he witnessed from first-time voters and also because of the long lines that he has seen at Mr Trump’s rallies.

He said it was “surreal to say the least” to see how far Mr Trump had come, the FT’s Sam Fleming reports from the Trump party in Manhattan.

https://twitter.com/Sam1Fleming/status/796103913778905088

“He has gone against some very powerful people in a political machine and establishment that’s very hard to shake. He beat a Bush.”

Josh Peters, an academic from Regent University in Virginia Beach who calls himself a donor and enthusiast about Mr Trump, said “I think it’s going to be close but I have an intuition that we may have a Brexit-style surprise here with Donald trump…Donald Trump has stirred up a lot of enthusiasm among non-traditional voters in America in a way that past politicians haven’t.”

“The American people are revolting against the political system and establishment, they recognize the corruption that is involved with the political system,” he added.


In Ohio, Patti Waldmeir, is taking the temperature in the heart of Trump country

https://twitter.com/WaldmeirPatti/status/796147544434835460


Fresh results:

Donald Trump has won West Virginia, and its five electoral college votes:

https://twitter.com/FT/status/796148575151525889


FTAlphaville’s Matt Klein has been looking at the swaps market for clues on the election result: the index swaps are for a Clinton victory:


Foreign exchange markets in Asia are already showing signs of nerves as the first results in the US presidential election start to trickle in.

The Mexican peso – the market’s popular proxy of the race for the White House – and the Japanese yen have been among the biggest movers as voting in some of the candidates’ stronghold states has turned out as expected, and leaning – at this stage – in favour of Donald Trump.

The peso is 0.4 per cent weaker, having recovered from a brief drop of as much as 0.7 per cent, reports Peter Wells in Hong Kong.

The Canadian dollar, whose fortunes are also closely tied to the outcome of the US presidential race, was 0.1 per cent weaker, with one US dollar buying C$1.3298.

Meanwhile, the yen, which is playing the role of haven today, is 0.4 per cent stronger at ¥‎104.76 per dollar. Only a short while ago it had been as much as 0.6 per cent stronger.


The FT’s Robert Shrimsley reports from the Clinton campaign party at the Javits Center that the crowd is getting edgy along with the markets.

This Girl is on Fire played loud as the Florida votes stacked up. The narrow lead there was holding up. A staffer led “I believe in Hillary” chants.

But as the Ohio and North Carolina exit polls came in, as Trump took the lead in Florida and Republican senator Rob Portman was projected to win in Ohio, the Javits Centre hall went rather quiet.

They were all ready to party – now you can feel the edginess in the hall.


Trump country is getting more confident

https://twitter.com/WaldmeirPatti/status/796151269673070594


Latest results: Trump wins Indiana, Kentucky, and West Virginia.

Clinton wins Vermont.

Ohio, Florida and Virginia too close to call.


Latest results:

Clinton wins Massachusetts, New Jersey, DC, Delaware, Maryland. That makes six states called for Hillary.

Trump picks up Oklahoma, making for four states bagged.

Ohio, Florida and Virginia still too close to call.

Erstwhile Republican candidate Marco Rubio through to the Senate for Florida.

https://twitter.com/Dimi/status/796158675387826176


US managing editor Gillian Tett has been to both candidates’ events in Manhattan and reports back about the contrasts between them:

The Clinton and Trump victory parties at the Javits center and the Hilton Hotel are a truly fascinating study in contrasts. The Clinton event felt hyper-controlled and organized and has clearly been planned for months and months; all the streets in the area are cordoned off, the crowds are being steered into holding pens, and there is a master plan to organise supporters. Utterly professional – but somewhat detached.

The Trump event at the Hilton Hotel, by contrast, felt distinctly improvised – it had clearly been thrown together so recently that there were regular tourists staying at the hotel. Supporters were queuing at the entrance in a jubilant way and security was surprisingly light.

https://twitter.com/gilliantett/status/796155083910238208


Latest results: Add South Carolina and Tennessee to the list for Trump


Markets are see-sawing as Florida hangs in the balance, Leo Lewis in Tokyo reports for FastFT that the yen is now back at ¥105.40/$ after a staccato rally earlier in the session took it well into the ¥104/$ range.

https://twitter.com/fastFT/status/796159006230376449


As our readers respond to this tight race, we have been collecting top comments from around FT.com in our comments hub. Here are a few:

“If I owned any shares in polling companies I would be selling them this morning. Their credibility is in ruins after so many massive failures.” — Etranger

“Whichever of these two awful candidates wins, surely Gibbon had it right: no great nation is destroyed from without until it has first destroyed itself from within.” — Oriental Observer

“On a positive note — perhaps both candidates have brought out a lot of new voters, as Obama did, and perhaps that will be good for US society in the medium-term.” — Dick Miller

“I’ve got that Brexit vote feeling all over again…” — User_7955


This from the former Florida director for Obama’s 2008 and 2012 campaigns:

https://twitter.com/steveschale/status/796157733011652613


Another former presidential candidate, Ohio Governor John Kasich applauded White House rival contender Marco Rubio’s win in Florida for the US Senate: “Senator you earned this win. Congrats!” Kasich tweeted.

