Dear Economist

I’ve been dating a great, loving and caring woman for a year and a half. She’s in her early thirties – eight years older than me – and works as a senior manager in a big company; she earns around £60,000pa, and her company provides a car and a city-centre flat. I am about to finish my PhD and my stipend is £14,000pa.

We’re in love and think it’s about time to move our relationship to the next level – which is moving in together. However, I feel that my girlfriend is stingy towards me. I’m the one who treats at posh restaurants and buys expensive gifts, and when we spoke about me moving into her flat she said that I’d have to pay the bills in return.

I’m finding it silly to mention such things, but they do annoy me. Am I shallow, greedy and opportunist? I understand her pay isn’t supposed to be a perk of our relationship but I must admit that, deep inside, I feel that a better lifestyle out of it wouldn’t go amiss.
Confused student

Dear Confused,

Your girlfriend is testing you, and you are at risk of failing. Naturally she is pleased to have a young, intelligent boyfriend, but she is worried that you only love her for her cash and will dump her for a younger model once you have a decent income of your own.

So she is using a “screen”, as described by Nobel laureate Michael Spence. By ensuring that she remains a cost centre rather than a cash cow, she is creating a situation that would be intolerable to a genuine gold-digger. She wants to see how you react, but by assuming that the “next level” is a free apartment for you, rather than a proposal of marriage, you are simply confirming her fears. Forget the flat, buy her a diamond ring, and she will mellow.

All this assumes, of course, that she is not just a miserly sociopath. Either way, good luck.

Questions to economist@ft.com

There seem to be economic benefits for a society where people are law-abiding, trustworthy, caring and generally nice. You get less cheating, and where you feel you can trust people, you can enter into business dealings with more confidence. Has anyone calculated the economic value of people being nice? And could a government invest in people being nice? If so, what would be the return on that investment?
James Atkins

Dear James,

Even economists would recognise that niceness is valuable for its own sake. But you are right, it is also good for the economy. Steve Knack, an economist who specialises in governance, trust and social capital (translation: niceness) once told me that, taking a broad definition of trust, it would explain the difference between the per capita income of the US and Somalia. That is, niceness and its cousins are worth about 99.5 per cent of US national income.

There are limits, though. When people trust each other, they become vulnerable to cheats. A recent paper by economists Jeff Butler, Paola Giuliano and Luigi Guiso finds that for an individual, there’s an optimal level of trust in others. Too little and you’re over-conservative, missing opportunities; too much and you get screwed. The effects are large, similar to the difference between going to college or not.

It is not clear how a government might encourage people to be nicer, but one famous economic study does suggest a way: Ray Fisman and Ted Miguel looked at the behaviour of diplomats in New York. The Scandinavians committed 12 unpaid parking violations between them; diplomats from Chad and Bangladesh notched up over 2,500. But when the city was given more power to punish offenders, all the diplomats cleaned up their act – niceness is best supported by legal incentives.

Questions to economist@ft.com

I was recently given notice that my position will be eliminated at the end of the month. My employer is offering two months’ severance.
I’m thinking about changing industries, from finance to clean tech, and moving from the US to Europe. I’m in my late twenties, single, and able to relocate – something less likely to be the case after my next position.
Making such a drastic change may prove difficult and take longer than two months. On the other hand, I can stay here and take a job in the same industry relatively quickly. Should I go big and risk a long unemployment or play it safe and take a job now?
Jeremy

Dear Jeremy,

“Behavioural economics” work on the boundary between psychology and economics offers relevant insights here. Unfortunately, it provides two entirely contradictory messages.

On one hand, you may be suffering from “hyperbolic discounting” – a tendency to weigh immediate costs too heavily and ignore longer-term benefits. You have three or four decades ahead of you, and yet you are focusing on a few weeks’ unemployment.

On the other hand, economist Johannes Spinnewijn has discovered that job-searchers tend to be far too optimistic about their chances of finding a new job quickly. So you are probably underestimating the risks at the same time as you focus too much upon them.

So let me put aside the contradictions of behavioural economics and rely instead on economic history. Experience suggests that grand transformative projects – Mao’s Great Leap Forward, the UK’s nuclear power “jackpot” – end in disaster. A gradual approach is better. Your own plan is to switch industries and continents from a precarious position on the dole. Would it really be impossible to reach your dream career step by step instead?

