The Council of Mortgage Lenders has just distanced itself from the 75k figure which has rapidly taken hold in the media. It is a totemic number, as it is almost exactly the peak of the last recession: in 1991.

It’s not an official estimate though, contrary to numerous reports. The CML is predicting 45,000 repossessions this year. As for next year, it tells me: “It is not our forecast, it is very unlikely to be our forecast, we are putting out the new figure next week.”

The new number is still likely to be much higher than 45,000 though. And - in Robert Peston’s defence - the CML may be toning down the estimate in the light of the government’s new package to tackle repos.

For more on this argument it’s worth reading Pesto himself on this link.

December 4, 2008 5:21pm in Alistair Darling, Bank of England, Banks, Housing, UK politics | Comment