With an eye on makign another run at the White House in 2020, the FT’s David Lynch in Washington DC reports that the 45-year-old Senator Rubio is unlikely to serve out his second six-year term.

https://twitter.com/JohnKasich/status/796158228480532480


Latest results:

Alabama goes to Trump = 7 states won for 60 electoral college votes

Clinton = 7 states won for 48 electoral college votes

https://twitter.com/FT/status/796163767142940673


Major markets may be closed but the Asian and regional markets are providng a volatiel indicator: FastFT reports that Australia’s US-exposed stocks are looking pretty mixed as it ticks into the Sydney lunchbreak, but those that are looking weaker aren’t doing it by halves.


Latest results:

Trump adds North and South Dakota and Wyoming, Texas and Kansas = 123 electoral college votes

Clinton adds Illinois and New York = 97 electoral college votes


As more results come in Trump shows big gains in rural areas, trimming Clinton’s perceived lead:

https://twitter.com/oliverdarcy/status/796171469873094658


The FT’s Robert Shrimsley reports from the Clinton campaign party at the Javits Center that the biggest cheer of the night so far came as New York was called for Hillary Clinton. It wasn’t a surprise but the crowd had spent the last hour
biting their nails and waiting for the good news that seems a bit too
slow in coming.

https://twitter.com/AP/status/796171063159885824


While jitters have hit financial markets, the excitement has been building up at the Trump party in midtown Manhattan, the FT’s Sam Fleming reports.

Cheers have erupted at the Florida count as reports show Mr Trump as ahead even if the state remains too close to call. The predictable news that New York will go to Mrs Clinton was greeted with boos.


Trump gathers pace and the Mexican peso goes through the floor:


Markets are taking the news increasingly badly.

Gold price up almost 2.5 per cent, above $1300.

Flight to safety has sent US Treasury yields into sharp reverse.

US dollar is dropping.


Long lines have kept the polls open late in Pennsylvania, with some spots just now closing, according to the WNYC.

https://twitter.com/toddzwillich/status/796176950909956097

Pennsylvania, with 20 electoral college votes, is viewed as critical to a Clinton win.



The yen is 2.7 per cent stronger at ¥102.29 per dollar, but was threatening to break the ¥102 barrier, getting as high as ¥102.04.

That has the yen eyeing its biggest one-day gain since July 29 and the fourth-largest so far this year.

Japanese government bonds, also a popular haven, are also strengthening. Yields, which move inversely to price, are down 0.3 basis points at minus 0.064 per cent.


As markets roil, an update from the Trump camp:

https://twitter.com/EricTrump/status/796178103844425729


FT Alphaville summary of the market shakiness can be read here: Trump stress trades appear to be on for now.

FT markets watcher extraordinaire John Authers also confirms the Peso is now at the worst level since the Tequila Crisis – the currency devaluation in 1994 (so-called even though the price of tequila was not affected)

https://twitter.com/FT/status/796182529850097666


Early results show Trump making big gains in rural Ohio, taking the lead in a county that Obama won handily in 2012:

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/796180826006388740

https://twitter.com/kkondik/status/796181912368848896

Pre-election polls had given Trump the edge in the key state, which Barack Obama won in 2012 but which also has large populations of white working class voters. Ohio holds 18 electoral college votes.


FT’s Leo Lewis reports from Tokyo on the rollercoaster ride of the yen after a sudden strengthening which saw the currency back in its role as a safe haven in times of trouble.

The swing has revived questions over whether Japan could intervene in these markets. The Chief Cabinet Secretary, Yoshihide Suga, has just told Japanese media that the government is “watching whether FX moves are excessive” as the dollar continues its plunge against the yen.

Having started today’s trading in Tokyo at around Y105/$, the greenback has nosedived to Y102.30/$ as markets realize that the polls may have given them a false sense of security.

Mr Suga is also reported as saying that Japan will “respond to any excessive moves [in the currency] if necessary”.

Local equity markets have lost their nerve too, with Tokyo selling off stocks across the board as the chance of a Trump victory appears to rise.

“So this is where it begins. The results are not reflecting what the polls had been saying so the market is pricing in the risk that the world’s biggest economy will now be run by a man who has never held public office,” said one Tokyo equity broker, commenting on the huge drop in the dollar that has now completely reversed the earlier gains in the Topix and sent it into the lunch break down 2.3 per cent on the day.


FastFT colleague Mamta Badkar reports on the paring back of investor expectations for a December rate rise on election uncertainty.

Thanks to election jitters the odds of a December rate rise fell from 85 per cent to 63 per cent, based on US overnight indexed swaps, according to Bloomberg data.


The FT’s Sam Fleming reports from the Trump campaign party at the Hilton Hotel in midtown Manhattan that the atmosphere is “simmering with excitement”

Hundreds of Trump guests have now gathered in the Hilton’s main ballroom… as they knock back Blue Moon beers, glasses of wine, Diet Cokes and watch the huge screens on either side of the stage.

