Monthly Archives: August 2009

From the FT’s Arena blog:

Lord Turner, chairman of the UK’s Financial Services Authority, casts a sceptical light on the role of the City of London in the UK economy in an interview with Prospect Magazine. During the last boom, the financial sector grew as a share of gross domestic product, and ballooned as a share of profits and taxes. Should the government have as a goal to protect the City as a pre-eminent financial centre? Or has the City grown too big for Britain’s good? Lord Turner says the City watchdog should be “very, very wary of seeing the competitiveness of London as a major aim”.  Which British industries – if any – have the potential to replace the City? Does the UK have any choice other than to nourish the financial services industry? Join the debate: click on comment.

Jim Pickard

The Times has splashed this morning on criticism of the government over its imminent alteration to the housing benefit system (which was in the April Budget) which will save £140m a year.*

Frank Field and others are protesting about the change which will mean that people will no longer be able to keep any surplus housing benefit over and above the cost of their rent.

Over a year ago Frank led a successful campaign to overturn the 10p tax policy. I’m not sure he’s on such firm ground this time.

Firstly bear in mind that this quirky windfall has only existed for the last year or so – until then the benefit was paid to landlords rather than tenants.

Secondly we are in the middle of a recession with public finances worsening by the day. It seems ludicrous to argue that people on housing benefit should receive more money than they actually need for their rent.

ASIDE

Yesterday I mentioned that Teresa May was considering reversing the policy so that landlords once again receive the benefit. Not only would this be good news because it would encourage more landlords back into the sector (I’m told many have quit since the original change). It would also render Field’s new mission irrelevant.

* Currently, half of those receiving the housing allowance, around 300,000 people, have managed to get their property at a rent lower than locally-set thresholds. This allows them to pocket some of the saving; up to £15 a week.

UPDATE

Citizens Advice disagree with me. Here is their take:

Under current LHA rules, claimants can keep up to £15 of their benefit, if the LHA rate is higher than the rent they pay. This allows for choice, encourages fairer rents and rewards careful spending.

“Plans to remove this excess are ill thought-out, and risk having a considerable impact on levels of poverty without delivering any real savings to the DWP budget.”

Jim Pickard

Irwin Stelzer in the Telegraph

Philip Stephens in the FT

Times editorial

Simon Jenkins in the Guardian

Rod Liddle in the Spectator

Jackie Ashley in the Guardian

Editorial in The Economist

The Washington Post

Jim Pickard

That was a teaser headline.

I’ve just listened to the shadow welfare secretary for the best part of an hour and I still haven’t a clue what would change under a Tory government vis a vis the benefits system.

To be fair, I don’t normally cover DWP. An expert may have gleaned some policy gems from Ms May’s speech at the Policy Exchange HQ in Westminster this morning. Or maybe not.

Here are some immediate thoughts:

1] May believes that there are whole communities now where the social norm is “antisocial behaviour and idleness” rather than “hard work and discipline”. This seems to me like rather jarring language.

2] She would not answer my question about whether benefits could fall if RPI deflation continues (it’s potentially part of the solution to the national deficit). “I’m not going to answer it and I’m not going to give any answers today on benefits,” she said. “We’re not going to write a Budget now.”

3] Asked by Sam Coates of the Times if any of her policies were different to Labour, she came up with compulsory means-testing of people on incapacity benefit. Except – as I understand it – Labour is already (albeit slowly) going ahead with this.

4] For all the talk of Britain’s dreadful unemployment record, May doesn’t expect the jobless tally to fall under a Tory government. At least that’s what she seemed to say. “The government is predicting more than 2.8m unemployed in 2011, they are also predicting that unemployment is unlikely to return to pre-recession levels until 2016. That, there is the nature of the issue we’re dealing with – it is not going to be easy.

Sounds like expectation management to me. But it doesn’t fit easily with the criticism of Labour for letting unemployment rise in the first place (eg, “Britain faces losing yet another generation to worklessness unless urgent action is taken“).

5] May did signal that she will look at changes to housing benefit which took place a year ago, meaning that tenants instead of landlords currently get the money. Labour’s changes to housing benefit always seemed bizarre to me because they are likely to stop some property owners renting out buildings to people on benefits. May has no concrete plans to reverse the policy but said she was examining it.

Jim Pickard

The man Dan Hannan seems to have put his foot in it again – or has he?

Tory MEP Hannan is now seen by the left as the archetype of frothing rightwingery since his tour of the US denouncing the National Health Service. And now he has popped up on a TV station citing Enoch Powell as a political hero.

Powell, of course, is persona non grata in British political history because of his famous anti-immigration “rivers of blood” speech.

However, Hannan was careful to praise Powell only for his views on the free market and the advantages of a small state.

Critics are trying to draw comparisons with Nigel Hastilow, a former Tory PPC who was sacked for praising Powell’s views on immigration.

