Monthly Archives: June 2009

Jim Pickard

We are about to see the full details of Labour’s new policy of giving priority on council housing waiting lists to local residents.

This is an obvious dog whistle to working class voters who might otherwise vote BNP.

Here is a reminder of what happened to Margaret Hodge when she suggested something very similar two years ago. She was attacked by senior Labour figures including Alan Johnson, Peter Hain, Jon Cruddas and Ken Livingstone.

Here’s a recap of what she suggested. A need for social housing policy to take account of length of residence, citizenship and national insurance contributions.

This was Livingstone’s riposte: “Margaret Hodge’s suggestion that housing allocation should be based not on need but factors like length of residence would be catastrophic for community relations.”

Johnson accused Hodge of “using the language of the BNP.”

And now it’s going to be government policy.

UPDATE

Here is the page in the BNP’s manifesto which includes: “Make length of residency in an area the key criterion for council house allocation.”

Jim Pickard

You might have missed an excellent article this morning by my colleague Michael Peel.

He says lawyers are warning that the new threat of up to a year in jail for errant MPs guilty of expense scams is actually less severe than the existing penalty.

Transparency International points out that the current maximum jail time for fraud is 10 years – against the “up to a year” for MPs.

A former SFP prosecutor, Claire Shaw, who is a lawyer at Pinsent Masons, said: “They shouldn’t be passing a special act for MPs which has a tenth of the penalty the wider public face.”

Jim Pickard

Brown is on the wrong side of the spending argument, says new opinion poll

Jeremy Hunt demands greater disclosure of BBC expenses

Now the emergency has passed, policymakers look set on going their own ways: Philip Stephens

A slap in the face for Mervyn King? Darling to strengthen the role of the FSA

Mortgage rates are on the rise – another reason to be wary of “green shoots” talk?

Bercow tells private equity types he is relieved to have quit the Tories (effectively), according to Bloomberg

Jim Pickard

Gordon Brown’s set-piece announcement tomorrow morning is the environment. The plan is for the PM to lay out the path to the Copenhagen climate talks later this year.

Apparently he wants to go further than the European council which held some inconclusive talks earlier this month. The EU’s 27 nations discussed a E100bn climate finance package (paying developing countries to stop polluting) but will not make any decision until the autumn.

The suspicion is that Brown would like to steal their thunder by urging the promise of a “fair share for the EU”.

He may also come up with a big unilateral number for the UK alone. My colleague Fiona Harvey, our environment correspondent, has heard the figure of £1.5bn.

As usual, it might take us a while tomorrow to work out how much of this is genuinely new money. I’m told the Treasury has been resistant to the idea of topping up funding beyond existing Difid commitments.

Brown is also likely to talk about global carbon markets (still over a decade off, in reality, given the reluctance of China, India, Brazil et al).

There are also rumours that he may pledge to attend the Copenhagen talks himself. If so, he would be the first world leader to do so and it would be welcomed in green circles.

UPDATE

The PM has made his speech.

We were more or less right: He has promised to commit the UK to a new global climate finance fund (of $100bn a year): the country “will pay its fair share of the global total”.

And he has insisted that this won’t come from existing development aid budgets. There must be “additional finance”.

What’s missing is the figure. Maybe that will come out later today.

Jim Pickard

UPDATE: It’s a spoof. Ignore the rest of this blog! Here is Paul Waugh on how the whole media were fooled. Glad I’m not alone. (Although David Cameron and Gordon Brown have both come out to express their condolences this morning.)

FURTHER UPDATE:

Now Miliband has now said that the death is “sad” news. You could be forgiven for feeling confused.

Glad to see that David Miliband has an opinion on the death of Michael Jackson:

Never has one soared so high and yet dived so low. RIP Michael” was the foreign secretary’s Twitter message last night.

Perhaps I was wrong to suggest last year that Miliband didn’t have the common touch.

In terms of New Labour populism, however, surely no one can ever beat Tony Blair’s attempts to get Deirdre from Coronation Street (the soap opera) out of “jail”.

Jim Pickard

The Big Lie – Tory cuts versus Labour investment – is now taken for granted. So it wasn’t newsworthy when Gordon Brown repeated it during an address to a bunch of Labour youngsters in Victoria this afternoon.

I did like this new one though: “They (Tories) would take away all the measures that would help the unemployed.”

So, David Cameron would scrap all JobCentres and unemployment benefits? Really?

A jubilant taxpayer approaches Sir Rodrick Whitehall after hearing that Gordon Brown has abandoned plans to increase the public contribution to the MPs’ pension pot.

Tim Taxpayer: Hoorah! At last. They’ve seen sense. Even venal MPs realise the public wouldn’t accept stumping up more cash to feather the Westminster pension scheme. We’re making progress!

Sir Roderick Whitehall: I’m pleased you think so.

TT: So how much will this save?

RW: Well. It depends what you mean by “save”.

TT: Do we put in less money into the MPs’ pension pot?

RW: The contribution will be capped.