“It’s so damn close and I just want it to be a blowout,” said one guest to another just now. Cheers have been going up regularly over the evolving count in Ohio.


Peso has fallen below 20 against the dollar for the first time ever

FastFT reports that the peso weakened to as much as 20.2967 to the dollar in Asia trade on Wednesday as state polls in the US showed a rising count in favour of Donald Trump. The currency was hovering just below that point at pixel time.


The FT’s Jude Webber reports that at the Pinche Gringos bar in Mexico City the Democrats Abroad are trying valiantly to party, with the release of balloons and cheers when a state comes in for Clinton.

But Rodrigo Hernández, a political consultant, is worried. “It’s terrifying. Florida is pretty much going to Trump. It’s the most ridiculous thing. I cannot believe the Latino vote is going to Trump in Florida. It’s crazy”

He believed Trump could win if he carries Florida, North Carolina and Ohio.

“If he wins there, then it’s a toss-up. And that’s scary,” he said.


Global financial markets have been shaken by the growing spectre that Donald Trump may win the US election as investors eye the latest polling, FastFT’s Adam Samson reports. A round-up of the key measures at 1030pm ET.

The peso – The Mexican peso is now down by almost 10 per cent against the US dollar, crossing the MXN20 threshold for the first time since at least 1971, according to Bloomberg data.

US stock futures – S&P 500 futures is down 4 per cent, suggesting investors are expecting a rocky day on Wednesday for the benchmark Wall Street equity gauge.

The yen, gold and Treasuries – Safe havens are rallying amid the rising uncertainty. The yen jumped by 3 per cent against the US dollar, gold climbed 2.9 per cent and the yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note, which moves in the opposite direction of the price, fell 11.2 basis points to 1.745 per cent.

The dollar – The dollar index, a measure of the greenback against six global currencies, fell 1.1 per cent.

Volatility – Futures on the Vix index, a closely-monitored gauge of US stock volatility expectations, soared 25 per cent.


The mood at the Clinton event has become sombre over the past hour, reports the FT’s Courtney Weaver. New York Governor Andrew Cuomo tried his best to pump up the crowd. “How is exciting is this! How exciting a night!”

But it is not the way the Clinton campaign or their supporters thought the night would unfold. Many in the crowd have blamed James Comey’s decision to re-open the FBI probe into Mrs Clintons’ use of a private email server for her worse than expected performance so far tonight.

“We know who he’s voting for”, Mark McMahon, an illustrator and Clinton supporter, scoffed of Mr Comey.

But there is a clear disconnect between the New York Clinton supporters – who make up most of the crowd here and who helped her secure an estimated 80 per cent of the vote in New York – and states such as Florida and Ohio which are looking much worse for her than many predicted.

Over at the rival Trump event at the Hilton Hotel, one pair of supporters were looking disbelievingly at their iPhones around 1040pm as Dow futures dropped hundreds of points, the FT’s Sam Fleming reports.

The ongoing count in Michigan on the screen quickly diverted their attention. Then a huge cheer erupted, with one supporter blowing his whistle euphorically, as news of the North Carolina projection came out.

A chant of “drain the swamp” immediately started up in a reference to Mr Trump’s declared plans for Washington. The mood became fully euphoric.


Latest results: Breaking News: Donald Trump has won Ohio.

https://twitter.com/joannaskao/status/796196798847184897

Hillary Clinton claims Virginia and Colorado.

The FT’s Geoff Dyer notes that Virginia is a state Mrs Clinton had hoped would be comfortably in her camp but which turned out to be closer than expected. With 88 per cent of the votes counted, she had 48.3 per cent of the vote, with Donald Trump on 46.5 per cent. Virginia has 13 electoral college votes. Mr Trump did better than expected in the rural areas of the state, however in the end the Washington DC suburbs in the north pushed gave Mrs Clinton the victory.

The Colorado victory was also sorely-needed for Clinton. The FT’s Shawn Donnan reports that her win there repeats victories in 2008 and 2012 for President Barack Obama in the mountain state, which has increasingly become a Democratic outpost in the west.

It was a must-win for the former secretary of state on a night in which Mr Trump is carrying other important states and threatening other important Democratic strongholds such as Michigan and Wisconsin.


A huge cheer has erupted and chants of “USA, USA” as Florida is called. High fives among some supporters, reports the FT’s Sam Fleming from the Hilton Hotel.

https://twitter.com/FT/status/796199432698167296

In winning the biggest prize among early battleground states with its 29 electoral votes, the win in Florida is a huge one for the Republican, who has called it his “second home” and considered a victory there crucial to his national ambitions, reports the FT’s Shawn Donnan.

The New York businessman’s victory there came despite a surge in Latino votes that the Clinton campaign had hoped would deliver her a win.


