Monthly Archives: April 2009

Jim Pickard

There was some surprise in the Tory ranks after Gordon Brown pledged in PMQs that – as part of MP expenses reform – there would be changes to “grace and favour homes”. This was a reference to his proposal that ministers with free London homes would no longer get the second home allowance.

Eagle-eyed Tory MPs spotted the fact that today’s order sheet had no reference to grace and favour homes. It turns out that this is because the ban can be easily introduced through changes to the ministerial code of conduct.

But this probably won’t apply to one political grandee who lives for free on the grounds of Parliament. That’s right. Michael Martin, the speaker, is likely to be excluded – because he is not a minister.

The Lib Dems tried to put forward an amendment today which would have embraced all “honourable members” – presumably including the speaker. The clause, from David Heath, proposed that “no hon member occupying accomodation provided at public expense shall be deemed to have a need to incur additional costs in order to undertake their parliamentary duties“. The speaker has rejected the amendment.

UPDATE

The government has crumbled in the face of the most important amendment – from Sir George Young – which will defer reform until the summer; after Sir Christopher Kelly’s committee has reported. The prime minister may have only narrowly averted a second defeat in two days. Here is the story.

This appears to be an embarrassing retreat, given that earlier in the week officials were describing the amendment’s authors “the forces of reaction”.

FURTHER UPDATE

Novelist Iain Pears has some thoughts here on how to align MPs pay with performance.

Jim Pickard

It wasn’t supposed to turn out like this. The Liberal Democrats never win Commons votes. Opposition day motions always fail. Those are the Parliamentary conventions*.

But Gordon Brown’s government was defeated by 267 to 246 votes this afternoon over the right of ageing Gurkhas to stay in the UK.

Not only does the result erode Mr Brown’s authority even further. It also leaves Labour on the wrong side of the debate – given the esteem in which Gurkhas are held in this country. Apparently the MoD has been touting the figure of £1.4bn a year as the possible cost of accommodating all Gurkhas and their families (100,000 in total).

Martin Salter, the Labour MP who has led the fight for the soldiers, says this is based on all of them ending up on the dole and claiming housing benefit. That makes it “nonsense”, he says.

The government is meanwhile claiming that the Tories have erroneously promised to give asylum to any former British Army soldier from anywhere in the world. In practice I’m not sure that David Cameron has done so – despite saying he would introduce a new immigration category for former military personnel.

Labour whips must be feeling so, so sore right now. Not least because there is another high-wire vote tomorrow over MPs expenses, which could also go the wrong way for Mr Brown and his half-baked proposals.

The biggest embarrassment is that today’s vote could have been avoided. The Tories pulled out the stops to make sure most of their MPs were there; including front-benchers. Labour apparently did not. There may also have been a tactical trap which lured Labour into thinking that the Tories and Lib Dems would not vote together on the same amendment.

Furthermore, the compromise from Jacqui Smith, home secretary, was not sent out until after 3pm, at which point many Labour MPs were far from their computers and did not see it. That meant 28 voting against the government and 70-ish abstaining. The result: a major setback for Brown.

UPDATE

Graham Stringer, a Labour backbencher, tells me he voted with the government because Smith answered “85 to 90 per cent” of his concerns. The email simply came too late to stop the rebellion’s momentum. “If it had come 48 hours earlier, this wouldn’t have happened ,” he says.

*

For context, this is only the sixth defeat of New Labour:

The others were:

- two votes on a terrorism bill in November 2005 (over detention of terror suspects for 90 days and 28 days respectively)

- two defeats over a religious hatred bill in 2006

- a vote on extradition (over the NatWest Three)

The quality is often poor, the number of viewers is usually low, but there can be no doubt that some of Gordon Brown’s best moments are captured on YouTube. We’ve compiled a top ten here, based on the strict criteria that they are funny or cringeworthy, and found on YouTube. They are in no particular order. (We spared you the nose picking incident.) Bagehot has a thoughtful take on what this all means.

1. Brown saves the world

2. “I am sorry about what happened. I take full responsibility…that’s why the person who was responsible went immediately.”

