This is such a hard one to call. Even the SNP activists can’t really believe the idea that they will overturn a 13,500 Labour majority on July 24. But they think they will make a massive dent in it - at the very least.

One big issue is the lack of Labour bodies on the ground.

Standing at a windswept kilt factory in a business park - where Margaret Curran was about to make a typically whirlwind appearance - I chatted to a party press officer. I asked if it was true that there weren’t enough activists.

His reply was unintentionally ironic. He’d been down at the recent Crewe by-election* and there were just as many people canvassing up here, he insisted.

Oh dear.

* Lost to the Conservatives with a 17.5 per cent swing

July 11, 2008 4:23pm in UK politics | Comment