The FT’s Sam Fleming reports that the mood is becoming increasingly jubilant among Trump’s guests. Huge cheers erupted among supporters at the Hilton ballroom as Ohio is called for Trump.

“Go to hell John Kasich,” shouts one in a reference to the state’s Republican governor, who refused to support the candidate.

The focus among some supporters is now swinging to Michigan, with one pointing to President Barack Obama’s visit to the stage on the eve of the election as a sign of Democratic Party concern about the state.

Worth a look back at this now.

https://twitter.com/Dimi/status/796197601376948229



Trump has now scooped three of the most contentious states: Florida, North Carolina and Ohio. Here’s where we stand:

https://twitter.com/FT/status/796204836765204482


The FT’s Jude Webber reports from Mexico City that the local newspaper Reforma says that Claudia Ruiz Massieu, the foreign minister, has left the “war room” inside the foreign ministry to head to an urgent meeting in the presidential palace. Insiders in the finance ministry also described the mood as one of “panic”.


Now investors are even further dialing back their expectations that the Federal Reserve will raise rates this year.

Thanks to election jitters the odds of a December rate rise have fallen below 50 per cent, based on US overnight indexed swaps, Mamta Badkar reports.

“We believe this reaction is fair as significant tightening in financial conditions could restrain the Fed from taking rates higher in December,” strategists at TD Securities noted.

Just hours before, when polls were still open, futures had pointed to an 84 per cent chance of a move. The Fed last raised rates in December 2015.


The FT’s Sam Fleming reports from the Hilton Hotel that the Trump crowd is “going wild” and shouting “USA USA” again with Fox calls of Wisconsin and Iowa. Two women supporters are screaming and jumping up and down as they celebrate.

…. and a loud chorus of boos as images of despondent Clinton supporters appears on the big screens by the ballroom stage – prompting chants of “drain the swamp” again


From our Latin American correspondent John Paul Rathbone:

Peso crumples and this forbidding meme, with Trump peering over a
wall, says; “now go to bed…tomorrow we begin throwing out the gate
crashers”.


The Mexican peso has suffered its worst drop in more than two decades.

https://twitter.com/RobinWigg/status/796212945604767747


Latest result: Donald Trump has won Utah, adding to his electoral college lead.

That widens his count to 244 against Clinton’s 209.


Watch how the results evening unfolded here in this FT election results map GIF.

https://twitter.com/FT/status/796217431643529216


Investor distress at the prospect of the Trump presidency widens: the S&P 500 futures have fallen 5%, triggering trading curbs, FastFT reports.

S&P 500 e-mini futures traded electronically on the CME Group’s exchange tumbled 5 per cent in early trading on Wednesday. That triggered a so-called “limit down”, a mechanism put in place to halt panicky selling, says Adam Samson.


In a counterpoint to the pain in financial markets, California has passed a piece of legislation on marijuana.

The FT’s Leslie Hook in Cailfornia reports that several key US states legalised marijuana through ballot measures

Cannabis is now legal in some form in more than half of all US states, even though the substance is still technically banned at the federal level.

California and Massachusetts both voted to legalise cannabis for recreational use. Early results in Maine and Nevada suggested that those states were poised to legalise the drug as well.

Four additional states also approved the use of marijuana for medical purposes – Florida, Arkansas, North Dakota and Montana – bringing the total number of states that support medical marijuana to 24.

Voter’s attitude toward cannabis has changed in recent years, with many questioning the cost of the war on drugs and the way it has disproportionately affected people of colour. A Gallup poll last month found that 60 per cent of Americans polled thought cannabis should be legalised, the strongest level of support in decades.

https://twitter.com/MattGarrahan/status/796222656718716932


Exit plans?

The Government of Canada’s immigration website has crashed as the US election results roll in, revealing much greater than forecast gains for Donald Trump.

Canada’s main immigration site — www.cic.gc.ca — has been down intermittently for the past few hours.

Prime minister Justin Trudeau has joked before about welcoming Americans to Canada in the event of a Trump presidency, saying in February that Canada is “always welcoming and opening”. About one million Americans are estimated to be living in Canada now.


The balance tips the other way slightly with a Clinton win in Nevada.

Bring the electoral college count to 215 for Clinton versus 244 for Trump.

https://twitter.com/FT/status/796222465747939328


Latest results: The Republicans have retained control of the House of Representatives, extending their control of the chamber to six years, according to the Associated Press.

The FT’s Geoff Dyer notes that going into the election with a majority of 59 seats, the Republicans had been expected to remain the largest party.

However the Democrats made even fewer gains than they had hoped.



In Tokyo, despite the dollar-yen volatility, Robin Harding reports that the public and official outward reaction is subdued.

Nonetheless, Japan’s finance ministry is to hold an emergency meeting between the Masatsugu Asakawa, the vice minister for international affairs, Masayoshi Amamiya, executive director of the Bank of Japan and Nobuchika Mori, Financial Services Commissioner at 3pm local time.

https://twitter.com/RobinBHarding/status/796220381677817857

https://twitter.com/RobinBHarding/status/796227161254293504


In Germany, as European leaders struggle with the possibility of a Trump victory, the first German minister to give a view is defence minister Ursula von der Leyen, who appeared on morning television.