3. Calling off the election

4. Spare no expense

5. Brown, Obama and the policeman

6. Gordon’s Alive

7. Mobile interruption

8. The prime minister “got lost” at state banquet

9. The real star of American Idol

10. A lonely moment signing the Lisbon Treaty

Jim Pickard

Sir Peter Viggers, the veteran Tory MP, was quoted yesterday saying: “As only one in seven cars are made in the UK, the government is effectively spending £7,000 for each new UK car sale.”

The Treasury select committee was also told  – by government officials – that the scheme would fund the purchase of 300,000 new cars. But two-thirds of these purchases would have taken place anyway.

To my mind that looks like a subsidy equal to £21,000 per UK-built new car. Was there no cheaper way of helping the ailing motor manufacturers?

Whatever is left of Gordon Brown’s attempt to reform MPs’ expenses is about to be dealt a heavy blow.

The powerful standards and privileges committee, which represents four parties, will table an amendment on Thursday calling on Gordon Brown to allow an independent review of expenses to conclude before passing reforms.

An intervention from as important a committee as this (it basically looks at complaints over breaches of rules) is almost certain to win wide support in the Commons. It is highly likely that Gordon Brown will be forced to withdraw the face saving compromise he cooked up last night. The great and the good of the Commons have spoken. It will be a humiliating decision, but the prime minister has little other choice.

The committee’s decision was unanimous (the Labour MPs on the Chris Mullin, Andrew Whitehead, Kevin Baron and Paddy Tipping). The amendment calls for Sir Christopher Kelly to complete his review of members allowances “without being pre-empted by decisions of the House of Commons”.

“The members of the committee are unanimously of the view that only changes arising from an independent, external review of the system of members allowances will command public support.”

UPDATE

The vote is going ahead, according to Downing Street.

It also looks like the Tory frontbench will be backing part of the Brown reform package, while attempting to amend the suggestion that allowances should be linked to attendance. Sir George Young’s amendment will not win their support, presumably because they would not want to be delaying reforms in order to wait for Sir Christopher Kelly’s conclusions.

The masses of disgruntled backbenchers may swing behing Sir George’s amendment, but it’s unclear whether this will be enough to block the Brown reforms.

With the European elections fast approaching, eurosceptics will again be claiming that nothing good  comes out of Brussels. I’ve been leaked a document that conclusively proves them wrong. This proposed apple-pie-directive, which has been doing the diplomatic rounds, is quite special.

Some of it will mean nothing to those of you who are not immersed in the comfortingly odd habits of Brussels. But some of the insights are hilarious. My hat goes off to the Eurocrat who wrote it.

I particularly enjoyed these points:

  1. FR has entered a study reserve. It is reflecting on whether the effect of combining the two distinct elements in the Commission’s proposal could be to “mélanger les pommes et les poires”.

  1. Two delegations (EL, CY) also maintain a linguistic reserve. They insist that the Greek language version of the new Programme should refer to “Apple π”.

We eagerly await the motherhood directive.

Jim Pickard

The new 50p top rate of income tax is hugely significant.

Patrick Stevens, tax partner at Ernst & Young, tells me that it’s the highest band for 20 years in the UK.

Margaret Thatcher abolished the 60 per cent rate in 1987/88 and replaced it with the 40 per cent rate in 1988/89.

This is a hell of a long time ago. Incidentally, Bobby McFerrin was in the charts back then with “Don’t Worry Be Happy”. And Yazz with “The Only Way is Up“. Like I say: happy days. Kylie Minogue was also in the charts; thus the gratuitous photograph.

Meanwhile Stevens points out: “The increase in top rate of tax to 50 per cent moves the UK up from 19th to 7th in the table of highest marginal income tax rates amongst OECD countries. This contrasts strongly with recent trends across the OECD countries which have seen marginal tax rates decreasing.”

Jim Pickard

It is a gift for the Tories. And the timing is bizarre.

The International Monetary Fund has made its global economic predictions and the results aren’t too pretty for the UK.

For 2009, it expects a fall in GDP or 4.1 per cent (compared to 3.5 per cent for Darling). And for 2010 the IMF reckons our economy will contract by 0.4 per cent; a much more pessimistic outlook than Darling’s +1.25 per cent.

