October 3, 2007
Basra, Brown and election fever
The body politic is showing signs of advanced election fever. Of course there may not be an election on November 1 or November 8 - Gordon Brown is said by colleagues to be still undecided - but the symptoms are everywhere.
Take George Osborne’s plan to tax wealthy non-domiciled residents £25,000 a year: first came Labour’s rebuttal, then the Tory counter-rebuttal, then Labour’s rebuttal of the counter-rebuttal and - finally - the Tory reply to that. That kind of intense politics only ever happens during an election campaign.
Then look at Gordon Brown’s visit to Iraq, a headline grabbing trip clearly timed to overshadow the Tory conference. Then his decision to announce troop withdrawals having previously made great play of the fact he would make his statement when the Commons returns next Monday.
Normally the Tories would have bit their lip in the tradition of taking a non-partisan line on issues of national security. Instead Liam Fox, Tory defence spokesman, launched a scathing attack on Mr Brown, accusing him of a "cynical exploitation of our armed forces".
Then there is the news that Lord Darzi is bringing forward at Mr Brown’s request publication of his report on the NHS to this Thursday. Little wonder speculation is mounting that Mr Brown’s trip to the Palace to start the election campaign could come on Tuesday October 9.
Of course Mr Brown could surprise everyone and announce next week the election is off. But such is the state of expectation - indeed hype - generated by Mr Brown’s own team that Labour would suffer a serious bout of deflation if polling is delayed until next year.
As for David Cameron, it would give his party vital momentum through this autumn, allowing him to build on a successful and galvanising conferfence in Blackpool.
I can’t see how Mr Brown can back down now without suffering severe self-inflicted damage in the process. An election on November 1 may be a bit of a push in terms of Labour preparing their campaign: my money is on polling on November 8.
