October 5, 2007
Election 2007- the countdown continues
Having stuck my neck out and predicted a November election yesterday (while some of my colleagues were saying the opposite), there’s no point backing away now.
I don’t think the headline opinion polls taken in the immediate aftermath of David Cameron’s speech to the Tory conference will make much difference to Gordon Brown as he spends the weekend deciding whether to go to the polls. One of his colleagues tells me he would be "mad" to take much notice of them.
MPs in Labour marginal seats may be getting jumpy after the brilliant Tory move on inheritance tax, but Mr Brown still has several weeks to deconstruct that policy or to come up with some distraction of his own.
The polling still puts Labour within striking distance of a winning 40 per cent share, while the underlying research still gives Mr Brown big leads over Mr Cameron in terms of who the public regards as having the best qualities to be a good prime minister.
Leaving aside the little fact that Mr Brown still has to make up his mind and only he knows what will happen, let me just map out a little "fantasy Gordon" scenario for how the next few days could pan out.
Over the weekend he studies the polls, including the marginal data, and decides that although a November poll is a gamble, things could be much worse for him if he delays.
The economy is slowing down and the Tories will have a huge morale boost if the prime minister looks like he is running away from a fight from David Cameron. Imagine what PM’s questions would sound like next Wednesday. Momentum would be running strongly with the Tories.
So Mr Brown takes the plunge and goes for the election. I would guess the decision will be leaked out over the weekend, possibly to the Sunday newspapers.
On Monday he makes a Commons statement on Iraq. I would imagine that he will give a much broader and longer term guide to Britain’s continued presence in the Basra area than he did on that ill-judged visit to Iraq earlier in the week.
On Tuesday Alistair Darling, chancellor, will deliver his mini-budget. A big splurge on health spending will grab the headlines, along with him pulling some tax rabbit out of the hat. An attack on "non-dom" wealthy foreigners perhaps, to match the Tory proposals? A tax cut elsewhere?
Then Mr Brown heads to the Palace to ask for the dissolution of parliament. Iraq will have been neutralised, the NHS puffed up with cash and the Tories wrong-footed on tax. Game on.
For what it’s worth, the collective wisdom/ignorance of Westminster journalists is (as I write this) that an election is back on. Ben Brogan’s Daily Mail blog, sets out a few reasons why doubts have set in for those who predicted it was off.
The truth is that none of us know. But the pleasure of being a journalist is making these low-cost political guesses. For Mr Brown, the calculation is altogether more serious.
