Monthly Archives: January 2010

Jim Pickard

Channel Four and BBC’s Newsnight are vying to host a high-profile “chancellor’s debate” during the general election campaign, I’ve been told.

The event would see Alistair Darling, chancellor of the Exchequer, pitted against George Osborne, shadow chancellor, and Vince Cable, the Treasury spokesman for the Liberal Democrats. The presenters would almost certainly be Jon Snow (pictured) and/or Jeremy Paxman respectively.

All three have claimed that they are willing and enthusiastic to take part in such an event but negotiations are still going on over its exact format. There could even be more than one debate between the trio. (Apparently Question Time are also angling to do a chancellors’ debate).

I’m not sure who will come out on top – you may have your own opinion.

The plans come as the details are being thrashed out between the three parties and the BBC, Sky and ITV over the headline “leaders’ debates” which will take place through April.

Gordon Brown, David Cameron and Nick Clegg are to go head to head on live television in three successive weeks in what is an historic first for the UK.

The negotiations taking place are edging forward over difficult questions such as who will comprise the audience, whether they will be allowed to ask questions and whether they may have to sit in silence.

One media source said that broadcasters were keen for a variety of other debates between other senior MPs likely to perform well. The most likely were between the foreign affairs spokesmen and – potentially – those with the education brief, he said.

The televised debates between Mr Darling, Mr Osborne and Mr Cable are to be scheduled so as not to clash with the leaders’ debate. Each will attempt to stake his claim over economic competence and responses to the credit crunch as well as policies for cutting the deficit.

In 1997 the then chancellor Ken Clarke debated against his shadows – Mr Brown and Malcolm Bruce – on a BBC programme called “Debate for Chancellor”. All three also appeared in turn on a Channel 4 programme called Power and the People.

Update: For early reactions to Blair at the Iraq inquiry, read this post from the ftdotcomment blog.

5.16pm: That’s it from me and Alex. I think Blair had the better of this: a refined defence and one, says former Lib Dem leader Ming Campbell, that was aimed at his legacy.

Some of those who heard him will be far from happy, particularly at his decision not to voice regret. Sky reporting Blair was jeered as he left the inquiry: “You are a liar,” shouted one person. “A murderer,” shouted another. Those who wanted to hear regret, says the BBC’s Nick Robinson, will be disappointed.

5.14pm: Well, there you have it. He’s sorry – for being divisive – but firmly believes the war was right. Sure, some things could have been done better (the intel and the planning), but with or without WMD, toppling Saddam was the right thing to do. We’d all be worse off if he was still there, not least because of the growing threat from Iran.

2.56pm: OK, we’ve slowed the refresh time on the post and will set up a new window for rest of coverage. Should make it easier to read. Give us a minute. Click here to read Live blog: Tony Blair at the Iraq inquiry – part 2.

2.54pm: Blair says what he needed to know from him [Goldsmith] in the end was what was his conclusion? Was this lawful? “Incidentally, he wasn’t alone in international law for coming to that conclusion. As I say, if you read 1441, it was pretty clear this was Saddam’s last chance.”

2.52pm Classic politician’s trick from Blair: how can you not believe me? “When you go back and read 1441, it’s pretty obvious you can make a decent case for this,” he says, inviting agreement. Sir Rod will not be drawn. “Let me not pass judgment on this. I’m asking questions. I don’t have an opinion to state on this.”

Jim Pickard

Pensioner poverty has fallen by nearly a million under Labour, says the ONS

“Learn to laugh at yourself” and “control aggression”: Anti-stress advice to Treasury officials.

Ben Brogan on how Lady Ashcroft spotted Cameron’s talents in 2005.

Jim Pickard

Geoff Hoon is worried that his local party activists will oust him ahead of the general election as punishment for his useless coup against Gordon Brown. I’m not sure he should be.

Labour people in Ashfield have been complaining about the former defence secretary for weeks, with rumbling about a deselection.

However, the timing is all a bit skew-whiff, from what I can work out.

