Scroogenomics

November 2nd, 2009 8:48am

Joel Waldfogel, author of “The Deadweight Loss of Christmas”, has a book on the subject, “Scroogenomics“. Appropriately, it is a quintessential gift: beautifully presented but under the glorious exterior there’s not that much there: it’s about the size of a pocket diary. I’d guess it’s 20,000 words, tops…

I like it, though, having read the first half over breakfast. I’ll try to deliver a proper response in an appropriately-seasonal column.

If you want to see Waldfogel defend his thesis, go to the LSE on 3 December. I’ll be giving my own take on Waldfogel courtesy of the School of Life on 13 December - and I think Joel has it wrong. (But I’ll read on: he has thought about this a lot.) Here is my earlier take on Joel Waldfogel; here is the man himself.

The Big Questions

October 29th, 2009 8:43am

Steven Landsburg, author of the original pop-econ book, the wonderful “The Armchair Economist”, is blogging in support of a new book, “The Big Questions: Tackling the problems of of philosophy with ideas from mathematics, economics and physics”. I expect he will infuriate everyone because that’s his style.

The blog is here. The first two posts are on healthcare reform (insurance is part of the problem: well said!) and on why Richard Dawkins is wrong about God.

What I’ve been reading: Why Most Things Fail

October 27th, 2009 4:22pm

This is Paul Ormerod’s offering from 2005. I’m catching up. I enjoyed the book very much, although felt the last chapters were by far the best and most original. In them Ormerod studies patterns of biological extinctions and corporate bankruptcies, looks at the mathematical models that best explain them, and concludes that businesses appear to die out without any process of effective foresight, much as biological species do. Lots to chew over - an inspiration.

On my bookshelf (but not read yet)

October 22nd, 2009 12:35pm

Mia de Kuijper, Profit Power Economics. Read more about it in the Times.

William Higham, The Next Big Thing. A book about trend marketing. I am sceptical on principle but perhaps the book is good.

Yoram Bauman, The Cartoon Introduction to Economics. I saw some early drafts and it looked very promising.

Brian W. Arthur, The Nature of Technology. Self-recommending.

Erik Brynjolfsson and Adam Saunders, Wired for Innovation. Ditto.

Malcolm Gladwell, What the Dog Saw. I skimmed this before an interview with Gladwell, although I have read most of it already because it is a collection of his New Yorker pieces, which I usually enjoy. Here is the FT review.

Steven Levitt in controversial claim shock…

October 20th, 2009 9:58am

Perhaps I was naive in my reading of Superfreakonomics, but it didn’t occur to me that the chapter on geoengineering would stir up such a storm. I liked the book, but worried about the chapter. I wrote:

As for the final chapter on global warming, it is a striking discussion of geo-engineering, surveying various schemes for cooling down the planet rather than trying to prevent climate change by cutting carbon emissions. This is a strong story, but it is also one-sided, portraying the geo-engineers as brilliant iconoclasts, dismissing the objections to geo-engineering as the knee-jerk reaction of the unreflective, and failing to convey the views of a single credible geo-engineering sceptic. A well-deserved swipe at Al Gore does not really count.

According to this chapter, the only reason everyone is making so much fuss about carbon dioxide is that they’ve never heard of geo-engineering, or are the kind of stubborn Luddites who think technology never solved anything. I have some sympathy with that view but the section nevertheless needed more balance.

Anyway, others have put their criticism in rather firmer terms. (Brad DeLong even thinks the above paragraphs constitute a defence of the global warming chapter; well, you be the judge of that. I won’t deny that I liked the book overall.) Those who are interested could do worse than start at Free Exchange and follow the links. The uberbloggers you’ll find for yourselves, but also check out Yoram Bauman and Joshua Gans. Stephen Dubner defends the chapter here.

As for me? (Not that I am an expert: I presume I was invited to review the book because I am authority on popular economics writing, not an authority on climate change.) Well, I read all the criticism and the back and forth, went back to the original review, which I penned three weeks ago, and… I don’t think I’d change a word. It is a strong story. And it is one-sided.

Update: Nathan Myhrvold responds at Freaknomomics. Brad DeLong apologises to me, which is decent of him but not really necessary.

Buy my book or the hedgehog gets it…

October 18th, 2009 10:39am

Here’s the hedgehog. Here’s the book. Thanks to NPR and Planet Money for inviting me on!

