January 8, 2008
Hillary Clinton slips to rank outsider
The results are still not in, but there is little doubt about who the punters think will win the Democratic primary in New Hampshire. Take a look at this graph from Betfair, the online betting exchange, showing the odds on Hillary Clinton winning. Yes, it’s about 30 to 1.
To put it into a British context, the betting world believes Gordon Brown being ousted from Downing Street in the next two months (around 10 to 1) is three times more likely than Hillary winning this evening. This is in a state that she was odds-on to win less than a week ago. It is a remarkable turnaround. Let’s see if the punters are right.
(As an aside, the graph shows an extraordinary spike late this evening to about 70 to 1. I think this coincided with the first reports of a big turnout in New Hampshire, which is likely to help Barack Obama. It also shows what a volatile business betting on politics can be.)
UPDATE
Well, here is the same chart five hours later. The first results are trickling in and the money is moving back towards Hillary with a vengance. Within a matter of an hour Hillary’s odds to win New Hampshire swung from 250 to 1 back to 3 to 1. Quite extraordinary.