1] They need to pass a local vote against their MP, which is not guaranteed to pass (surely some of them dislike Gordon Brown?) Even councillor Steve Carroll, who has been quoted everywhere criticising Hoon, tells me that he just wants the MP to come back to Ashfield and apologise to his comrades.

“We’re in a void where we haven’t really heard from Geoff,” he said. “If he appeared before local party members and showed some leadership in the constituency I think it would clear it.”

2] They then need to pass the motion on to the Labour NEC (national executive committee). The NEC only meets every two months and gathered yesterday. I’m told it wouldn’t want to deselect an established MP at the end of March, just before the general election.

3] In extremis the local party could pass a motion of reselection to the NEC without a vote. But they would, again, still have to wait until late March for an NEC vote.

If Hoon doesn’t fight the general election it will probably be because he doesn’t want to spend the next five years as a backbencher.

Jim Pickard

The deputising Harriet Harman slipped in a neat riposte to William Hague during PMQs when she said: “His reversing is even worse than mine” – a reference to her spot of bother down in Peckham a few weeks back. Clearly she thought she should make the joke before Hague did.

She was less sure-footed when David Jones, a Tory MP, quoted the famous Mandelson quote about Labour being “intensely relaxed” about people getting “filthy rich”. In this light how did she feel about the commercial success of the former PM – ie Tony Blair?

Harman’s reply – something about Labour standing for social mobility – was treated with more than a little scepticism. Blair’s origins were far from humble; he was born into a comfortable family and studied at Fettes and Oxford.

As Andrew Grice points out: even the Labour front bench were laughing.

Jim Pickard

If you don’t follow Nick Robinson’s excellent blog it’s worth reading his last two offerings, about a secret meeting between the DUP, UUP and the Tories. There’s more in the Irish Times.

The venue was Hatfield House, home of Lord Cranborne, the former Tory MP* and peer who opposed the Anglo-Irish Agreement negotiated by Margaret Thatcher and has long been regarded as a “friend of unionism”.

There is a whiff of suggestion that David Cameron would welcome an alliance between the DUP and UUP to bolster the unionist cause in Northern Ireland.

As Robinson reveals:

Some who attended the talks insist that they also focused on the dream of “unionist unity” – co-operation or, perhaps in the long term, merger, between the UUP and DUP – which could prevent Sinn Fein’s electoral triumph and, in Westminster elections, deliver a dozen unionist MPs who might be expected to support the Conservatives. Very helpful indeed if David Cameron faces a hung Parliament after the next election.

This reminded me of a coffee I had with a senior(ish) Tory before Christmas.

He predicted that Cameron would rather enter a coalition with the DUP (which has 9 MPs) than the Liberal Democrats. His reasoning: the Lib Dems would extract much more difficult concessions from the Tories and would – with 60 or 70 MPs – be harder to ignore.

At the time this seemed a bit “out-there”. The DUP have long had a reputation as firebrand unionists under the leadership of Reverend Ian Paisley (pictured).

Yet the more moderate UUP is a diminished force in Westminster, with only one member of Parliament. Peter Robinson, the current leader of the DUP, is more pragmatic than his predecessor.

However, my conversation was before the Iris Robinson scandal broke, meaning it might have been overtaken by events – but the Hatfield House talks will continue to provoke similar speculation.

UPDATE

There is annoyance in the Tory camp that this the meeting (the weekend before last) is being spun as an attempt to cook up a new unionist alliance in Northern Ireland. They insist that their only intention was to get the DUP and UUP together to work together on solving the “impasse” in giving policing and justice powers to Stormont. It was a “serious attempt to get them to co-operate a bit more, a nudge forward”, says one person who was there.

It is true that the issue of closer co-operation (ie a united unionists) was raised by at least one person present. “That always happens in such circumstances,” I’m told*. But this was incidental and not the raison d’etre of the gathering.

The formal Tory position is still that it will – together with the UUP – foot 18 PPCs in Ulster as “Conservative and Unionist” candidates.

The last thing David Cameron would want as incoming PM is a new Northern Ireland crisis, they say: which is entirely believable. “The government should take a hold of themselves rather than trying to create artificial dividing lines,” I’m told.

