Westminster blog

The John Bercow for Speaker juggernaut keeps rolling on. He is the 9/5 clear favourite and his odds just keep on shortening. But will this last? Surely a “Stop Bercow” candidate will emerge? Won’t they?

Many MPs are aghast at the thought of a Bercow era in the chair. The reaction of Bercow’s colleagues on the Tory benches is unprintable. They don’t like his style, mannerisms, his political journey from the hard right to squishy centre, or his “new best friends” on the Labour benches. With feelings so strong you would have thought the alternative would be clear by now. But the stop Bercow camp are still waiting for their saviour.

Once dubbed “the most sophisticated electorate in the land”, Westminster is in danger of tying itself in knots. The Bercow campaign has thrived on a sense of trauma: he is gathering pledges from Labour MPs  motivated by a heady mix of revenge, tribal loyalty, and grievance over the expenses scandal. Some think it amounts to nothing more than a sixth-form stunt. Yet those in the anti-Bercow camp seem almost helpless to stop it. Frank Field dropped out of the race complaining that Bercow had it “sewn up”.

Low politics in the race for Speaker? Plus ça change, you say. But what happened to that sense of higher purpose, those urgently calls for radical reform, for bi-partisanship to tackle Westminster’s woes? Many MPs seem to have forgotten why Martin was ousted at all.

The two main candidates for the Stop Bercow ticket appear to be Margaret Beckett and Ann Widdecombe. Beckett, who first served in a Labour government under Harold Wilson in the mid-70s, is already making inroads into the natural Bercow vote. She’s now second favourite with the bookies. Widdecombe, meanwhile, performed well at the hustings on Monday. But she’ll struggle to overcome the misgivings over her plans to step down within the year. Why would Labour MPs want another election for Speaker after an election when they look likely to lose their majority?

While the space of “Stop Bercow” candidate remains vacant, Bercow has been doing a pretty good job of acting as his own opposition. At the hustings on Monday, Bercow went for a core vote strategy, playing to the sense of backbench victimhood while wooing the female vote with pledges to stamp out “sexist” and “boorish” behaviour in the chamber. He will have delighted his base. But it would have given any fair minded MP pause for thought.

The one big hope for the anti-Bercow movement is the knock-out voting system to be used on Monday. Bercow will need to win a decisive vote by at least the first or second round. By that stage a clear “Stop Bercow” candidate is likely to have emerged. It may be late. But it could well be enough to dash Bercow’s hopes. Odds of 9/2 on Beckett look good value.