Daily Archives: July 31, 2008

Jim Pickard

I had a chat with Denis MacShane the other day. He argues that Gordon Brown’s unpopularity is not out of the ordinary right now.

The Blairite former Europe minister points out a number of countries whose leaders are in the doldrums: All thanks to the economic downturn and rising commodity costs.

Sarkozy (France), currently at about 3o per cent in the polls; the Swedish PM, at 20 per cent; Austria, where the government has just collapsed, Merkel (Germany), “very very unpopular”, the Japanese government, “at the point of meltdown”. And then there’s George W. Bush, of course (pictured below).

I’m no foreign affairs expert but this analysis seems reasonably valid. It’s an interesting point to bear in mind.

“If Obama is as popular after an election as he is now I will pay you my entire ACA (additional cost allowance),” says Macshane. 

Jim Pickard

One Labour source has just pointed out the problem with the so-called “dream ticket” of David Miliband with Alan Johnson as a running mate – in the event (still not certain) of a leadership contest.

The job of deputy leader woult not be up for grabs. So even if Miliband secured Johnson’s backing, what could he promise him?

The rumour is that it could be the job of deputy prime minister. How that would square with Harriet Harman remaining deputy leader of the party is very far from clear.

Jim Pickard

I spoke to one of Miliband’s friends yesterday and he said it would be ludicrous to write that he was “helping the campaign”.

So does that mean that there is a leadership campaign? Or was it a slip of the tongue? 

Here is a picture of the foreign secretary as a student at Oxford – with a different friend.

Jim Pickard

The Treasurers’ report* in Labour’s annual accounts says there has been a “dramatic improvement” in Labour’s pension fund. It has swung from a £6.3m liability in 2005 to a surplus of £1.9m at the end of last year.

Sounds good, for sure. But much of the difference is down to the way in which actuaries use a discount rate for the scheme’s liabilities. In 2005 the rate was 4.7 per cent, in 2007 it was 5.8 per cent.

In simple terms this change means that future liabilities are presumed to be smaller (they have shrunk in the accounts from £42.9m to £38.1m).

That simple fact alone explains £4.8m of the good news.

Nothing fishy in this, I hasten to add. I spoke to a pensions expert yesterday who said that discount rates in general have risen in the last two years. But the point is that the situation has been improved by what is simply an ”actuarial gain”.

Another point to make is that the scheme has £23m of its £40m of assets in the stock market…..which has nosedived since Christmas. For that reason alone, the current state of play in the pension fund – if it was marked to market – is probably not so rosy.

 * Incidentally guys (Treasurers Jack Dromey and Chris Lennie), you signed it on 27 June 2008, not “2007″. I’m told this is a ‘typo’.

Westminster blog

on the UK political scene

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Jim Pickard and Kiran Stacey, FT Westminster correspondents, share the latest news and analysis on the UK's political scene.

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All posts are published in UK time.

Contact the Westminster blog team: Jim Pickard, Kiran Stacey, Nicholas Timmins, Elizabeth Rigby and Helen Warrell.

The illustrations of Jim and Kiran are by Nick Hardcastle.

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The authors

Jim Pickard joined the lobby team in January 2008. He has been at the Financial Times since 1999 as a regional correspondent, assistant UK news editor and property correspondent.

Kiran Stacey is an FT political correspondent, having joined the lobby in 2011. He started at the FT as a graduate trainee in 2008, working on desks including UK companies and US equity markets before taking over the FT's Energy Source blog.

Contributors

Elizabeth Rigby, the FT's chief political correspondent, joined the lobby team in September 2010. Elizabeth has worked at the FT for more than a decade and was most recently its consumer industries editor.

Helen Warrell is the FT's UK reporter, covering home affairs, crime and policing. She joined the FT in 2008 and has spent time as a reporter in the Brussels bureau and more recently, editing the paper's Asia coverage on the world news desk.

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