A swing of 17.6 per cent to the Tories cannot be dismissed as “mid-term blues” or, as is often the case, a mildly discontented electorate giving the government a poke.

True, the swing is less than the two big Tory-to-Labour swings of the mid-90s, which preceded the landslide of 1997. Then, Labour took Dudley West (1994) and South-east Staffordshire (1996) with swings of 29 per cent and 22 per cent respectively.

But rewind the clock - 30 years - to the last Labour-to-Conservative byelection victory. That was Ilford North, which was won with a swing of just 7 per cent. It came one year before Margaret Thatcher’s seminal election victory which put the Tories in power for 18 years.

But how would the Conservatives fare in office? George Osborne, shadow chancellor, did not offer a wholly convincing roadmap when interviewed on the Today programme this morning.

As one former Labour minister told me - I interrupted his breakfast this morning - this is a bad time for any government; petrol prices, financial turbulence, commodity prices, inflation. Are the Tories offering much more than the classic “time for a change” message?

“A tiny bit of me says, ‘fuck you Cameron, you try and do it’. I’d love to be in opposition right now, undermining them, writing articles, tearing strips out of their policies,” says the Labour MP.

As an afterthought. The Liberal Democrats won’t be the focus of today’s coverage. But their meagre 15 per cent haul last night bodes ill for the third party. Remember: Lord Rennard and his men used to be known as the byelection pros. This morning, they are eclipsed.  

May 23rd, 2008 in Current Affairs, Gordon Brown, Labour, Uncategorised | Permalink