Superfreakonomics reviewed

October 17th, 2009 10:28am

Superfreakonomics: Global Cooling, Patriotic Prostitutes and Why Suicide Bombers Should Buy Life Insurance
By Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner
Allen Lane £20, 288 pages
FT Bookshop price: £16

For fans of the multimillion-selling pop-economics book, Freakonomics, all that needs to be said is that the sequel’s title is an accurate description. This book is a lot like Freakonomics, but better.

The original, a runaway hit, had its genesis in Stephen Dubner’s masterful New York Times Magazine profile of “rogue economist” Steven Levitt. “Rogue” may be stretching it a bit, because Levitt is, in fact, a garlanded and hugely influential professor at the University of Chicago…

Read the full article here.

What I’ve been reading

October 16th, 2009 3:26pm

Streetlights and Shadows by Gary Klein. A very interesting, well-written discussion of how decisions are made well and badly. Klein lists a number of apparently-obvious truths, eg “We can reduce uncertainty by gathering more information” and “The starting point for any project is to get a clear description of the goal” and argues that they are often false.

More specifically, such statements tend to be true in “streetlights” - simple, static situations but not in “shadows” - complex, fast-moving or unexpected situations. Lots of memorable case studies. Recommended.

Dan Brown and the mystery of the lost profit margin

October 5th, 2009 1:19am

According to his publisher, Dan “Da Vinci Code” Brown’s latest book, The Lost Symbol, sold more copies in its first 36 hours than any other adult hardback sold in total. (A certain boy wizard is excluded by the artful qualifier, “adult”.) The sales of Brown’s book were given a boost by an unprecedented price war. According to The Bookseller, an industry magazine, Waterstone’s offered a mere 50 per cent discount – £9.49 instead of £18.99. Tesco asked £7 and Asda £5. Asda’s book buyer celebrated “fantastic” sales, despite the fact that the store is thought to be losing £4 a copy. The old joke is made real: losing money on every sale, but making it up on volume.

Asda’s price wasn’t even the lowest available. The Book Depository, an online retailer, grabbed headlines with a price of £4.99 – whereupon Amazon quickly cut prices to match. These prices have prompted many people in the industry to feats of rhetorical self-flagellation. Industry insiders complained to The Bookseller about “ridiculously aggressive discounting” and asked “how can the book trade take itself seriously?”

To an economist, of course, this all makes perfect sense. Muddled thinking tempts us to speak of “the book trade” as a single sentient being. If it were, discounting a sure-fire bestseller from £18.99 to £4.99 would make no sense at all. But, happily for Dan Brown fans, the book trade does not have a single voice in charge and it would be illegal to appoint one.

The remainder of this article can be read here. Please post comments below.

New Book: Dear Undercover Economist

August 5th, 2009 4:33pm

My new book, “Dear Undercover Economist“, is out this week in the UK, Australia, New Zealand, India and South Africa. The US and Canadian editions will be along in three weeks.

Dear Undercover Economist is a collection of my favourite “Dear Economist” columns from 2003-2008. Loyal FT readers will get the idea, but here’s a sample:

Dear Economist,

I work as an escort in Canary Wharf. I wonder if you might have some sound business advice on how workers in my industry should tackle the sudden drop in demand following the collapse of Lehman Brothers?
Miss C

Dear Miss C,

I wasn’t aware that escort services were pro-cyclical, but I shall take your word for it. You have three options, none of them perfect.

One: relocate. Canary Wharf is a pure banking play, and you could seek a more diversified market. The West End is full of hedge funds, oil barons and old money. However, I recognise that it will take some effort to find new clients. The economist Steve Levitt and sociologist Sudhir Venkatesh discovered, in a recent analysis of Chicago street prostitution, that the industry was very concentrated because prostitutes and clients would otherwise fail to find each other. You, of course, are not in quite the same game and may be able to relocate with ease.

Two: tough it out at Canary Wharf and hope that supply falls to match demand. Levitt and Venkatesh found that the supply of street prostitution was highly elastic in response to a demand surge. (The fourth of July holiday provokes a spike in trade for prostitutes – who knew?) Existing prostitutes would work longer hours, other prostitutes would travel to the area, and women who didn’t normally work as prostitutes at all would dabble in the business. This suggests that many of your rivals will find something else to do in the tough times.

Three: you may find that escort services are a little like estate agency, in that even severe demand shocks don’t tend to reduce fees. You’d find yourself well paid when in work, but frequently idle. That spare time could be used to study or find a part-time sideline.

I would give exactly the same advice to an estate agent.