Dear Economist: Michael Jackson: ticket or refund?

July 4th, 2009 3:01am

Having just read the chapter on game theory in your book, The Undercover Economist, I discovered that Michael Jackson fans (circa 800,000 of them) are being offered the chance to receive their concert tickets as a memento, in place of a refund. I presume the future value of any one ticket will depend almost exclusively on the choices of the other 799,999 fans. To the non-nostalgic fan, who wishes only to see the best financial outcome, what would be your advice based on a game theory analysis?
Patrick Hudson

Dear Patrick,

I think it is safe to assume that if 799,999 fans take the memento ticket, the remaining fan would be better off taking the refund, while if 799,999 fans take the refund and one fan takes the ticket, the ticket will be very valuable. (We must also assume that the concert promoters will not then flood the market with the other 799,999 unwanted tickets.)

From a game theorist’s perspective, the equilibrium solution is clear. Let us say that memento and refund are equally valuable if 100,000 take the memento and 700,000 take the refund. In that case, each fan should independently adopt a “mixed strategy” with a one-eighth probability of taking the memento. (A nerdy hint: roll three dice; there is a one in eight chance that the total is exactly 10.) Every fan will be happy to randomise, because every fan will know that either way, he or she will get something of equivalent value.

I realise all this sounds implausible, and it is. Game theory makes demanding assumptions about human rationality that may not apply to grieving fans. I would pay closer attention to research in economic psychology that suggests people are very unwilling to part with an item once they feel a sense of ownership. A non-nostalgic fan should go for the refund.

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NPR Podcast: The economics of cheating on your wife

July 2nd, 2009 9:11am

I did an interview with NPR’s “Planet Money” about what economics can tell you about infidelity. We also covered speed dating, domestic violence and changes in economic methods from Gary Becker to Stevenson and Wolfers. You can listen on the Planet Money site.

Dear Economist: Does inflation reflect the size of Mars Bars?

June 27th, 2009 1:42am

I wish I frequented the same high street as the statisticians who calculate measures of inflation. Given their calculations include “Various selected popular brands of sweets, chocolates, gum”, will they take note of a Mars Bar shrinking in size from 62.5g to 58g while remaining the same price? I make this an effective price increase of 7.76%. If not, when are those lying bastards going to stop lying to me?
Ralph Corderoy

Dear Mr Corderoy,

Your arithmetic is correct but your objection is confused. The statisticians – or “lying bastards”, au choix – do indeed adjust for such changes. It is far easier for them to do that than to make the many other adjustments they attempt every year to cope with the fact that nobody knows how many gramophones there are in an iPod.

Certainly, you are right to suspect that when the bean-counters go out to calculate inflation, they are not buying exactly the same products that you buy. How could they? Some people spend a lot on petrol, heating and mortgage payments; others are more interested in clothes, fast-food and laptops. The statisticians’ best can never be quite good enough.

I will concede, though, that the Mars Bar has been worthy of scrutiny ever since the late Nico Colchester noted in the Financial Times back in 1981 that it was a very stable unit of account. It is a veritable ingot of basic commodities (sugar, milk, cocoa) that has kept its value relative to the price of other goods such as small cars, which have cost about 20,000 Mars Bars for the past 70 years.

Fortunately, there is no strong trend towards debasing the Mars Bar – its weight has always fluctuated. It weighed 57g in the late 1970s and as much as 67g in the mid-1980s: 58g is simply a return to historical norms after something of a Mars Bar bubble.

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Dear Economist: Which was football’s biggest transfer fee?

June 20th, 2009 1:45am

At the time, Kaká’s transfer fee from AC Milan to Real Madrid was reported to be the largest in the world, clocking in at £57.5m (€67.2m). However, in terms of euros, Zinedine Zidane’s transfer from Juventus to Real Madrid in 2001 was the largest, at €76m (£46m). Given that both transfers happened solely in the eurozone, with no English clubs involved, how can we claim this is a world record transfer?
Ed Lewis, London

Dear Mr Lewis,

The fact that the pound was strong in 2001 and weak today does not justify the suggestion that Kaká’s transfer fee is larger than Zidane’s, so you are right to query the way this has been reported. But the problem goes deeper than you suggest. Even if both transfers had taken place in the UK, a 2001 pound is not the same as a 2009 pound.

I have before me an illustration of the so-called world transfer records, courtesy of the BBC. These start in 1905 with Common (£1,000), move through Jeppson (£52,000, 1952), Maradona (£5m, 1984) and others, to Ronaldo (£80m, 2009). But it is absurd to suggest that Ronaldo’s transfer fee was 16 times greater than Maradona’s or 80,000 times greater than Common’s.

