Is it just me, or has the mood changed? I did a panel discussion on the American election at the Battle of Ideas festival here in London this morning and was surprised that the general consensus seemed to be that Obama is heading for defeat. This did not reflect the ideological bias of the panel: we had liberals and conservatives up there. Nor does it reflect the consensus opinion, as represented by the markets. Intrade still gives Obama a 60% chance of victory.
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