Within the Westminster world there is a growing feeling that the financial crisis is over. Spring has sprung, daffodils are blooming, the stock market has (partially) recovered, unemployment figures are not as bad as expected – etc.
But many analysts are warning that the current recovery is almost entirely down to the actions of central government (QE, low interest rates) which will at some point have to unwind.
There is also the commercial property crash. The price of offices and shops may sound esoteric if not boring – but so did “sub-prime”, once upon a time.
My colleagues at Alphaville have done a great job of highlighting the risk to banks from the sector.
Okay, so this is a political blog. But sometimes we diversify. I’ve been sent a report by the New Economics Foundation (an green-minded outfit) claiming that the world is going further and further into “ecological debt” – meaning it is consuming more resources than ecosystems can produce and absorb. The recession has barely affected the trend.
The report points out that “crazy and wasteful” ways that the UK does business with other countries through ‘boomerang trade’ with almost identical products going backwards and forewards.