David Davis believes public opinion has swung behind him. Maybe, maybe not. Certainly, one opinion poll suggests he now has public sympathy over what he sees as an erosion of human rights. Davis told me on Wednesday that another poll – which has been withheld – gives a similar picture.
But what does the by-election prove?
Perhaps nothing.
1] Haltemprice is only one of 646 constituencies in the UK.
Imagine a different subject: fox-hunting. A by-election on this single issue would give you a totally different reaction if you were in a] Exmoor or b] Islington. It would not be a proxy for a national referendum. Neither was this poll of little over 20,000 folk.
2] No one else was up in Hull giving the counter-argument with both barrels. The government chose instead to pretend to ignore this surreal event.
3] Two-thirds of voters in the constituency didn’t vote. We still don’t know what they think.
4] We still don’t know if those who DID vote did so because they disagreed with the terror bill. Many of them – I was up there on Wednesday chatting to the locals – simply like Davis because they believe he is a good chap.
5] In fact, I spoke to several who said they would vote for him DESPITE his views on 42 days.
Jim Pickard
Kiran Stacey