The FT’s Stefan Wagstyl reports that Ms von der Leyen appealed to Mr Trump to avoid isolationism.

“It’s in Europe’s interest that the US remains open to the world,” she said. The said there were many “open questions” about the Republican candidate’s intentions, including his attitude to Nato and to Russian president Vladimir Putin.

Ms von der Leyen said he would be right to ask European states about their military contribution to Nato, which is already growing. But European leaders would be asking him what his relationship to the alliance would be. The outcome, so far, she said, was “a big shock.”


In commodities markets, the FT’s David Sheppard reports, industry players were grappling with the overnight gyrations in response to the US election uncertainty.

Wayne Gordon, commodity, currency and rates strategist at UBS WM, in Singapore said: “If Trump ends up the winner or its uncertain at the end of today then ‘risk-off’ trading could persist for a number of days.

“For clients concerned about risk we’ve been recommending they buy gold, as it performed well in the immediate aftermath of Brexit.”

“But this is really a risk-off move rather than a broader change in the underlying fundamentals of these commodities. Both candidates are pro US growth.”

“When the dust settles here we’re still likely to have a deficit of oil from the second half of next year; and the drop in oil prices – and broader economic uncertainty – may actually force greater coordination in Opec ahead of their meeting later this month. This may make it more likely that they formulate a deal.”

Mr Gordon cautioned, however, that if markets remain volatile the US dollar could start to benefit if investors flee from riskier assets, which could put additional pressure on commodities that are priced in the US currency.


In South Korea, authorities have also announced a host of emergency meetings this afternoon to discuss response measures to the US elections.

Ruling party lawmakers and key ministers, including the foreign affairs and defence minsters, are due to meet at 3pm local time to discuss possible scenarios emanating from a potential win for Donald Trump, reports the FT’s Bryan Harris.

At 5pm, the Financial Service Commission will host an array of institutions, including Korea Exchange and the Financial Supervisory Service regulator, to discuss “emergency response measures,” a spokesman told the Financial Times.

The Financial Supervisory Service had earlier asked institutions to prepare themselves for external shocks and to monitor foreign exchange liquidity.


As Trump nears a historic upset, Nate Silver, the widely cited political analyst and statistician, takes a look at the biggest polling misses.

https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/796228402554503168


A historic result is hanging on the outcome in a handful of swing states: Michigan, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And Alaska.

https://twitter.com/FT/status/796235889995288576


There may still be a slim path to victory but Clinton supporters were finding it hard to find their voices at the Javitz Center by 130am ET, reports Courtney Weaver

https://twitter.com/courtney_ft/status/796232532509556736


Marine Le Pen, leader of France’s far-right National Front party, has offered her congratulations to Donald Trump, the “new president of the United States”

https://twitter.com/MLP_officiel/status/796235915387699200


Pennsylvania scooped by Trump.

This delivers 244 electoral college votes for Trump vs 215 for Clinton.

https://twitter.com/AP/status/796240279216988162


Patti Waldmeir has been recording the voices of the Trump voters

https://twitter.com/WaldmeirPatti/status/796231177682100224


Speaking to the supporters from the Trump heartland.

https://twitter.com/WaldmeirPatti/status/796229516905562113


Europe’s right wing leaders now all reacting to the US election results.

Dutch populist Geert Wilders, leader of the Party for Freedom, says “the Americans are getting their country back.”

In Poland, the foreign minister has described Trump as a “leader for a new
era”, adding that Warsaw would respect any choice of Americans, the FT’s Henry Foy reports.

” I’ll say this, as we responded in June, when we knew the results of
the British referendum: We will respect any choice of the American
people,” Witold Waszczykowski said on Wednesday morning.

“Donald Trump’s electorate turned out to be larger. It was hidden,
many people did not admit to it. He sidestepped the mechanism of
political correctness.

“His rhetoric very much violated political correctness, and a lot of people who probably liked this attitude, who were looking for simple answers in this global world… decided that he was the leader for a new era “


The Clinton camp is regrouping after the Pennsylvania news.

https://twitter.com/danmericaCNN/status/796242182302814209


Kellyanne Conway, Trump’s campaign manager, says “we expanded the map”.

https://twitter.com/KellyannePolls/status/796237905089929217


Here’s the full text from John Podesta, Clinton’s campaign manager, in what does not seem to be a concession speech:

https://twitter.com/ReenaJF/status/796249141550710784


https://twitter.com/FT/status/796253540591300608

Do you have questions about what is happening in markets?

Join our expert John Authers now – answering readers live on Facebook.

https://twitter.com/FT/status/796251732187709440

https://twitter.com/EmikoTerazono/status/796254082268798976


“The forgotten men and women of our country, will be forgotten no longer,” Trump says in victory speech.

https://twitter.com/FTWashington/status/796258962962255872


Trump leaves the stage to “You Can’t Always Get What You Want” by the Rolling Stones.


