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June 10, 2008

Cabinet ministers: put your money where your mouth is on the housing market

Ministers have been maintaining for ages that the housing market is not at the start of a painful crash. Even Caroline Flint, housing minister - who was photographed with a briefing note suggesting price falls of 10 per cent this year - has maintained that long-term demand remains strong.  The prime minister, meanwhile, is pushing ahead with numerous ways to ensconce new first-time buyers on the wavering housing ladder.

Matthew Oakeshott, Lib Dem Treasury spokesman, has a suggestion for senior ministers.

Lord Oakeshott points out that the futures market is now pricing in a 13.5 per cent fall in the Halifax house price index over the coming year, 21.5 per cent over three years and not recovering to previous highs until 2018.

He suggests that if ministers are as confident as they sound - that falls will be more modest - they should put their money on this outcome.

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