Questions to economist@ft.com

With regard to the controversial goal that has shattered Irish World Cup hopes, how would an economist have chosen to control the ball in Thierry Henry’s position? Given that the rewards so greatly exceed the risks, would it have made any economic sense not to handle the ball? Is this a form of moral hazard?
Rich Stevenson, Oxford

Dear Rich,

Allow me to answer the questions in reverse order. Moral hazard describes a situation where a decision-maker takes unwarranted risks because he or she has been provided with some kind of safety net. Examples include people who insure their cars and then don’t park securely, or financial traders who gamble because they get bonuses for profitable trades, but no real penalty for losing money. Thierry Henry committed a deliberate handball and set up the winning goal for France. I cannot quite see the parallel with moral hazard.

As for the risks and rewards, I think you are extremely confused. You say that the rewards exceed the risks, but we must ask to whom those risks and rewards accrue.

Henry has been selfless. The rewards of his cheating go largely to his team-mates, who get to go to the World Cup with their names unblemished, and to fans of French football, once they get over the embarrassment – which they will. Henry himself faced all the risks. He might have been cautioned or sent off, but surely the far greater risk was what happened: only the TV cameras noticed the handball and a great striker’s reputation was tarnished. His subsequent pronouncements of guilt, shame and remorse have hardly put matters right.

So, what would an economist have done? The answer is absolutely clear: economists would never cheat in front of the camera. Their fans and team-mates might be frustrated with them, but their sponsors would be delighted.

Questions to economist@ft.com

I’m a 32-year-old American woman; I moved to Italy about five years ago and later applied for a master’s programme at an Italian university. Average earnings for my BA in political science are low, so I wasn’t missing out on much.
My problems are two-fold: first, dating. Italy has the second-oldest population in the world. Seeing a single thirtysomething is like finding a unicorn. Eliminate men who live with their mothers, are chain-smokers, or are shorter than me, and I’m in a convent.
Second, my Italian university has decided to reverse its previous decision to accept my American degree. I am being forced to re-earn an Italian BA, which could take a further year.
I’d hate to turn down another degree, but can I handle another year’s worth of pasta and enforced singledom?
My current plan includes going to San Francisco upon my return, though I do have the choice of a semi-permanent job with Nike in the middle of nowhere. Or I could stay in Italy; but if I spend another year single, according to my mother, I will die alone.
Crying in my cappuccino

Dear Crying,

You appear to be committed to staying in a country whose food, bureaucracy and dating scene do not suit you. Your judgment has been clouded by the sunk-cost fallacy: you hoped to get a master’s degree, great food and an Italian paramour. Things didn’t work out and you have wasted five years. You’re only human if you want to waste another year or two, but you’re making a mistake. Go home.

As for your career, forget cash: the happiness literature suggests that a happy relationship and secure job are far more important. San Francisco is not famed for its excess of single straight men, but the demographics of the middle of nowhere are excellent, with many eligible bachelors. Your new life awaits.

Questions to economist@ft.com

My newlywed wife and I are deeply in love. There is, however, one issue that threatens the blissful fabric of our marriage. I absolutely insist upon shopping at Walmart. My wife, meanwhile, would rather avoid Walmart at all costs.
I have recently tried to convince her that not only does Walmart offer the lowest prices known to man, but that the chain is also a force for good – lower prices mean better standards of living for all consumers, increased global trade means a tighter-knit international community, and efficient operations translate into higher productivity growth for the economy. My wife complains about poor labour policies, the “fact” that Walmart squeezes suppliers, and that it puts local shops out of business.
Who is right? Will our marriage survive?
Brian Gee

Dear Brian,

I have to agree with you about Walmart. Jason Furman, then an economist at New York University, now an adviser to President Obama, famously argued in 2005 that Walmart was (unwittingly) a progressive success story. The chain’s prices don’t much affect me (I prefer Whole Foods) but Furman reckoned that they benefited low- and middle-income Americans to the tune of around $250bn a year.

Walmart does not pay much, so it may depress wages. Then again, it may boost wages by offering jobs to the otherwise-unemployed. Either way, the benefits of low prices to Walmart shoppers far outweigh any plausible costs to Walmart employees. And while it is true that Walmart employees tend to be poor, the same is true of Walmart shoppers.

Armed with this information you can confront your wife with confidence. You are sure to win the conversation. The divorce is likely to be more keenly contested.

Questions to economist@ft.com

My son has two children and my daughter four. I propose to give £5,000 to each grandchild in my will. Would this be equitable, given that £20,000 would go to my daughter’s side of the family and only £10,000 to my son’s?
Mr Robinson

Dear Mr Robinson,

Let me be frank: at first glance I thought your dilemma was idiotic. If you want to hand out equal shares, that’s fine – but make your mind up. Given your daughter’s fecundity and some basic arithmetic it is quite clear that you cannot simultaneously give equal shares to grandchildren and to children.