The FT has called Donald Trump’s historic victory a “thunderous repudiation of the status quo”.

In a leader column under the headline “Donald Trump’s win heralds crisis of western democracy”:

The most powerful nation on earth has elected a real estate developer with no experience in government, a self-styled strongman contemptuous of allies, civil discourse and democratic convention. Barring a protean change of personality, Mr Trump’s victory appears to represent a challenge to the western democratic model.

Read more here.


What happened? Study this.


It’s been a long, late night in the US, but major newspapers across the country are starting to publish their front page covers for Wednesday morning. Here’s a look at five of them:






A retreat from risk remains the defining theme as European markets open. The continent’s benchmark index, the Euro Stoxx 600, is down 2.2 per cent with banks leading the way.

Spain’s BBVA has weakened 8.5 per cent and Natixis of France is off 5.8 per cent. Unloved by investors all year, European banks have become an automatic sell during moments of wider stress.

And the stress right now is that Donald Trump is an unknown quantity in the White House.

Neil Williams, group chief economist at Hermes, says markets will be on the back foot “given the potential for a paradigm shift that disrupts financial assets, macro-economics, and trade policy.”


Donald Trump defied the odds with his victory this morning. Nearly all major national opinion polls predicted Hillary Clinton would win both the popular and the Electoral College vote.

The FT’s Claire Manibog has looked at the numbers and put together this helpful graph on how the election results differed from what the polls were predicting in key swing states.


Donald Trump’s victory will immediately concentrate attention on his relationship with fellow Republican Paul Ryan, the Speaker of the House of Representatives, who refused to campaign or defend Mr Trump throughout much of the race. Here’s what Mr Ryan had to say once it was clear Mr Trump had won the election:


Russian president Vladimir Putin sent Mr Trump a telegram congratulating him on his victory and wishing him “success in the vital responsibilities of head of state”, the FT’s Max Seddon reports from Moscow.

Mr Putin told Mr Trump he hoped they could work together to improve US-Russia relations, currently at their lowest ebb since the Cold War, as well as “solve international issues and search for effective answers to global security challenges,” the Kremlin said.

Mr Putin added that “building a constructive dialogue between Moscow and Washington based on principles of equality, mutual respect, and a real accounting of each other’s positions is in the interest of the peoples of our countries and the whole global community.”


As Europe wakes up to the news of President-Elect Donald Trump, EU politicians are reacting to the election result.

Anne-Sylvaine Chassany, the FT’s Paris bureau chief, reports that French foreign minister Jean-Marc Ayrault said the US election posed “essential questions” on diplomacy: “For instance, what’s going to happen to the Paris accord on climate that Donald Trump wants to question, what’s going to happen to the Iranian nuclear deal, that Donald Trump wants to challenge? Those are essential questions that we are already asking ourselves.”

James Politi, the FT’s Rome bureau chief, reports that Mr Ayrault’s counterpart in Italy, Paolo Gentiloni, said Mr Trump’s victory was a “very important fact which will change many things in the world”.

Tobias Buck, the FT’s Madrid bureau chief, says Mariano Rajoy, Spain’s prime minister, sent a congratulatory tweet that described the US as an “indispensable ally” to Madrid.

“We will continue our work to strengthen the relationship with the US,” he said.

Pablo Iglesias, the leader of the anti-establishment Podemos party, had a less diplomatic message, tweeting an iconic picture of two African-American athletes giving the “black power salute” at the 1968 Olympics.

“The vaccine against Trump’s fascism is social justice and human rights, not more establishment. There is a people in the the US that will resist,” he said.



Some advice to Mr Trump from one of the world’s better known investors.

Mohamed El-Erian, the former chief executive of Pimco, says the property mogul has a short window to build a consensus around investing in the country’s infrastructure and reforming the country’s corporate tax code.

But he must move quickly and avoid major mishaps like slapping tariffs on China and Mexico. Expect a lot more advice from Wall Street in coming days.


Nato’s chief Jens Stoltenberg has “welcomed” the election of Mr Trump, saying he is looking forward to working with the new president.

At a press conference in Brussels this morning, the Norwegian said he will welcome Mr Trump to the capital at Nato’s 2017 summit.

“US leadership is as important as ever and a strong Nato is good for the United States”, he said.

Mr Trump said during his presidential campaign that if Russia attacked a Nato member, he would consider whether the targeted country had met its defence commitments before providing military aid, appearing to contradict a key tenet of Nato cooperation.


Donald, meet Donald.

European Council President Donald Tusk has sent a letter of congratulations to Donald Trump, inviting the US President-Elect to visit Europe for an EU-US Summit.

“The conversation would allow for us to chart the course of our relations for the next four years,” Mr Tusk wrote, in a letter co-signed by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.

Twitter users can read the full text of the letter below.

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/status/796277380746805249


John Authers, the FT’s markets commentator, has offered his initial verdict on what Mr Trump’s triumph means.

