It’s one thing for an MP to put his name to an early day motion – a chance to say “I’m on your side, honest” without actually doing anything.
It’s another to put your name to an amendment which undermines your own government’s finance bill.
That’s why it is hugely significant that 39 Labour rebels have put their names forward to back Frank Field’s clause which would promise compensation for those left worse off by the abolition of the 10p tax rate.
In theory this is enough to defeat the government next Monday - if the small parties and independents join in.
Whips are trying to warn that defeat on this could prompt a vote of no confidence and then – horror of horrors – a general election. But this has a ring of nonsense given that the Labour rebels will only vote against their own side on this one specific issue.
What to watch this week: Will the 39 grow or shrink? Will genuine concessions be offered? What will Alistair Darling say at his 1.30pm meeting today with backbenchers?
We still don’t know how many of the 39 put their names forward before last night’s PLP meeting where Gordon Brown made a rare display of “humanity”* which may sway support his way.
(* Denis McShane, former Europe minister, said it was a “warm, human” speech by the prime minister in contrast to his usual “authoritarian” tones. )
A defeat on Monday would look very bad for the PM. This has only happened twice before:
1977, when Denis Healey was forced to update tax allowances in line with inflation
1994, when John Major failed to extend VAT to fuel
Jim Pickard
Kiran Stacey