TT: So now the MPs will have to either contribute more from their salaries or make the scheme less generous. I can already hear the pips squeaking! If they don’t do that the scheme’s deficit would balloon and they’d be unable to fund those lavish retirement benefits. Poor MPs. Isn’t life hard.

RW: Indeed. But this is awfully complex. MPs have said they will look at ways of making up for the cap in the taxpayer contribution. But of course it will take some time to decide how to proceed.

TT: Well, that’s fine by me. It’s their scheme. They can gamble with their futures and starve the pension pot if they want to. Frankly I hope scheme collapses under the weight of their greed.

RW: Ah, well, that would be impossible of course.

TT: What do you mean?

RW: The scheme is guaranteed.

TT: What?

RW: Yes the scheme is guaranteed by the taxpayer. Even if it had no money left in the pot and a deficit the size of…well, a significant overexposure, retired MPs would still be paid from public funds.

TT: So what difference does reducing the taxpayer contribution make?

RW: That is a good question. I like to see it as a sign of intent. And, of course, the MPs would have had a dashed difficult vote today if they had kept the same motion.

TT: Hang on a minute. You mean they expect me to be pleased by the “sacrifice” of not making us pay more money into their scheme? It means nothing! We’re still on the hook for the whole lot.

RW: No need to be so cynical about it. This way is far less painful.

When it comes to bookshelves, I’m unashamedly nosy. So as Ed Balls gave a briefing on Neet statistics last week, I concentrated on jotting down the books he kept in his office. The results were interesting enough for us to launch an occasional series — “on the bookshelf” — devoted to snooping into politician’s libraries.

Balls is unlikely to be impressed at being our first victim. But he shouldn’t worry. His office collection, for the most part, stands to his credit. There are a couple of odd choices (Gerald Ronson’s autobigraphy?). But the quality is generally high (particularly for an office) and there are no embarrassing texts on “Great Chancellors”. Indeed, I probably regard Balls more highly after having taken a peek into his library. See what you think.

There is an obligatory Churchill section: Gilbert’s Churchill a Life and Churchill Speaks. A smartly bound three volume work on John F Kennedy takes up the top shelf, but I couldn’t make out the author. No sign of Robert Caro’s masterpiece on LBJ (at home?).

There’s lots of history: Piers Brendon’s The Dark Valley – a breathtaking survey of the 1930s, the “low dishonest decade”. Also spotted Democracy in Europe by Larry Sidentop.

Henry Kissinger’s Diplomacy makes an appearance. This is on my bookshelf too — a compelling take on statesmanship from Metternich to Truman to, uh, Kissinger.

The American pollsters take up space. Stan Greenberg a veteran pollster and hired gun for the Labour party gallops though his political battles in Dispatches from the War Room. Placed nearby is Mark Penn’s Microtrends: all you need to know about “mom-fluentials” and “office park dads”. Probably one of the best guides available for finding the endangered species of “Labour loyalists”.

What’s the strangest book he owns? It has to be Gerald Ronson’s autobiography Leading from the Front. The former jailbird and property tycoon explains how “he fought his way to the top of the business ladder, lost everything twice, then clawed his way back up again”. Just what an education secretary needs.

There is something resembling an SDP section. It includes biography of Hugh Gaitskell, the original Labour moderniser and mentor to the SDP, and Edmund Dell’s A Strange Eventful History: Democratic Socialism in Britain.

On policy? Over to You, Mr Brown — Anthony Giddens tells us “how Labour can win again”. (He suggests a thoroughly uninspiring campaign slogan of “Safer with Labour”.) Also Instruction to Deliver, Michael Barber’s shrewd take on public service reform.

There was one mystery: a book called “The New Capitalism”. No luck finding it on Amazon. But wait. Could it be Robert Peston’s latest book, which is released in 2010? Surely Balls wasn’t given a sneak peek?

Don’t forget the joys of food, God, art and a crisply written thriller. Balls owns a cookery book called “Grow, Cook, Eat”, the Tanakh, the Big Book of Art, and Tom Bradby’s Blood Money.

(In the interests of full disclosure, I should tell you a bit about our bookshelf in the FT Commons office. I’m afraid to say it is stacked to the gills with duds. Highlights include a Turkish translation of Olli Rehn’s book on enlargement, Hilary Clinton’s It takes a Village, and Jimmy Carter’s attempt at a novel: The Hornet’s Nest.)

Jim Pickard

McBride is a listed company which acts as a “supplier of own-brand products to supermarkets”. Fascinating.

But what is curious is that its share price fell sharply in mid-April just as the fortunes of Westminster’s Damian McBride slumped. (He quit on April 11). A weird co-incidence?

Anyway, the share price of McBride the company seems to be on the up; does this herald the return of McBride the spin doctor (as the Tories seem to think)?

Before lawyers start picking up the phone: No, Damian McBride has nothing to do with McBride the company. I hope that’s clear.

Jim Pickard

Anyone hoping that John Bercow would fall flat in his first session of prime minister’s questions (Tory MPs, for example) would have been disappointed.