According to www.measuringworth.com, £1,000 in 1905 is worth about £80,000 today if adjusted for retail price inflation, and about £425,000 today relative to average earnings. Maradona’s £5m transfer fee in 1984 is worth £12m or £17.5m today, by the same metrics. Cristiano Ronaldo’s transfer fee of £80m is titanic enough to need no flattering.

I am sure the press fail to make these adjustments because they want to be able to announce new records. In future, perhaps they should first convert all monetary sums into Zimbabwean dollars. Records would tumble daily.

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Dear Economist: Is barter the best way to move home?

June 13th, 2009 3:01am

One of the first lessons I learnt in Econ101 was that barter trade is inefficient compared with a money economy. Yet, in an interesting article in the FT’s House & Home section (“Fair Trade”, May 16 2009) I read about the rising popularity of websites through which people can swap houses, instead of buying and selling them. Is this another example of how useful my economics degree is?
Confused Economist

Dear Confused,

Up to a point. Your degree probably did not contain much behavioural economics, and that would have been helpful to understand half of the story. People tend to form strong views about what a fair price is for a house, and behavioural economists call this “anchoring”.

Anchoring can take extreme forms. Experimental subjects have been known to be influenced by contemplating the last two digits of their national insurance number or other obviously random numbers. More commonly, people fixate on what some estate agent told them was their home’s value at the peak of the market. When the market weakens, prices do not so much fall as evaporate, as sellers cling on to the hope of a price that buyers are not willing to pay.

Under the circumstances it should not be surprising that barter has become more common. Neither seller needs to acknowledge that his precious house has become less valuable; they simply recognise the fact that their homes are of similar value and get on with the trade.

Still, the practice is not entirely the product of a psychological quirk. In a market as thin as this one, selling a house and buying another one is a big financial risk. Prices can move a long way before the two trades are finalised, and so swapping hedges both parties against that risk. Your degree has a little life left in it yet.

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Dear Economist: Should I eat cheap food to save money?

June 6th, 2009 3:08am

You have advised readers that, in blind tests, most people like the taste of inexpensive wine, and that their impressions of wine are more closely correlated with the price tag than with expert opinion. In other words, it is possible to save money by drinking plonk. In these straitened times, can we draw similar conclusions about food?
Harry Nicholas, Los Angeles

Dear Harry,

My gurus in these matters are the members of the American Association of Wine Economists, and a new AAWE working paper, “Can people distinguish pâté from dog food?”, suggests an answer to your question. The authors were the “Gonzo Scientist” John Bohannon and two food critics who had worked on the earlier findings on cheap wine.

The appearance of food is key, so it was an important breakthrough to realise that dog food and pâté look much the same – once the former has been blended to a mousse-like consistency and garnished with parsley. In order to win over some subjects without deceit, the experimenters began with a wine-tasting session. Subjects were then offered two quality pâtés, two cheap imitations (puréed liverwurst and puréed spam) and the dog food – all accompanied by Carr’s water biscuits.

The results were surprising. Subjects overwhelmingly rated Dish C (the dog food) as the least tasty. However, few actually thought Dish C contained dog food. Broadly, people thought that Dish E (the liverwurst) was the dog food; they also thought it tasted good. Disappointingly, most people correctly identified the expensive pâtés, and the blind-taste rankings correlated exactly with the (unseen) price tags. In other words, there are no bargains to be had by serving dog food to dinner party guests. No wonder economics is known as the dismal science.

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Dear Economist: How unusual is my husband’s porn habit?

May 30th, 2009 3:30am

Having become more computer-literate in recent months, I have made an unpleasant discovery. My husband has been visiting pornographic websites and has also downloaded explicit videos. I love my husband, but am not sure what to do now. Is his behaviour common?
Katie Durlap, Cincinnati, Ohio

Dear Katie,

If only you had a subscription to the Journal of Economic Perspectives. One of its regular features is a data-driven description of different markets in action, most recently a study by Benjamin Edelman asking “Who buys online adult entertainment?”

The latest data reported are from 2006, when adult entertainment clocked up $13bn in retail sales in the US – about $50 per adult, presumably somewhat skewed towards men. Much of this was video sales and rentals, but internet and cable subscriptions are also substantial and, unlike video, growing briskly.

Paid subscriptions to internet porn sites remain a minority hobby. Edelman studied subscriptions to one top 10 service provider and found that almost all states had between two and three subscribers per 1,000 home broadband users. Ohio, incidentally, is towards the low end of that range.

Is your husband, then, unusual? Not that unusual. Scale up Edelman’s numbers to include other service providers, add cable subscriptions and you’d conclude that about 5 per cent of connected households are paying for regular porn. This doesn’t include the largest category, video rental – and more importantly, doesn’t include free internet porn. Since free internet porn is ubiquitous and presumably more private, one can only surmise that it is far more widespread.