The Tories reckon that these figures, if true, would represent a further £23bn of borrowing over the period.

Two thoughts on the politics of the 50 per cent tax rate.

1) Alistair Darling has given the Tories a ticket out of tax raising jail

The move on the top rate is rightly seen as a political trap for the Tories. (George Osborne hasn’t taken the bait; he has said he has no plans to reverse it.) But the bigger headache for the Tory leadership was always the fact that they would have to pass the bill to implement the higher rate, if they win the next election. This was already upsetting the right-wing grassroots. Darling has now spared them from having to do the tax-raising dirty work.

2) Labour have broken a manifesto commitment

It was always a dubious argument, but when Darling proposed a 45p rate back in November, the implementation was delayed so that Labour could claim it was sticking to its manifesto commitment not to raise the top rate of tax.

Now the measure will be in force by April, meaning Labour will have broken a core manifesto pledge. The advantage? The Treasury will pick up one month of extra tax income before a May 2010 election, raising about £100,000.

Was it worth it?

There is a grim chart on page p36 of the Budget showing national debt “on a declining path”.

Unfortunately it only goes up to 2020, so it is impossible to see exactly when the Treasury expect the debt to return to 40 per cent of national income. I’ve made my own clumsy attempt (see below) which sheds little light on the matter, other than to show that it will take a very long time indeed.

Garry Gibbon, the C4 News political editor, reckons it will take until 2028. But my expert forecasting puts it a bit later. We could be waiting till 2035 or even longer. There is, of course, the question over whether it matters at all. “It was an arbitrary number anyway,” said one unimpressed Whitehall official.

Jim Pickard

It was only a small promise but gives some insight into how the government works.

Darling promised £50m on housing for the armed forces, with a grandiose pledge:

I have one further announcement to make about housing for a particular group. The whole country is united in admiration for the courage and professionalism of our Armed Forces,” he said. “I want to ensure this admiration is reflected in the quality of their accomodation.”

The detailed figures in the Budget red book show that the Treasury expects to spend an extra £50m on armed forces accomodation in 2009-10. But in the subsequent year, it will claw back £25m from this budget.

In other words, the real figure is £50m minus £25m……or just £25m.

The Budget scorecard (see p10) is far from clear in outlining the full extent of the raid on high earners. But the footnotes give a rough guide to how much extra the exchequer will be collection from people earning more than £100,000.

In 2012/13 the Treasury expects to be collecting about £7bn a year. Most of that is from people earning more than £150,000. About £1.5bn comes from the removal of the personal allowance, £2.4bn from the new 50 per cent rate, and £3.1bn from cutting tax relief for pensions contributions.

Sounds a lot of money to be grabbing from a group of people who have proved rather shrewd in arranging their tax affairs.

How much will this hit high earners? According to the Treasury, those earning £110,000 a year should expect to pay about £2,000 more in tax; those earning £150,000 pay about £2,600 more; those earning £200,000 pay £7,600; and those FT readers bringing home more than £500,000 will have to pay £37,600 a year more.

Westminster blog

on the UK political scene

About this blog Blog guide
Jim Pickard and Kiran Stacey, FT Westminster correspondents, share the latest news and analysis on the UK's political scene.

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All posts are published in UK time.

Contact the Westminster blog team: Jim Pickard, Kiran Stacey, Nicholas Timmins, Elizabeth Rigby and Helen Warrell.

The illustrations of Jim and Kiran are by Nick Hardcastle.

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The authors

Jim Pickard joined the lobby team in January 2008. He has been at the Financial Times since 1999 as a regional correspondent, assistant UK news editor and property correspondent.

Kiran Stacey is an FT political correspondent, having joined the lobby in 2011. He started at the FT as a graduate trainee in 2008, working on desks including UK companies and US equity markets before taking over the FT's Energy Source blog.

Contributors

Elizabeth Rigby, the FT's chief political correspondent, joined the lobby team in September 2010. Elizabeth has worked at the FT for more than a decade and was most recently its consumer industries editor.

Helen Warrell is the FT's UK reporter, covering home affairs, crime and policing. She joined the FT in 2008 and has spent time as a reporter in the Brussels bureau and more recently, editing the paper's Asia coverage on the world news desk.

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