Monthly Archives: October 2008

For those of us without a PhD in finance, the £200bn “special liquidity scheme” is difficult to comprehend. But taxpayers should pay attention.

The Bank of England is allowing hard-pressed banks to take the assets they are unable to sell in the market and swap them for crisp, clean Treasury bills.

The big question is: how is the Bank valuing the collateral if no one in the market is willing to put a price on it?

The Bank argues the exposure to the taxpayer is limited. First, they only accept AAA rated securities. Second, unlike the US plan to buy up bad assets, the Bank scheme leaves the private banks responsible for losses.

But these points are worryingly similar to the arguments private banks were using ahead of the crash. After everything we have discovered about rating agencies, why is the Bank ready to accept a security simply because it is marked AAA? Have they been listening to Gordon Brown’s criticisms of how the ratings agencies operated?

And if there are any losses, how will this be recouped from the private banks? Under the scheme the Bank can swap assets out of the programme when they deteriorate. But how will the Bank officials judge when they have deteriorated? And how will they price an asset that no one is willing to buy?

This valuation is critical because under the scheme’s repurchase agreement, if an asset falls in value the Bank either has to ask the private bank for more money or more collateral. Again, who will determine how much? And will the bank be in a position to pay?

These are big decisions. The Bank officials are judging structured finance products that fooled specialists, analysts, investors and some of the most highly paid bankers in the world.

Up to now, the Bank collateral managers have mainly dealt with simple government bonds. According to Paul J Davies’ excellent piece on this subject, they have added “a couple of extra staff” to the team running the £200bn scheme. Let’s hope they are good.

bankcounters.JPG

Will Westminter follow the lead of the US congressman who has forced nine big US banks to declare the size of bonuses awarded to all their staff?

As he issued the order, the tenacious Henry Waxman questioned “the appropriateness of depleting the capital that taxpayers just injected into the banks through the payment of billions of dollars in bonuses, especially after one of the financial industry’s worst years on record”.

His point would apply to the UK, too.

MPs lack the power to demand such detailed information from the banks. (Waxman has given them a couple of weeks to publish the bonuses of the top ten earners and indeed anyone who makes more than $500,000 a year.) And, so far, British politicians have focused on the wage packets of directors, rather than other senior staff.

But Waxman’s approach is a sign of where political debate may be heading in Britain once the recession starts to bite and people take a closer interest in the workings of their part-nationalised banks.

Just to add some colour, here’s a clip of Waxman asking Dick Fuld, the former chief executive of Lehman Brothers, whether his $480m earnings were “fair”.

[youtube]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BKsixRnJwj4[/youtube]

Here are George Osborne’s views — stated less than two weeks ago — on irresponsible politicians (i.e. Vince Cable) who call on the Bank of England to slash interest rates:

I do not think that it is particular sensible either for politicians speaking from the frontbench to call on the Bank to cut or increase interest rates. Indeed, I make it a practice not to comment on them.

Here’s an extract from George Osborne’s article in today’s Telegraph:

the government should do nothing that makes it more difficult for the Bank of England to cut interest rates. It must be for the independent MPC to make its judgment, but it is a statement of fact that, with interest rates still at 4.5 per cent, there is plenty of scope to stimulate demand with lower rates.

 UPDATE:

There is more. This is what Osborne had to say on the BBC World at One a couple of days ago.

Martha Kearney:        And there are also pressures for immediate interest rate cuts which in themselves won’t help sterling but do you think there is a case for bringing forward an announcement on that?

George Osborne:        Well I’ve always taken the view that either the chancellor of the exchequer or the person who wants to be the chancellor of the exchequer shouldn’t try and speculate on interest rate movements. I mean that is a very important principle to my mind of an independent central bank. Of course, you know, everyone in the country wants to see interest rates come down but that has got to be a, the timing of that and the approach that the Bank of England takes to interest rates must be something left to an independent Monetary Policy Committee.

Gordon Brown’s mantra of “global solutions to global problems” is rarely followed by details of the institutional reform he envisages. He prefers to discuss why the reforms are needed, rather than highlight the power broking required to set them up.