He didn’t hesitate to put down unruly MPs. Or warn them that the public didn’t like rowdy behaviour: “There is simply far too much noise. The public doesn’t like it and neither do I.”

At one point he silenced Tory MP Michael Fabricant: “Mr Fabricant, you must calm yourself; it’s not good for your health.”

After the session Bercow set out his stall, ordering ministers to make more snappy statements and so on. He said he was unhappy with policy statements being released to the media before the House of Commons.

This will be a key test of his powers – and whether the office of Speaker is more toothless than some presume. For the last decade it has been common practice for hacks to get wind of policy changes before the Commons (and no I’m not complaining). Will Bercow really prevent this? And if so, how?

UPDATE

If you didn’t see it, here is the less agreeable side of Bercow, as seen in an interview with ITN’s Tom Bradby.

Jim Pickard

The charge against Gordon Brown is that his promise of future investment – instead of cuts – is cloud cuckoo land given the grim public finances. You may think this unfair.

But here is the verdict of the governor of the Bank of England today when asked about the national deficit:

Mervyn King:

“The speed of which the fiscal stimulus should be withdrawn has to depend on the state of the economy. …The scale of the deficit is truly extraordinary. 12.5 percent of GDP is not something that anybody would have anticipated even a year or two ago. And this reflects the scale of the global downturn.

But it also reflects the fact that we came into this crisis with fiscal policy itself on a path that wasn’t itself sustainable and a correction was needed.

There will certainly need to be a plan for the lifetime of the next parliament, contingent on the state of the economy, to show how those deficits will be brought down if the economy recovers to reach levels of deficits below those which were shown in the budget figures.”

Jim Pickard

PMQs is drawing to a close. Crash. Smash. Thud. That is the sound of a prime minister caught in an elephant trap – and one of his own making.

This was supposed to be a trap for the opposition parties. The dividing line to end all dividing lines. Labour invests, Tories cut. It sounds so very simple and easy for the public to understand.

But as I pointed out exactly one week ago, the premise is based on the idea that the public can be fooled. It is fundamentally dishonest. And Gordon Brown now seems to be trapped in a far from ideal tactical position.

Again and again at PMQs just now, Brown repeated the line; the Tories would cut investment by 10 per cent, Labour would invest. “That is the party that would cut the vital public services at a time of recession,” he claimed.

They “would cut by 10 per cent savagely and that is not going to be allowed to happen.” And “the Conservatives are going to cut spending on housing, education, policing”.

As almost everyone has now pointed out, Labour’s own cuts – in real terms and taking into account higher benefit payments etc – will be of a similar order, if not necessarily quite so severe, depending on which crucial services are ring-fenced. Why: because the public finances are rapidly deteriorating. It’s not rocket science.

During PMQs Brown refused to admit that capital investment will decline over the next three years, a fact laid out in the Treasury’s own documents.

Instead, pressed again and again by David Cameron, he talked about the high capital investment of the last two years. A relevant point, of course (the figure for this year is a whopping £44bn). But it failed comprehensively to answer the question (the figure for 2012 will be just £26bn) and left the prime minister looking slippery once again.

It was left to Nick Clegg to remind MPs and the public that whoever is running the country from 2010 will face stark choices in future expenditure. “Nobody is fooled by his trick of dressing up cuts as investment,” he said.

The question from now on is this: Will Brown remain in the elephant trap, thrashing around? Will he moderate his argument to be rather more honest? Or are we going to get the same binary debate, every week, until the next general election?

UPDATE

Fraser Nelson at the Spectator has a good chart which shows the future path of capital investment.

FURTHER UPDATE

James Kirkup at the Telegraph claims to have heard Brown admit at one point that capital spending would fall. Clearly a “blink or you’ll miss it” moment. Will check Hansard tomorrow.

Westminster blog

on the UK political scene

About this blog Blog guide
Jim Pickard and Kiran Stacey, FT Westminster correspondents, share the latest news and analysis on the UK's political scene.

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All posts are published in UK time.

Contact the Westminster blog team: Jim Pickard, Kiran Stacey, Nicholas Timmins, Elizabeth Rigby and Helen Warrell.

The illustrations of Jim and Kiran are by Nick Hardcastle.

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The authors

Jim Pickard joined the lobby team in January 2008. He has been at the Financial Times since 1999 as a regional correspondent, assistant UK news editor and property correspondent.

Kiran Stacey is an FT political correspondent, having joined the lobby in 2011. He started at the FT as a graduate trainee in 2008, working on desks including UK companies and US equity markets before taking over the FT's Energy Source blog.

Contributors

Elizabeth Rigby, the FT's chief political correspondent, joined the lobby team in September 2010. Elizabeth has worked at the FT for more than a decade and was most recently its consumer industries editor.

Helen Warrell is the FT's UK reporter, covering home affairs, crime and policing. She joined the FT in 2008 and has spent time as a reporter in the Brussels bureau and more recently, editing the paper's Asia coverage on the world news desk.

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