Tuesday archive: Market trade-offs

From 13th May, 2006:

My wife and I have become hooked on the national addiction: pressing our noses against the windows of estate agents, visiting unaffordably nice parts of London and flicking through real-estate porn.

Sadly, my experience as an undercover economist offers few tips on judging what the housing market will do. I would guess that it will fall over the next few years, but you should pay no more attention to that claim than if it was made by a taxi driver or a waitress.

I don’t have enough confidence in my forecast to sell my house, rent while prices collapse, and then buy somewhere bigger for bargain prices. Nor should I. If house prices were obviously due for a fall next year we would all sell immediately and the fall would happen now instead. That is why the future of house prices will never be obvious.

Continued at timharford.com.

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