By contrast, David Cameron will not be drawn into commenting on this incipient row. His aides say that Hannan did not mention Powell’s opinions on race/immigration so it is not the same issue. Let’s see whether this one has legs or not.

UPDATE

Guido offers one (supportive) interpretation, Mark Hanson the other.

FURTHER UPDATE

Guido has written to point out that Tony Blair led the tributes to Powell after his death in 1998.

“However controversial his views, he was one of the great figures of 20th century British politics, gifted with a brilliant mind,” said the Labour leader.

Jim Pickard

It seems like great news for anyone wanting to get around Britain more swiftly: Network Rail has outlined its plans for a high-speed rail link from London to Scotland. The case for such a scheme is powerful; rail capacity is close to bursting and Britain has been left trailing by other countries such as France and China. Here is the news story on the BBC.

Before you get too excited, however, here are a few reasons why the announcement is not quite what it seems.

1] Network Rail’s report is separate from – and could be irrelevant to – the feasibility study on high-speed rail being carried out by High Speed 2, a company set up by the government earlier this year. HS2 has cautiously described the publication as nothing more than a “useful contribution“.

2] HS2 is primarily focussed on a high-speed route from London to the West Midlands: a longer route up to Scotland is only its secondary consideration.

3] Any new north-south route is about 20 years away. I’m sure that ministers had been talking about 2025 as the potential start date. Now the Network Rail report says it will be 2030. By then I will be 55; you may well be retired or dead.

4] Funding. The Department for Transport will be squeezed, possibly harder than other departments, in the coming years. How will the route be funded?

5] In theory you could lever in some private sector funding. But NR’s report today shows that the full cost of building and running the new line (over 60 years) would be £41bn. But the extra revenue would only be £23bn. That’s an £18bn gap to fill. (There are also £31.4bn of “benefits” in the form of higher GDP due to quicker journeys)

6] NR is concerned about where to build a new station in the capital: “London itself could present an engineering, planning and affordability challenge that delays or prevents the programme being progressed.” In other words, where would you stick the new terminus? Would you have to knock down dozens of office blocks to build it?

7] Today’s announcement has been spun as some kind of Network Rail “go-ahead”. In fact, the recommendation (on page 132 of its “Strategic Business Case”) is more nuanced. It says: “The recommendation of this report is that there is a case to take the London to North West & Scotland corridor forward for further investigation.”

8] Meanwhile Andrew Adonis, transport secretary, is still claiming that high-speed rail would have environmental benefits. This is not as straightforward as it seems, however. The Guardian published a report last week showing that building the new line could produce a huge amount of emissions.

Jim Pickard

From my Notebook column in this morning’s FT:

It is 2012. A press conference in Stratford, east London

Gordon Brown : Britain’s athletes can hold their heads high after our record haul in the British Olympic Games. Never before in the history of the event has our proud nation carried away 40 gold medals.

Nick Robinson, BBC : Prime minister, some people are saying we haven’t done better than previous years but have instead benefited from “grade inflation” in the medal system. What is your view on that?

Brown : This is utter tripe. Our tally is proof of improving standards in athletics and hours of diligent work by trainers and athletes alike.

Newspaper hack : You replaced the bronze medal with a new “gold medal”. You replaced the old silver with “gold star”. And gold is now “gold star star”. Haven’t you just devalued the old system to make Britain look good at sport?

Read the post in full here

Jim Pickard

Amid the debate about whether Gordon Brown should comment on the release of the Lockerbie bomber, here are a few other things which he has commented in the last year:

“I was deeply saddened to hear the news of Jade Goody’s death…she will be remembered fondly by all who knew her” (March 22)

“This is very sad news for the millions of Michael Jackson fans in Britain and around the world” (June 26)

“I want to send my congratulations to captain Charlotte Edwards and the whole England women’s cricket team for a famous victory” (June 22)

(Letter to Daniel Evans, X Factor finalist) “Can I say that the next time Simon says that you are only supported by the over-60s, you can tell him that my wife Sarah and I disagree” (November 5, 2008)

UPDATE

Some further thoughts from Paul Waugh .

FURTHER UPDATE

Brown has broken his silence. He has expressed his revulsion at the triumphant scenes as the Lockerbie bomber returned to Tripoli. “I was both angry and I was repulsed by the reception that a convicted bomber guilty of of a huge terrorist crime received on his return to Libya.”

By contrast, however, he has not said whether he agreed with the decision to release him – made by the Scottish government – or not.

Jim Pickard

Richard Dannatt’s £1.49 bottles of wine: how the head of the Armed Forces put MPs to shame

Mandarins criticise New Labour government

Treasury thought Iraq war would last six months and cost less than the 1991 invasion

Jim Pickard

It’s not every day that I’m accused of “incompetent journalism in its most insidious form” by a (more) famous author*.

