Daily Archives: June 20, 2008

Jim Pickard

Officials are a bit slow to wake up to the world of the $130 barrel.

The government has revised its estimates for oil prices upwards in the wake of the recent spike, but still believe it will halve in the next 18 months. 

Jim Pickard

I’ve been wondering for a while now how much the shortfall in stamp duty will be this year, given that house sales could be down 40 per cent and prices 10 per cent.  

Lord Oakeshott, the Lib Dem Treasury spokesman for the Lords, has an estimate of £5bn, down from £10.1bn in 2007/8: 

Jim Pickard

Still laughing here at our colleague Robert Shrimsley’s astute take on the Irish no vote and the aftermath: Here it is in full…

“The great figures of Europe met in the wake of the Irish No vote to agree on a way forward.
About one thing they were absolutely clear. “We must respect the Irish vote,” they agreed. “It would be a terrible sign of European arrogance to suggest we could just sweep aside a democratic vote of a member state.”
So they all agreed to go out and tell the Irish how much they respected their vote. And they agreed there must be no bullying; no warning the Irish to get their ungrateful Fenian butts into line or go it alone in miserable and obscure isolation.
In fact, they were so clear on this point that they at once agreed to go out and start emphasising it in public. Several gave statements noting that there was pressure from some quarters for Ireland to be left behind but adding that the people of Ireland should not be frightened or feel disrespected because they were sure it would not come to this. And so, just to offer further reassurance, they would put up posters in Ireland making clear that the Irish had better vote Yes PDQ or get their miserable Fenian butts out of the EU.
But maybe even this is not enough, said one. Perhaps we ought to get over to Ireland and give TV interviews stressing that under no circumstances will there be any miserable Fenian butt-kicking.
While they were there, they would take the chance to add that so deep was their respect for the Irish No that Ireland could have as long as it liked to change its mind. Across the continent European leaders insisted there would be no pressure. “If the deadline slips by a few months, so be it,” said one, adding that to take any other view would be to “disrespect the Irish No”.
But surely, they argued, the best way to demonstrate our respect to the Irish people is to show how we can move Europe forward. We need to change the agenda, said another.
“The people have spoken,” they said. And the message was that they wanted to get away from all this talk of treaties and constitutions and referendums that had caused the Irish reaction that had to be respected.
“We have to move the agenda on,” they said. We need to stop bothering the people of the EU with these referendums they do not understand.
When you analyse this, they said, what the Irish – who had to be respected – were telling them was that this was far too complex a matter and they want us to drive this through without bothering them. Once you put it that way it was clear their views had to be respected.
More importantly they had to heed the message that they were being told – to stop fussing about internal stuff and start talking about things that really mattered to the people, like jobs and the economy. That meant they needed to drive through those changes as fast as possible so they could get on to the important matters.
So they got to work at once, working out how to secure most of the rejected changes without bothering the Irish again – out of respect for their democratically expressed wishes. After all, they noted, deep down the Irish are good Europeans. They know a convoy cannot move at the pace of its slowest member – unless, of course, that slowest member is France.”