October 17, 2007
New LibDem leader, new referendum?
My editor has set me the herculean task of finding the "wedge issue" in the Liberal Democrat leadership race. As no candidate has declared their interest, this is proving rather difficult. But I think I have found one: the referendum on the European Union treaty. There is a danger it could make the LibDem race relevant.
A few weeks before Sir Menzies Campbell packed his bags and fled to Edinburgh, he was under pressure to back Conservative calls for a referendum. To defuse the issue, he threw a sop to MPs in euro-sceptic constituencies by backing calls for a referendum on EU membership.
This is a nice idea that everyone can support because it has absolutely no chance of actually happening. More significantly, it effectively let Gordon Brown off the hook - the Tories, Lib Dems and Labour eurosceptics really have to join forces to cause trouble when the reform treaty comes to parliament next year.
Could this cosy compromise with Labour be threatened by the leadership race? Very possibly. Little differentiates Chris Huhne and Nick Clegg, the two favourites to succeed Sir Menzies, at least in terms of policy. They are both economically and socially liberal. But they have to find a way to stand apart.
Most party insiders suspect Mr Huhne will tack left, as he did in the race against Sir Menzies 18 months ago. But why not call for a referendum instead? It would play well with grassroots members in the South-West, where LibDems are being pressed by the Tories. Taking on Gordon highlights his qualities as a "national leader", rather than a creature of the party. It marks him out from Mr Clegg. And it may even be popular.
The contenders are committed to opposing a plebiscite on the treaty. But politicians have been known to change their positions in the past. There have been whispers in Westminster that Mr Huhne was pushing for Sir Menzies to call for a referendum. Vince Cable, the deputy leader who is thinking about standing for the leadership, thinks it is a sensible idea. Nick Clegg may also decide it makes for good politics.
This all suggests the Lib Dems may enter the new year with a new referendum policy. That is sure to worry Gordon Brown much more than whoever the Lib Dems anoint as leader.
Sir Manzies Campbell lost the plot when he lied to us about the constitution. So good riddance to him. Any replacement that is in favour of letting the population have their say in a referendum would be a better choice; even the current crop of senior liberals.
Posted by: JR REID | October 17th, 2007 at 2:30 pm | Report this commentYou’re right.
With their current poll ratings, the Lib Dems would be crazy to continue to ignore an opportunity to align themselves with a view that polls show is supported by upwards of 70% of people - including a large majority of Lib Dem voters.
Confronting opinion like that, and refusing to honour their manifesto promise of a referendum, I think goes a long way to explaining their current struggles with popularity.
It has simply served to reinforce the Lib Dems as a ‘flip flopping’ party - an image they must escape from if they hope to make further progress.
Continuing their earlier democratic, pro-referendum position would be an easy win for the new leader in his/her task to recover the party’s support.
Posted by: Stuart Coster | October 18th, 2007 at 12:42 pm | Report this comment