FIrst off, I was wrong. I couldn’t see how Gordon Brown could back out of a November election without inflicting serious self-harm. It would have been a gamble, but in my view the bigger gamble was to wait, especially since a delay would hand the Tories a propaganda victory and deal his own reputation a heavy blow.

But having cranked up the election hype for weeks (make no mistake, this was not a media creation), Mr Brown’s decision to delay a poll - probably until 2009 - has fundamentally changed the terms of political trade.

The prime minister will be labelled "Bottler Brown", the man who failed to run against Tony Blair for the Labour leadership in 1994, was prepared to wound but not strike Mr Blair when he was PM, who backed out of a promise to hold a referendum on a new EU treaty. Now he is walking away from an election which his own aides had spent the last few weeks talking up.

By contrast David Cameron has been transformed from a political dead man walking - the latest in a line of Tory leaders heading for electoral disaster - into somebody who looks like he could be a winner. The Tories are back in the game.

This whole affair gives the Tories that most valuable of political commodities - momentum. But will there be longer term ramifications for Mr Brown, beyond the humiliation he will face next week when the Commons returns after its summer break?

Long term predictions are pretty pointless. The last few weeks have shown how febrile British public opinion is at the moment, with the polls veering widely from Labour domination to a Tory lead in a matter of days. Small political events can trigger extreme responses from the electorate.

But I think the damage to Mr Brown could outlast the firestorm of the next few days. The Tories have an open goal when it comes to tackling the prime minister’s claim to have risen above squalid party politics - to be some kind of father of the nation: they will say he ran away from an election because of poor opinion polls.

They will also use the episode to attack Mr Brown’s claim to have binned spin. What else has been going on for the last few weeks of election hype? And what about the ill-judged trip to Basra during the Tory conference?

Suddenly the master tactician looks vulnerable. He can bounce back - of course - but this has been a searing episode for the prime minister and his closest advisers. Hubris is the word that springs to mind.

Having stuck my neck out and predicted a November election yesterday (while some of my colleagues were saying the opposite), there’s no point backing away now.

I don’t think the headline opinion polls taken in the immediate aftermath of David Cameron’s speech to the Tory conference will make much difference to Gordon Brown as he spends the weekend deciding whether to go to the polls. One of his colleagues tells me he would be "mad" to take much notice of them.

MPs in Labour marginal seats may be getting jumpy after the brilliant Tory move on inheritance tax, but Mr Brown still has several weeks to deconstruct that policy or to come up with some distraction of his own.

The polling still puts Labour within striking distance of a winning 40 per cent share, while the underlying research still gives Mr Brown big leads over Mr Cameron in terms of who the public regards as having the best qualities to be a good prime minister.

Leaving aside the little fact that Mr Brown still has to make up his mind and only he knows what will happen, let me just map out a little "fantasy Gordon" scenario for how the next few days could pan out.

Over the weekend he studies the polls, including the marginal data, and decides that although a November poll is a gamble, things could be much worse for him if he delays.

The economy is slowing down and the Tories will have a huge morale boost if the prime minister looks like he is running away from a fight from David Cameron. Imagine what PM’s questions would sound like next Wednesday. Momentum would be running strongly with the Tories.

So Mr Brown takes the plunge and goes for the election. I would guess the decision will be leaked out over the weekend, possibly to the Sunday newspapers.

On Monday he makes a Commons statement on Iraq. I would imagine that he will give a much broader and longer term guide to Britain’s continued presence in the Basra area than he did on that ill-judged visit to Iraq earlier in the week.

On Tuesday Alistair Darling, chancellor, will deliver his mini-budget. A big splurge on health spending will grab the headlines, along with him pulling some tax rabbit out of the hat. An attack on "non-dom" wealthy foreigners perhaps, to match the Tory proposals? A tax cut elsewhere?

Then Mr Brown heads to the Palace to ask for the dissolution of parliament. Iraq will have been neutralised, the NHS puffed up with cash and the Tories wrong-footed on tax. Game on.

