The odds on Chris Huhne winning the Liberal Democrat leadership race never seem to make sense.
Last time round, when he lost to Sir Menzies Campbell, the odds on his victory shortened dramatically for no apparent reason. This gave his "dark horse" campaign some much needed attention. Many suspected that Mr Huhne’s wealthier supporters manipulated the betting market to give him a boost. Whatever the truth of it, the bookies were delighted.
No-one can accuse Mr Huhne of playing the market this time. Take a look at this chart form Betfair, the online betting exchange, showing how Mr Huhne’s odds have moved in this race.
The gap between the two candidates — Nick Clegg has been odds on favourite throughout — narrowed a couple of weeks ago, around the time of a Guardian survey favourable to Mr Huhne.
But since then Mr Huhne’s odds have spiked to now stand at about 5/1.
This is puzzling. For the past week, Mr Huhne has almost been a permanent fixture in television studios talking about dodgy donations to the Labour party.
Yet the betting suggests he has less chance of winning now than at almost any other point in the campaign. Can this be true?
The reason for the spike is a YouGov poll of party members commissioned by Sky News. About half of the respondents said they had already voted, and about 54 per cent of those said they had backed Mr Clegg.
It is the first piece of reasonably reliable data we have had in this race, so to that extent it is important. But is it as conclusive as the movement in the betting market suggests?
Does anyone really think that Mr Clegg is five times more likely to win?