On Monday, he made an exception. During a Q&A session he said he wanted the International Monetary Fund to be “more like an independent central bank rather than a political committee”. It is a revealing quote.

What would this reform entail? At present, power over the fund’s governing board is largely determined on a “votes for cash” basis. The balance still reflects the world as it was in 1944, with Western Europe and the US dominant. And the IMF’s £200bn resources now appears relatively small in comparison to global capital flows. (Alan Beattie has written an elegant review of all this.)

To become more like an “independent central bank”, the Brown IMF would need more money and more independence. But why would any country willing to fill the IMF coffers want to give up influence over how the money is spent?

Some countries are already worried that China and Russia will use the IMF’s weakness to offer bilateral loans to struggling states. Why would China give up the foreign policy power that comes from such a bilateral loan in favour of pledging its reserves to an “independent” IMF?

Then, of course, there is the question of who the IMF is accountable to if it is no longer a political committee.  Is it wise to give so much money to a single, democratically unaccountable institution?

As Ken Rogoff, the former IMF chief economist, tells Alan Beattie: “The IMF is a necessary part of fixing problems in emerging markets, as it has the expertise that almost no one else does. But it doesn’t, and probably shouldn’t, have the resources to do it alone.”

The story of the weekend was surely the Mail on Sunday exclusive on Britain disposing of a camel saddle presented to Tony Blair by Muammer Gaddafi of Libya. The gesture of solidarity was apparently sold at auction for the princely sum of £20.

This revelation comes days after Gordon Brown withdrew an invitation for Mr Gaddafi to attend the London oil summit, which has been downgraded to ministerial level.

The conference would have given Mr Gaddafi, who travels with a bevy of female bodyguards and prefers to stay in a bedoin tent, the opportunity to make his first official visit to London after decades of being ostracised by the international community.

Withdrawing the invite has saved some poor protocol official in London from finding a place to pitch the Libyan leader’s tent (the picture below shows the solution French officials came up with). And Mr Gaddafi is likely to understand that heads of state probably no longer need to gather to discuss the rocketing oil price.

But will the newly improved relations between London and Tripoli survive the camel saddle sleight?

gaddafitent.jpg

For those wanting to know more about Oleg Deripaska’s ailing metals empire, Catherine Belton’s weekend piece is indispensable. One observer likens the Russian oligarch’s business to a house of cards.

A worrying aspect for UK taxpayers is who he owes money to. Mr Deripaska is presently scrambling to repay Royal Bank of Scotland, a UK bank that is set to be part-nationalised. In this small and indirect way, Britain is exposed to the Russian oligarch’s financial fortunes.

RBS is part of a group of banks that lent $4.5bn to Mr Deripaska to help him build a 25 per cent stake in Norilsk, the world’s biggest nickel miner. Strictly, he has until Friday to refinance the loan. The banks are expected to extend the deadline as they wait for the Kremlin to bailout Mr Deripaska.

But if no fresh funding materialises, the banks will find themselves owning a stake in a Russia’s biggest nickel producer — an asset some in the Kremlin have prized. As Vince Cable, Liberal Democrat deputy leader, said:

“It is fascinating and alarming to see the prospect looming of the semi-nationalised RBS bank finding itself owning part of a major and highly sensitive Russian mining company by accident. I trust that the government is already thinking through the strategic as well as the financial implications of this development.”

Jim Pickard

The recent news that David Cameron has hired a PR firm (“Pretty Little Head”) to reach out to women voters brings back memories of the mid-1990s for some.

George Parker, now FT political editor, wrote a story suggesting that Tony Blair had changed his hair style to appeal to women voters. Blair had “flattened his bouffant” after a panel of females said they didn’t like it.

Alastair Campbell was furious at the scoop. “We put together a press release saying the FT had gone mad,” he recalls in his diary. Labour called it a black day in the history of FT journalism

Campbell was annoyed because, he said, it was “one of those irritating stories with the power to connect and damage”. Blair, out on a hospital visit, was “fuming”. “All anyone will want to ask me about is my bloody hair,” he told Campbell.

