What next for Modi’s India?
The Indian government announced welcome reforms to attract foreign investors this week. But India-watchers were distracted by the resignation of the much-respected head of the country’s central bank, Raghuram Rajan. Gideon Rachman discusses the future of prime minister Narendra Modi’s reform programme with the FT’s South Asia bureau chief Amy Kazmin and former Mumbai correspondent James Crabtree.

 

With just a day to go before voting, the result of the British referendum on EU membership is anybody’s guess. The most recent FT poll-of-polls has Leave ahead by 45-44 – and there will be further polls released later today. Those hopeful Remainers who thought they had spotted a potentially decisive surge to their side late last week have been disappointed, as some recent polls have seen a swing back to Leave.

Both sides have an extra factor from which they take comfort. The Remain side point to the fact that the bookmakers still predict that Britain will vote to Remain inside the EU – Ladbrokes, my local turf accountants, are offering odds of 3-1 against Brexit. But the pro-Leave camp have a different source of encouragement. They are boosted by the extremely strong pro-Leave sentiment that many MPs are encountering on the doorsteps, as they campaign. One pro-Leave campaigner says that if that sentiment is genuinely reflected at the ballot box, he would not be surprised if his side wins by as much as 57-43. Read more

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Donald Trump must be looking forward to his trip to Scotland later this week, where most people will be more focussed on the outcome of the Brexit referendum than the terrible headlines that have plagued the tycoon in recent weeks. After firing his campaign manager Corey Lewandowski on Monday, it emerged later that evening that Hillary Clinton ended May with $41m more in the bank than Mr Trump whose campaign raised a paltry $3.1m in the month. Read more

At a gathering of Indian professionals at the Hong Kong Jockey Club at the weekend, the news that Raghuram Rajan would be returning to the US when his term as head of the Indian central bank expires in September gave rise to dark speculation — and bets — about how far the rupee would sink. The reaction in Mumbai was equally gloomy.

In the event, the rupee barely blinked when trading began on Monday. But the real damage is below the surface. By eschewing the easy short-term fixes in favour of more painful structural reform, Mr Rajan set himself on a collision course with the government of Narendra Modi. Read more

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He had survived a dust-up with a Breitbart News reporter, a scuffle with a Trump protester, and reports of infighting between him and nearly everyone else on the Trump campaign. But on Monday, Corey Lewandowski was finally dismissed from his post as Donald Trump’s campaign manager, not for any new controversies but rather because of an accumulation of old grievances. Read more

By Gideon Rachman

I just want the EU referendum to be over now. The horrific killing of Jo Cox, only a week before the vote, will overshadow the result, whatever it is.

Two weeks ago Paul Ryan announced he would be endorsing Donald Trumpas the Republican presidential nominee in an effort to beat Hillary Clinton.Does Ryan now regret that decision? Hard to say.

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When you’re coming off a primary with 20 presidential contenders, it’s sometimes hard to keep track of all the candidates. Luckily, here is a short primer courtesy of Jack Aiello, an Illinois eighth grader.

For his middle school graduation ceremony, Aiello decided to give his graduation speech in the styles of four past and present presidential candidates, plus Barack Obama. The (very) witty speech – which you can watch here – earned Aiello a shout-out from Ted CruzRead more

On Tuesday, the Democratic National Committee announced that its trove of opposition research on Donald Trump had been hacked by alleged Russian government hackers.

Today, Gawker has published a 200-page document which appears to be the DNC’s Trump playbook. Read more

France in crisis
Beset by strikes and deepening terrorism worries, France is struggling to cope as it hosts a major football championship, the Euro 2016 games. Gideon Rachman discusses the country’s security problems and political strife with World News editor Ben Hall and Anne-Sylvaine Chassany, the FT’s Paris bureau chief.

