September 20, 2007
Between a rock and a hard place
Has the Northern Rock crisis delivered a serious blow to Gordon Brown’s reputation as the dependable helmsman of Britain’s economy?
On the face of it the answer should be Yes. The sight of queues of panicking savers in the High Street will linger in the memory and the Conservatives have assembled a compelling political line that the whole affair is symptomatic of an unstable economy built on "a mountain of debt".
But privately, senior Tories are doubtful the affair will cause Mr Brown lasting damage. Nobody (apart from the shareholders in Northern Rock) lost money in the affair, and the former Iron Chancellor’s record will need something more spectacular (unemployment and home repossessions, perhaps) to come tumbling down.
Take a look at the Tempus poll in the Times this week and you see another reason why the Tories are still wary of fighting an election on the economy. Mr Brown and Alistair Darling, his chancellor, continue to be far more trusted in difficult economic times than David Cameron and George Osborne, the shadow chancellor.
And there’s another factor. Remember John Major winning an election in 1992 in the teeth of a recession? The public sometimes cling to what they know in times of trouble (the incumbent) rather than take a leap into the unknown.
So even if the economy nosedives (highly unlikely) Mr Cameron may still be fighting the next election on what he calls the "social recession" - an admission that Mr Brown has the economy right but we just don’t feel happier as a society.