I can’t tell you what to do about your husband – but he is certainly not alone.

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Dear Economist: Can you help me to stop procrastinating?

May 23rd, 2009 3:30am

I tend to procrastinate and leave tasks until the very last moment. As a consequence, I always feel as though I could have done more and that my potential has been somewhat unfulfilled. However, I find I concentrate much better and am more prolific with a deadline dangerously close. Can economics help me resolve this tension?
T.N., Limerick, Ireland

Dear T.N.,

The answer is obvious: make sure you always have a deadline to hand, and you will always be prolific. That, at least, is the logical implication of your letter. It is also backed up by research.

The behavioural economists Dan Ariely and Klaus Wertenbroch conducted an instructive study of procrastination with three groups of students at MIT. Each group had to complete three assignments over the course of the 12-week course. The first group had a separate deadline for each paper, after four, eight and 12 weeks. The second group had no intermediate deadlines: all three papers were due at the end of the course. Students in the third group were asked to impose their own deadlines.

Students with well-spaced deadlines – those in the first group and a subset in the third who had spaced out their deadlines – tended to achieve the highest grades. Students who had assigned themselves no intermediate deadlines, or had been assigned none, fared poorly.

You must learn this lesson. Ensure that a binding deadline is always looming. Chop up large tasks into smaller ones and assign a deadline for each one. If you do not have a professor willing to make these deadlines meaningful, you can do so yourself. Make firm commitments to your colleagues or clients. Alternatively, write out a schedule and make bets with a few friends that you’ll stick to it. If “the very last moment” is always “now”, you’ll be the world’s most productive procrastinator.

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Dear Economist: I’m leaving England. Should I sell up?

May 16th, 2009 3:00am

Should I sell my home and liberate cash? If I sell today I will have made a 400 per cent return over 12 years. I am not English and will be leaving the country for an extended period, perhaps for ever. However, I don’t have to sell and I love my home dearly.
Max Mulhern

Dear Max,

You need to move away from qualitative pros and cons, especially since few of the ones you give stand up to scrutiny. A quantitative estimate of costs and benefits is more useful.

Let’s start with your estimate of a 400 per cent return over 12 years. You do not state whether this is before or after inflation, but who cares? It is the likely future return that matters for your decision. You do not know that and neither do I, but I suspect it will be poor.

Make a guess, and add the income you would expect if you let out your house – assuming this is what you would do. Those are the financial benefits of keeping the house.

On the other side of the equation, make a guess as to the return you could earn if you simply sold your home and invested the cash in the best available prospects. Bear in mind that you might even buy a home overseas; this would have the distinct advantage that you could live in it. These are the opportunity costs of retaining your existing house.

So, yes – the opportunity costs will outweigh the likely financial benefits of keeping your home. Fine. You imply that you are wealthy and declare that you love your home. Perhaps this affection is strong enough to outweigh the financial loss, but I doubt it. Behavioural economists warn of the “endowment effect”, in which people irrationally overvalue what they already have – the “bird in the hand” maxim inflated to unwise proportions. So make your choice: but first, figure out how much your sentimentality will cost you.

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Dear Economist: Should I pay more for a guilt-free smoke?

May 9th, 2009 3:00am

I notice that my tobacco packet includes merely a helpline number for people who want to quit, and not a grotesque picture of someone in the advanced stages of a smoking-related disease. This leads me to conclude that I might be prepared to pay more for my tobacco if its legally required guilt trips were in text form rather than pictures. Am I on to something?
Ms Lovegrove, Oxford

Dear Ms Lovegrove,

I think you just might be. The pictures you describe are a form of “product sabotage”, a tactic used by companies with some pricing power. Some customers are very sensitive to price while others pay less attention to it. The sensible business, then, will try to separate the two groups and charge them different prices for similar products. This can be easier if the cheaper product is given some additional defect that the price-sensitive customer will swallow and the price-blind customer will not.

Examples abound. Tesco Value products are cheap, but the packaging reminds me of an emergency food drop from the United Nations. The “short cappuccino” from Starbucks is cheap – and not advertised on the menu. Most software packages have a cheaper version in which features are disabled at the vendor’s expense. Some hardware does, too.

The government could allow the sale of tobacco under two different conditions: the current version, with tax and disturbing pictures, and a “guilt-free” version with no pictures but a higher tax. The effect would be something to test, but I would expect school children and the poor to choose the traditional version, while older and more affluent smokers would buy the premium version. I would guess that with two different schemes available, the government should be able to discourage more smokers while also raising extra cash.

Or perhaps I am just smoking something.

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