The FT has obtained the full transcript of Alistair Darling’s conversation with Iceland’s finance minister. David Ibison wrote a piece about some of it today and we’re writing more about it tomorrow. But I wanted to share the most important exchange with you first. Enjoy.

Árni M Mathiesen: Hello

Alistair Darling: Hello

ÁMM: This is Arni Mathiesen, Minister of Finance.

AD: Hello, we met a few months ago, weeks ago.

ÁMM: No, we actually never met. You met the Minister of Trade.

AD: Alright, sorry.

ÁMM: No problem.

lembit1.JPGWhich politician “on first name terms with the nation” is “swallowing hard” for his party, working “right at the coalface” and offering a “colourful alternative” to the “ordinary members” selecting the next Liberal Democrat president?

Why, Lembit Opik of course.

In a characteristically understated pitch to LibDem activists, Mr Opik says he has a “national profile” as “one of three politicians from any party who’s on first name terms with the nation!” (Why so modest Lembit? We can’t think of the other two.)

Here is the full “on first name terms with the nation” section of his email, which was sent to members earlier this week.

Active in politics for over 25 years, I’ve learned that while the hardest, most painful lessons can come from mistakes – no great achievement comes without risk. I know that it’s now time for me to swallow hard, step up to the platform – to proclaim what we value as Liberal Democrats and to breathe new life into British politics. As President I believe I can do this: I’ve got a national profile – I’m one of three politicians from any Party who’s on “first name terms” with the nation! This gives me a route to reach out and share our political narrative with people who aren’t all that interested in politics – but who could vote for us.

He goes on to explain what the party should expect if he’s elected president, against the wishes of almost all of Mr Opik’s parliamentary colleagues.

What’s the risk you take in electing me? PRESSURE! I’ll put all Lib Dems under pressure – to build the membership, to streamline our rather cumbersome internal structures, to spread the message of who we are and what we stand for – to be brave: so we can promote our policies in bright unmistakeable primary colours. And I will personally participate in telling our good news story: I’ll come and help you spread our message clearly and simply in ways which can’t be misunderstood. I’ll make us the colourful alternative to the dull “same as/same old” Parties.

Just in case anyone was still unconvinced, Mr Opik Lembit explains his unique approach to handling a hung parliament.

In 1994, at the request of the Federal Executive, I created the system to make a Party wide decision in a hung parliament situation. I’ve experience of going through a national coalition process a number of times – the only candidate to have done so. In Wales, during the coalition talks, I saw the need to focus on a “programme for Government,” and not on personal prejudices about the other Parties. I think we were wrong to walk away from the chance for power, because this contradicts our commitment to a fair votes system which is almost always going to deliver no overall majority.

It would be tragic if we were to miss the opportunity to govern in the UK on the basis of fear or emotion. Whatever the Party decides in that situation, we need to do it rationally, and in line with our goals, values and principles. I’ll take no part in the policy aspects of dialogue about coalition because it’s absolutely the Leader’s role to do that. But I WILL be a President who’ll facilitate dialogue. And I know I can manage that process – because I designed it!

There is more. While his colleagues in Westminster have a love of backstabbing and regicide, Lembit is 150 per cent loyal, without question, to anyone who may be popular with the grassroots. This bit of the email included a picture of Charles Kennedy and Lembit in happier times.

Your support combined with my passionate and loyal commitment will transform this Party. I backed Charles Kennedy throughout the time he was under pressure to resign, and stood up for Ming Campbell when he was in the same situation. And I’ll stand up for this Party with that same integrity and loyalty.

Enough already. Good luck Lembit.

tillman.jpgAll the evidence suggests that allowing corporate donors does nothing for transparency or the simplicity of the political finance system.

Peter Riddell’s piece neatly exposes the logical contortions in electoral law. Why should a foreigner banned from donating be permitted to give as much as they like via their wholly-owned EU based company, as long as it does business in the UK?

But one point he doesn’t raise is why companies are permitted to donate at all.