What is undeniable is a deep pessimism and anger within the electorate. A famous work of stock market history is called Triumph of the Optimists; it argues that the second half of the 20th century, with the rebirth of Germany and Japan, the peaceful end of the cold war, and widening free trade, was a triumph for those who looked to the future optimistically at mid-century.

Markets peaked at the end of 1999. The advances from 1950 to 2000 then taken for granted are now in doubt. As certainties disappear, this election marks the triumph of the market pessimists.

The whole piece is here.


How did Mr Trump do it? The key to the upset was his campaign’s ability to flip voters in typically democratic-leaning havens. Here’s an example of one county in Michigan, just north of Detroit, which voted for President Obama in 2012, but overwhelmingly turned to Mr Trump:

2016:

2012:

With the margin of victory for Mr Trump currently sitting within 100,000 votes in states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, these counties that flipped made all the difference.

*courtesy of Macomb County data


This in from Elaine Moore, capital markets reporter at the FT.

Yes, markets are in clear risk-off mode, but there’s not panic. Several analysts and economists are already predicting that markets will prove relatively robust, pointing to a resilient US economy and the danger of exaggerating risks when the long-term outcome of Mr Trump’s presidency is still unknown.

“Broadly speaking, markets are taking a risk-off approach to the Trump victory, with equities and credit selling off, due to uncertainty,” said David Zahn, head of European fixed income at Franklin Templeton, a major asset manager. But he added, “it is important to remember that while this represents significant change for the world, it will take time for policies to come to fruition… It is also important to bear in mind, that while all of this has been going on, we have seen some uptick in underlying macro-fundamentals.”

That’s echoed by Will Hobbs, head of investment strategy in Europe at Barclays Wealth and Investment Management, who claims that ” when this dust will settle, but when it eventually does, we expect markets to remember that there are good reasons for believing that little of President Trump’s campaign trail rhetoric will make it to actionable policy.”

As it to prove the point, the drop in S&P 500 futures has almost halved as the chart below shows.


Theresa May, the UK prime minister, has congratulated Donald Trump and said the US and UK will remain “strong and close partners on trade, security and defence”.

This from the FT’s team in Westminster:

Prime Minister Theresa May said:

“I would like to congratulate Donald Trump on being elected the next President of the United States, following a hard-fought campaign.

“Britain and the United States have an enduring and special relationship based on the values of freedom, democracy and enterprise.

“We are, and will remain, strong and close partners on trade, security and defence.

“I look forward to working with President-elect Donald Trump, building on these ties to ensure the security and prosperity of our nations in the years ahead.”

Earlier this morning, Matthew Barzun, US ambassador to the UK, said the “special relationship” between the two countries is “unbreakable and unshakable”.


Can we expect a performance from the Rolling Stones at the inauguration?

If Mick Jagger’s tweet this morning is anything to go by, probably not.

https://twitter.com/MickJagger/status/796282071580864512

Donald Trump has used the song “You Can’t Always Get What You Want” at campaign events in recent months, and the song closed out his victory rally this morning.

The FT’s Shawn Donnan reported yesterday that workers are already assembling the stands for the inauguration parade, which is more than two months away.

For those of you marking your calendars, Trump will be sworn in on January 20.

https://twitter.com/AP_Planner/status/796254553574408192


Just like we saw during the Brexit vote, the betting markets were caught off guard by the prospects of a Trump campaign upset. One Irish bookmaker, Paddy Power, went so far as to say on October 18 that it would pay over £800,000 early to customers who backed a Hillary Clinton victory. Whoops.

Here’s what they had to say today after the historic upset:

The result also stung Paddy Power for its biggest political payout ever with the bookie been hit for over £4 million by customers who backed Trump After Donald Trump was hit with scandal after scandal the bookie was confident of Hillary’s chances – prompting the whopping payout. But Clinton’s campaign took a late hit thanks to the reopened FBI investigation which resulted in a huge surge in bets for The Donald.

Lewis Davey, a spokesperson for Paddy Power, said “We’re in the business of making predictions and decided to put our neck on the line by paying out early on Hillary Clinton, but boy did we get it wrong. We’ve been well and truly thumped by Trump with his victory leaving us with the biggest political payout in the company’s history and some very, very expensive egg on our faces.”


The FT’s chief foreign affairs columnist, Gideon Rachman, and chief editorial writer, Robert Armstrong, are discussing the fall-out from the election on Facebook Live.

Tune in on the FT’s Facebook page here.


CNN and other media outlets are reporting that President Obama has called to congratulate Mr Trump on his victory and that two are scheduled to meet on Thursday.


And there’s congratulations to the US president-elect from the Philippines.

President Rodrigo Duterte of the Philippines, who has repeatedly hit out at Manila’s longtime ally Washington and has told President Barack Obama to “go to hell”, offered Mr Trump “warm congratulations,” reports Michael Peel in Bangkok.

