October 4, 2007
Will he, won’t he?
Westminster is buzzing with rumours that Gordon Brown is about to pull the plug on an autumn election. After David Cameron’s notes-free tour de force at the Tory conference in Blackpool, there suddenly seems to be an outbreak of nerves in the prime minister’s camp.
The most detailed explanation I’ve seen of why Mr Brown might "bottle" an election comes in Ben Brogan’s Daily Mail blog. Some of the Labour excuses for abandoning a November poll are so ludicrous and self-serving they could only have been cooked up by somebody in full panic mode.
The idea that Mr Brown wants more time to unpick the details of the Tory inheritance tax plans - apparently a three week election campaign is simply not long enough - is absurd. As for the idea that the PM is too focussed on fighting foot-and-mouth disease….give me a break.
Does that mean the election is off though? I’ve just spoken to a very senior colleague of Mr Brown who gave quite the opposite impression. This person said it would be "mad" to take too much notice of the inevitable bounce Mr Cameron will get in the polls after the party conference.
Indeed at least one poll - in tomorrow’s Guardian - will show the Tories achieving a substantial bounce. But this Brownite says you have to look at the underlying picture.
I took away from our chat that the election was very much on. Downing St officials tell me "no decision has been taken". Journalists in the lobby are split on whether it is on or off. In the end, only one person knows: Gordon Brown.
No doubt I will be proved completely wrong within hours, but I reckon Mr Brown has gone too far down the election path now to turn back. It is not just the prospect of facing Mr Cameron at Prime Minister’s Questions next Wednesday and a load of Tory MPs baying that he is a coward.
It is the fact that through the autumn, Mr Brown will be dogged by his indecision. Every downturn in the housing market, every poor piece of economic news, every "event", will be presented as proof that he cocked it up by failing to go in November. The momentum will be with the Tories. My guess: election on.
Should Gordon Brown call an election now? Have your say here.