But it seems that Nassim Nicholas Taleb is unhappy with the way his comments from yesterday have been reported by the British press. Here is his critique.

I’m still not sure why he included the FT.

Firstly he says he is not a climate change denier (I never said he was).

I wrote instead that he “suggested that climate change was not necessarily man-made.”

This was his precise quote: “I don’t want to mess with Mother Nature..I don’t believe that carbon thing is necessarily anthropogenic (man-made)”.

Is there any difference?

Secondly he argues that he has been misquoted to say he loves crashes.

“Another statement made backwards concerns my position on ‘robustness’. I said that free markets generate fads, crashes, massive movements. Attempts to control the cycle proved futile – what we need is citizens to become ROBUST to them, to be immune to their impact. My point is that we cannot predict Black Swans, but we KNOW their impact and can be prepared for them. Again taken backwards: “Taleb loves crashes.”"

Except Taleb also said, verbatim: “I like crashes. I just like the world to be robust about them.”

Paul Waugh is another journalist to have recorded the quotes, with a dictaphone I should add.

* joke

UPDATE

Incidentally, Taleb did make one interesting point about the crucial role of debt in crashes. The collapse of the dot-com boom did not have major repercussions on the global economy because it involved people betting primarily with equity (ie buying shares in tech companies), he argued. The latest crash was gruesome because of the huge amount of leverage in the system. Absolutely right.

FURTHER UPDATE

Channel 4 have deployed a broadcaster to question Taleb.

My favourite question: “Do you find because your ideas are complicated they are easily mis-represented?”

FINAL UPDATE

Another Taleb spat on FT Alphaville today

In case you’re wondering what lessons Taleb could hold for politicians, here is one attempt to answer the question on Huffington Post

Jim Pickard

I got up super-early this morning – well, 6.30am – to attend a debate between David Cameron and Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black Swan, at the RSA.

Taleb was full of fascinating intellectual ideas but none seemed particularly relevant to UK politics or the big issues (probably) facing Cameron next year.

The result was a bit like watching a couple on an awkward first date where neither is quite following the other’s thread.

Here is my take on it for ft.com

UPDATE

I predicted yesterday – somewhat satirically – that a newspaper would probably claim that Cameron was predicting a default, despite his insistence that he did not expect it to happen.

He raised the possibility of the government not being able to meet its obligations but then said very clearly: “I have never predicted that is going to happen.”

This morning’s front page splash in the Guardian: “Cameron: UK could default on its debt”.

Jim Pickard

Here is my exclusive from this morning’s FT. It’s pretty self-explanatory.

And here is the accompanying piece.

This is the tale in a nutshell:

Lord Mandelson met Colonel Gaddafi’s son at a Corfu villa only a week before the announcement that the perpetrator of the Lockerbie bombing could be released from prison, the Financial Times has learnt.

Saif al-Islam Gaddafi, widely seen as the Libyan leader’s most likely successor, was a fellow guest of the Rothschild family at its Greek property a fortnight ago in a wider annual gathering of powerful friends.

Stays by the two men overlapped by only one night, according to Lord Mandelson’s spokesman.

He said the pair spoke only briefly but they did discuss Abdelbaset Ali al-Megrahi. “There was a fleeting conversation about the prisoner; Peter was completely unsighted on the subject,” he said.

It was only one week later that news emerged that Mr Megrahi could get an early release on compassionate grounds because he is suffering from terminal cancer.

Lord Mandelson said through his spokesman that he had had no involvement in the decision and only learnt of it through the BBC. Mr Megrahi’s possible release was a decision entirely for the Scottish government rather than London.

“It was entirely coincidental,” the spokesman said.

For a glimpse into the world occupied by the likes of Nat Rothschild and his friend Said Al-Gaddafi it’s worth reading this blog by Taki.

Westminster blog

on the UK political scene

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Jim Pickard and Kiran Stacey, FT Westminster correspondents, share the latest news and analysis on the UK's political scene.

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Contact the Westminster blog team: Jim Pickard, Kiran Stacey, Nicholas Timmins, Elizabeth Rigby and Helen Warrell.

The illustrations of Jim and Kiran are by Nick Hardcastle.

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The authors

Jim Pickard joined the lobby team in January 2008. He has been at the Financial Times since 1999 as a regional correspondent, assistant UK news editor and property correspondent.

Kiran Stacey is an FT political correspondent, having joined the lobby in 2011. He started at the FT as a graduate trainee in 2008, working on desks including UK companies and US equity markets before taking over the FT's Energy Source blog.

Contributors

Elizabeth Rigby, the FT's chief political correspondent, joined the lobby team in September 2010. Elizabeth has worked at the FT for more than a decade and was most recently its consumer industries editor.

Helen Warrell is the FT's UK reporter, covering home affairs, crime and policing. She joined the FT in 2008 and has spent time as a reporter in the Brussels bureau and more recently, editing the paper's Asia coverage on the world news desk.

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