Mr Duterte “looks forward to working with the incoming administration for enhanced Philippines-U.S. relations anchored on mutual respect, mutual benefit and shared commitment to democratic ideals and the rule of law,” said Martin Andanar, presidential communications secretary.


Today, November 9, is the 27th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall.

The FT’s Clive Cookson is at the “Falling Walls” conference today in Germany that looks at how to bring down barriers in society. He sent this report:

Today’s event was shocked to open with news that “a man who campaigned on building a new wall” had been elected US president, as Falling Walls founder Sebastian Turner put it.

One of Germany’s top foreign policy experts Wolfgang Ischinger, chair of the Munich Security conference and former ambassador to the US, told the meeting: “What I expect to happen in this country [Germany] is an enormous amount of hand-wringing and speculation about what President Trump might do with us and to us.”

He added that Germany and Europe should urgently work out a message to send Mr Trump about they want from him – “a view of the transatlantic relationship to put to his transition team.”

“One healthy effect of the Trump presidency might be to finally force us in Europe to be a little more mature. We have grown too accustomed to living under the wonderful protective umbrella offered to us by the US for more than 50 years,” he added.


The joint leaders of Northern Ireland congratulated Donald Trump on his victory and said they looked forward to working with him, the FT’s Vincent Boland reports.

Arlene Foster and Martin McGuinness said Northern Ireland had close economic, political and economic ties with the US and these would continue.

The US played a key role in securing the Good Friday Agreement that ended Northern Ireland’s 30 years of political violence in 1998, when Bill Clinton was president. The Clintons retain huge respect across Ireland, and Hillary Clinton was thought more likely to keep a continuing US interest in Ireland than Mr Trump.

Mr McGuinness, a senior figure in Sinn Fein, also commiserated with Mrs Clinton. She had shown “unwavering commitment to the north of Ireland as secretary of state and First Lady.”


More analysis on what happened in the betting markets and why they were so wrong from the FT’s Paul McClean and Murad Ahmed:

The betting patterns for the US election were almost identical to those of the Brexit vote, according to some of the UK’s leading bookmakers.

Around ⅔ of the total money staked during the Brexit vote was for ‘remain’, while ⅔ of the total bets placed were for ‘leave’, which analysts said skewed the betting markets in favour of the former. William Hill has said that ⅔ of the total money it received in this election were for Ms Clinton, but ⅔ of the individual bets were placed on Mr Trump.

Graham Sharpe, a William Hill spokesman said the nature of bets through the night also matched the response to the Brexit vote: “ The odds on the day for the two candidates were almost identical to the Remain/Leave odds on EU Ref day. Brexit became favourite for the first time just before 2am on EU Ref night, Trump at just after 2am on polling night.”

Ladbrokes says the contrast between total money staked and number of individual bets was even starker: “75% of individual wagers on the race to the White House were for Trump, while 80% of the money had been for Clinton”, said Jessica Bridge of Ladbrokes. She added that over 50,000 bets were placed in total during the election.

William Hill said last week it would be £330,000 worse off in the event of a Trump win, while Paddy Power paid out £800k to backers of Ms Clinton when it prematurely declared her the winner last month.

Among the punters to bet heavily on a Trump victory was John Mappin from Cornwall, who won £100,000 after staking 30 bets with William Hill on the Republican’s victory over the past 18 months.


For the number-crunchers out there, the FT team in New York have created this helpful chart showing how the vote changed in each state between 1972 and 2016.

(We posted a similar chart earlier this morning, but this graphic has the latest numbers.)

Note that six states “flipped” between 2012 and 2016: Iowa, Ohio, Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.


One thing is becoming increasingly clearer this morning as the final results continue to come in from Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire: This election was extremely close.

The combined margin of victory in these states for Mr Trump is just over 100,000 votes and that is why he will be the next president of the United States.

While it may not end up being reflected in the electoral college tally, here is a look Mr Trump’s lead in the four states that proved pivotal to his victory:

Wisconsin (10 electoral votes):
Donald Trump: 1,404,376, 47.9%
Hillary Clinton: 1,377,588, 46.9%
Gary Johnson: 106,091, 3.6%
99% reporting

Michigan (16 electoral votes):
Donald Trump: 2,255,356, 47.6 per cent
Hillary Clinton: 2,239,745, 47.3%
Gary Johnson: 171,404, 3.6%
99% reporting

Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes):
Donald Trump: 2,911,986, 48.8%
Hillary Clinton: 2,844,084, 47.7%
Gary Johnson: 142,608, 2.4%
99% reporting

New Hampshire (4 electoral votes):
Donald Trump: 326,286, 47.5%
Hillary Clinton: 325,979, 47.4%
Gary Johnson: 28,659, 4.2%
93% reporting


Donald Trump has not tweeted yet today, but he has already updated his Twitter profile to read “President-elect of the United States”.


Thanks to all of our loyal readers for following this blog throughout the night and into the morning in Europe. As the US wakes up, we are going to move the live blog over to a new page. You can continue to follow the latest global reaction to Donald Trump’s historic victory here.