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Barack Obama cancelled his first joint campaign event with Hillary Clinton this week following the Orlando shooting. Yet he lost no time in taking shots at Clinton’s main opponent on Tuesday in the wake of the Florida attack and Donald Trump’s comments about a proposed ban on Muslims entering the country. Read more

Germany and France: Different world outlook

In an indication of the obstacles that may face a renewed push for closer European integration, a poll released on Tuesday pointed to significant differences in world outlook between the peoples of Germany and France, the nations that were once the motor of EU unity.

According to the Pew Research Center’s survey, entitled “Europeans Face the World Divided”, Germans are considerably more confident than the French about their place in the world and the desirability of international co-operation.

Some 62 per cent of Germans think their country plays a more important global role than it did 10 years ago, compared with only 23 per cent of French people. By contrast, 46 per cent of the French think their country plays a lesser role, compared with only 11 per cent of Germans. Read more

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One day after the worst mass shooting in modern US history, American officials both on and off the campaign trail are still struggling to find reason in the event’s aftermath.

On Monday, both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump gave speeches about Sunday’s attack at an Orlando gay club that left 49 people dead and more than 50 people injured – but with very different messages. Read more

By Gideon Rachman

Donald Trump’s reaction to the massacre at a gay nightclub in Orlando was revealing. “Appreciate the congrats for being right on radical Islamist terrorism”, tweeted the Republican party candidate for the US presidency.

Over the years, I’ve followed stories of English football hooliganism around the world with a certain grim fascination. Last night, unfortunately, I got to witness it first hand – at the England-Russia game at Euro 2016 in Marseilles.

During the day it is not hard to avoid the trouble. Just avoid city-centre bars full of singing, chanting drunkards. Nearer the ground things got nastier. Read more

As Elizabeth Warren, the progressive Democratic senator, dropped in for a chat with Hillary Clinton at the latter’s colonial brick residence on Whitehaven Street in Washington DC on Friday, it was easy to forget how rapidly the political mood has shifted in the capital this week.

Last weekend, Clinton was contemplating the possibility of an embarrassing defeat by Bernie Sanders in California, one of the Democrats’ stronghold states, and the socialist senator from Vermont was growling menacingly about a “contested convention” in Philadelphia this summer. Read more

Croatia: culturally and geographically, central European.

Even before the 1991-95 war of independence which liberated them from the old Yugoslavia, the people of Croatia bristled if outsiders labelled their country part of the Balkans.

These days they are no less insistent that Croatia is, culturally and geographically, central European. The broader implication behind this otherwise not unreasonable claim is that civilisation in Mitteleuropa is more advanced than in the benighted backwaters of the Balkans.

However, with the rise of “illiberal democracy” in nearby countries such as Hungary, Poland and to a lesser extent Slovakia, and after Austria almost elected a far-right politician as its president, one might ask if Croatia would be well-advised to play down its central European credentials. Or are there, in fact, signs that illiberal democracy is spreading into Croatia? Read more

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The party host has confirmed it was a great night, thanked everyone for coming, and wished you all a safe journey home. But one guest is still clinging to the drinks table and opening himself a new bottle of beer. That guy is Bernie Sanders.

On Thursday the Vermont senator took his refusal to officially admit that the good times were over to a poignant new venue: the White House. Read more

Apart from the likely economic damage, a British vote to leave the EU in the June 23 “Brexit” referendum would throw up troublesome political and constitutional questions. A period of profound uncertainty could be in store for Britain and, by extension, the EU as a whole.

Let us imagine that the Leave camp wins the referendum. David Cameron would surely resign as prime minister and give up the leadership of the Conservative party. Whoever his successor in both posts might be, it is obvious that he or she would have to honour the electorate’s verdict and start preparing legislation to extract Britain from the EU.

But what would be the substance of this legislation? The Leave camp is a mixed bag of anti-EU campaigners. It is not united behind a specific plan for redefining Britain’s post-Brexit relationship with the EU. Read more

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Last night, eight years after her failed 2008 presidential bid, Hillary Clinton declared herself this year’s Democratic presidential nominee and the first woman to claim her party’s nomination.

On Wednesday, she did something almost as momentous: she took the day off. Read more