The US realised this was a bad idea a long time ago and banned direct corporate donations. The 1907 Tillman Act — named after “Pitchfork Ben” Tillman, a vile racist Senator who made his name rampaging through the South attacking blacks and Republicans with his “Red Shirt” band of paramilitary terrorists — was the first attempt by Congress to clean up politics.

Tillman’s motive — stopping funding to civil rights politicians — was pretty disgraceful. But the means he sought was supported by the likes of Theodore Roosevelt, who were more interested in tackling dirty politics.

The big question is what the purpose is in giving as a company? Strictly the decision should be passed through the board. But how many companies shareholders are united in their view of politics, let alone corporate boards? A politically united company is more than likely to be owned by one person. If the decision is down to an individual, what is the point of giving through a company?

Ideally the system would allow for public spirited companies to give to all three parties and show their support for the system. But are there any examples of that? A much more prevalent practice has been individuals sanctioning their companies to donate rather than use their own name. You have to wonder why.

Banning corporate donations would clear up a lot of the controversy about foreign-donors, tax-status and disguised donations.  Why isn’t it being done? Well, the Tillman Act banned companies and unions from giving. Now that would be controversial.

A worthy code to limit the number of home repossession cases reaching court was issued on Wednesday. It won praise from all sides — lenders, ministers, housing charities, opposition politicians. That alone tells you something is not quite right.The “pre-action protocol” includes all the right things to make repossession a “last resort”. But it does not change the rights of borrowers or lenders. Rather it offers a code for lenders to follow if they want to be more lenient than required by law.

So it says a lender “could” offer to extend the term of a mortgage from, say, 25 to 35 years. But if the lender decides this is a silly idea that will lose him money, a judge lacks the power to make him do it when it comes to court. Cash strapped homeowners have no more legal protection today than they did last week. No wonder lenders are happy.

Gordon Brown wants repossessions to be a “last resort”. This code will certainly help to delay or avert some repossessions. But as Robert Jordan, the judge who led the drafting process, said: “the protocol did not change the courts’ limited powers to deal with these cases.”

Which begs the question: why is the government so reluctant to change the law?

repos1.JPG

Jim Pickard

In March 2007 I was covering business rather than politics. One balmy evening that month I boarded a huge luxury yacht in Cannes as the guest of a real estate billionaire (well, he was at the time).

Most of the guests were Arab investors, middle-aged British businessmen or good-time girls in their early 20s.

One, however, was a distinguished Labour MP (not Mandelson) who was conspicuously getting into the swing of things. At the time I wondered what constituency business had brought him there.

I won’t name him out of respect to my host and his generosity.

So why bother mentioning it? Well, the memory came to mind as I read Alice Miles’ column in today’s Times suggesting that Labour MPs “feel uncomfortable” mingling with the super-rich.

“Mandelson is an aberration within Labour, as was Tony Blair. Labour people do not, on the whole, hobnob with the very rich,” she wrote.

Just thought I’d mention it.

Westminster blog

on the UK political scene

About this blog Blog guide
Jim Pickard and Kiran Stacey, FT Westminster correspondents, share the latest news and analysis on the UK's political scene.

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Contact the Westminster blog team: Jim Pickard, Kiran Stacey, Nicholas Timmins, Elizabeth Rigby and Helen Warrell.

The illustrations of Jim and Kiran are by Nick Hardcastle.

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The authors

Jim Pickard joined the lobby team in January 2008. He has been at the Financial Times since 1999 as a regional correspondent, assistant UK news editor and property correspondent.

Kiran Stacey is an FT political correspondent, having joined the lobby in 2011. He started at the FT as a graduate trainee in 2008, working on desks including UK companies and US equity markets before taking over the FT's Energy Source blog.

Contributors

Elizabeth Rigby, the FT's chief political correspondent, joined the lobby team in September 2010. Elizabeth has worked at the FT for more than a decade and was most recently its consumer industries editor.

Helen Warrell is the FT's UK reporter, covering home affairs, crime and policing. She joined the FT in 2008 and has spent time as a reporter in the Brussels bureau and more recently, editing the paper's Asia coverage on the world news desk.

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