Why, then, would you hand out £5,000 to each grandchild and still fret about fairness between your children? Your children don’t get the money; your grandchildren do. Similarly, it would make no sense to hand out £15,000 to each child and then start worrying that your grandchildren had been unequally treated.

Yet arch-rationalists such as Gary Becker or Robert Barro might leap to your defence. Assume your children are Becker-Barro altruists. This means that they care not about how much cash they give, but about the total sum their children receive from all sources.

If you give your grandchildren £5,000 each, that is simply £5,000 that their parents don’t have to give. They will adjust their bequests in the light of yours. Viewed in this way, your attempts to give money to your grandchildren are really hidden transfers to your children – and you would be quite right to worry that your daughter was getting more than your son.

But before you pat yourself on the back (Becker has a Nobel prize; Barro may get one too), ask yourself if your children are Becker-Barro altruists. Most people focus narrowly on their bequests, not on the total receipts of their offspring. I doubt your children are Becker-Barro altruists. After all, you aren’t.

Questions to economist@ft.com

When the Chancellor of the Exchequer reduced value-added tax from 17.5 per cent to 15 per cent as an incentive for consumers to spend, there was a widespread view that the reduction was too small to be of use. Now that we are approaching the time when VAT returns to 17.5 per cent, some retailers say that the increase will have a negative impact. This doesn’t sound logical, but is it true?
Andrew Hewett, Hertford

Dear Andrew,

I remember the complaints well: how is a 2.5 per cent cut in the price of goods going to boost spending? (Let us leave aside the facts that while the cut was 2.5 percentage points, it was actually only 2.1 per cent; that not all goods are liable for the tax; and that some retailers decided to increase pre-tax prices rather than reduce post-tax prices.) And in truth, the VAT cut, while billed as a “stimulus”, was tiny compared with the vast government deficit.

My own view is that people are price-sensitive, so the modest VAT cut probably had a modest effect, the increase will reverse that effect, and the details will be so small that we will never know for sure.

Is it logical to claim that the cut was pointless but the rise is significant? The motive for the claim is obvious enough. And it may be justified. The switch each way caused a fixed cost: menus had to be printed, staff trained, accounts re-counted and tills reprogrammed. It is reasonable, and perhaps true, to say that the benefits for businesses of the VAT cut were swallowed by the costs of adjustment. The VAT rise, and a second round of adjustment costs, simply adds injury to the insult.

Psychology may be at work too. Behavioural economists believe in “the endowment effect”, a tendency for people to overvalue the status quo. The VAT cut seemed trivial until retailers got used to it. Now they regard it as indispensable.

Questions to economist@ft.com

Marketplace worked with me to produce this video about the economics of signalling in the workplace. They did a fantastic job, and you even get to hear my David Attenborough impression. The video is loosely based on one of the Dear Economist letters. Enjoy!

Do waiters in mid-priced restaurants work less than those at high-end ones? If not, shouldn’t their tips be the same (in absolute terms)?
Manoj

Dear Manoj,

I can see where you’re coming from: a 10 per cent tip on a £20 meal is less than a 10 per cent tip on a £100 meal. If it’s the same waiter doing the same job, shouldn’t the tip be, say, £5 for each meal – a 25 per cent tip in one case and a 5 per cent tip in the other?

This is not what happens. According to a survey by the economist Ofer Azar, the absolute size of tips in the US is overwhelmingly dependent on the size of the bill. In Europe, formal service charges often replace tips and the FT’s restaurant insider, Nicholas Lander, tells me that such charges tend to be proportionate to the bill – or if anything, to be a higher percentage in the fanciest restaurants.

I am not sure the puzzle is quite as perplexing as you think, though. First, the connection between what the customer tips and what the waiter gets is far from straightforward. Waiters are not slaves: if tips are too low to attract them, then the restaurant owner will have to add a wage. And if a waiter can earn hundreds of pounds in tips at a top restaurant, the owner will be able to demand a share without running short of staff.

Second, high-priced restaurants tend to have fewer customers per waiter, to ensure attentive service. They receive higher tips, but fewer of them.

Despite these points, it is of course possible that waiters are paid more in better restaurants. But in a capitalist society, skilled workers expect to earn more. I suggest you sample the quality of service at El Bulli or the Fat Duck, and pop into Pizza Hut on the way home. Then tell me again that the waiters should earn the same at each place.

Questions to economist@ft.com

Tim Harford’s blog

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Tim, also known as the Undercover Economist, writes about the economics of everyday life.

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