The Council of Mortgage Lenders firmly denied reports from the BBC a fortnight ago that its 2009 forecast for repossessions would be 75,000. The CML’s spokeswoman said on the record that this was the wrong figure and the real number was likely to be significantly lower. This is what we said at the time.

Today, lo and behold, the CML has put out its forecast. It is of course 75k. Maybe we shouldn’t expect anything different from the group - which spectacularly failed to spot the crash coming.

The other striking prediction today involves the number of households in arrears increasing at an even more rapid rate:

“By the end of 2008 the CML expects 210,000 households to be more than three months in arrears, and this number is expected to increase to 500,000 by the end of 2009.”

December 18, 2008 3:25pm in Alistair Darling, Bank of England, Banks, Housing | Comment