For what it’s worth, the collective wisdom/ignorance of Westminster journalists is (as I write this) that an election is back on. Ben Brogan’s Daily Mail blog, sets out a few reasons why doubts have set in for those who predicted it was off.

The truth is that none of us know. But the pleasure of being a journalist is making these low-cost political guesses. For Mr Brown, the calculation is altogether more serious.

Westminster is buzzing with rumours that Gordon Brown is about to pull the plug on an autumn election. After David Cameron’s notes-free tour de force at the Tory conference in Blackpool, there suddenly seems to be an outbreak of nerves in the prime minister’s camp.

The most detailed explanation I’ve seen of why Mr Brown might "bottle" an election comes in Ben Brogan’s Daily Mail blog. Some of the Labour excuses for abandoning a November poll are so ludicrous and self-serving they could only have been cooked up by somebody in full panic mode.

The idea that Mr Brown wants more time to unpick the details of the Tory inheritance tax plans - apparently a three week election campaign is simply not long enough - is absurd. As for the idea that the PM is too focussed on fighting foot-and-mouth disease….give me a break.

Does that mean the election is off though? I’ve just spoken to a very senior colleague of Mr Brown who gave quite the opposite impression. This person said it would be "mad" to take too much notice of the inevitable bounce Mr Cameron will get in the polls after the party conference.

Indeed at least one poll - in tomorrow’s Guardian - will show the Tories achieving a substantial bounce. But this Brownite says you have to look at the underlying picture.

I took away from our chat that the election was very much on. Downing St officials tell me "no decision has been taken". Journalists in the lobby are split on whether it is on or off. In the end, only one person knows: Gordon Brown.

No doubt I will be proved completely wrong within hours, but I reckon Mr Brown has gone too far down the election path now to turn back. It is not just the prospect of facing Mr Cameron at Prime Minister’s Questions next Wednesday and a load of Tory MPs baying that he is a coward.

It is the fact that through the autumn, Mr Brown will be dogged by his indecision. Every downturn in the housing market, every poor piece of economic news, every "event", will be presented as proof that he cocked it up by failing to go in November. The momentum will be with the Tories. My guess: election on.

Should Gordon Brown call an election now? Have your say here.

The body politic is showing signs of advanced election fever. Of course there may not be an election on November 1 or November 8 - Gordon Brown is said by colleagues to be still undecided - but the symptoms are everywhere.

Take George Osborne’s plan to tax wealthy non-domiciled residents £25,000 a year: first came Labour’s rebuttal, then the Tory counter-rebuttal, then Labour’s rebuttal of the counter-rebuttal and - finally - the  Tory reply to that. That kind of intense politics only ever happens during an election campaign.

Then look at Gordon Brown’s visit to Iraq, a headline grabbing trip clearly timed to overshadow the Tory conference. Then his decision to announce troop withdrawals having previously made great play of the fact he would make his statement when the Commons returns next Monday.

Normally the Tories would have bit their lip in the tradition of taking a non-partisan line on issues of national security. Instead Liam Fox, Tory defence spokesman, launched a scathing attack on Mr Brown, accusing him of a "cynical exploitation of  our armed forces".

Then there is the news that Lord Darzi is bringing forward at Mr Brown’s request publication of his report on the NHS to this Thursday. Little wonder speculation is mounting that Mr Brown’s trip to the Palace to start the election campaign could come on Tuesday October 9.

Of course Mr Brown could surprise everyone and announce next week the election is off. But such is the state of expectation - indeed hype - generated by Mr Brown’s own team that Labour would suffer a serious bout of deflation if polling is delayed until next year.

As for David Cameron, it would give his party vital momentum through this autumn, allowing him to build on a successful and galvanising conferfence in Blackpool.

I can’t see how Mr Brown can back down now without suffering severe self-inflicted damage in the process. An election on November 1 may be a bit of a push in terms of Labour preparing their campaign: my money is on polling on November 8.