* There are two seats, South Belfast and Fermanagh/South Tyrone, which many unionists believe should be theirs if only they buried the hatchet.

UPDATE

It was Nick Watt at the Guardian who broke this story in the first place. Here he recalls another meeting in 1997 between the UUP and DUP – also at Hatfield House – with similar overtones.

Jim Pickard

Former legal adviser at the Foreign Office believed the Iraq invasion would be illegal

But don’t expect a smoking gun this week, argues Philip Stephens

UK economy out of recession: growth of 0.1 per cent in last quarter of 2009

Could the election come earlier than May? Adam Boulton asks the question

Jim Pickard

A reader calls to point out that Motorway Man even has his own theme tune.

Written by Sleeper, the b-tier indie band from the early 1990s, it describes him appearing “slow-faced worn and weary,” which isn’t very flattering I suppose.

Singer Louise Wener, pictured, is now a successful novelist.

Jim Pickard

The former prime minister is not taking up an advisory post or directorship at Lansdowne Partners, as others are tweeting, or so the company insists.

However, he will give four “geopolitical” talks to staff at the hedge fund. At about £50-£100,000 per speech that still adds up to a generous payment. There are also well-placed suggestions that this could be extended in the future into a more permanent role.

Paul Ruddock, chair of the V&A, is a generous philanthropist having given lots of money to museums around the UK. He has also given £260,000 to another ancient institution: the Tory party. As Alex just tweeted: “Welcome on board Tony!

It was reported last year that Lansdowne made £100m by shorting Barclays shares. It was also a big short-seller of Northern Rock. Since then however, it has been buying back into the sector in a big way, I’m assured.

Anyway, you can add Lansdowne to the long list of interests which make up “Blair inc”. Here is a link to our feature on his charity/business empire from last October.

UPDATE

Here is the response from Blair’s office:

“Mr Blair remains one of the most popular international speakers around. These talks for Lansdowne were organised by the Washington Speakers Bureau in the usual way. Mr Blair has not taken a job with Landsdowne Partners.”

Jim Pickard

Trying to label the vital voters who make all the difference in a close-run general election is not always easy.

But a new demographic character called “Motorway Man” has been defined by Rob Hayward (you may remember the ever-wise Hayward told you about the potential clash between football fixtures and the election TV debate long before it made the news this weekend).

Motorway Man is an aspirational character, maybe a sales rep or similar, who typically lives in a new housing estate on an “infill” former mining area near to a motorway. He used to vote Labour – or his parents did – but is now a Tory. The critical point is that these areas have been growing, population-wise, faster than the rest of the country.

If you think this sounds tenuous, we ran a graphic in Friday’s FT showing the 21 marginal constituencies which lay along just three motorways; M6, M1 and M61. They include Morley & Outwood, which is being contested by Ed Balls, education secretary.

Even Peter Hain recognises the existence of this new character. “Labour can no longer depend on the old basis of its appeal – a deep almost cultural attachment in mining communities,” the Welsh secretary told me in an interview last week.

“People are now working in more diverse jobs, often travelling, in a way they never did before. There are new housing estates everywhere.”

Speaking of swing seats, the News of the World has a poll* today suggesting a 38-seat majority for the Tories – based on an 8.5 per cent swing in key marginals. Labour may take some solace from the fact aht nearly 80 per cent of those polled thought Gordon Brown was “trying to do a good job in difficult circumstances”.

As Fraser Nelson puts it:

“Cameron looks set to pull off the biggest pro-Tory swing since 1935 – yet may still have barely enough MPs to pass laws. A majority of 38 means it would take just 20 disgruntled Tories to defeat the government. Or hold Cam to ransome.”

UPDATE

To listen to Philip Gould debate Motorway Man with Haywood here is Saturday’s Today programme, which I had missed.

* Ignore the idea that Alistair Darling will lose his seat. Of course it is not impossible. But straight Labour-Tory opinion polls don’t really work in Scotland, where the Conservatives are less popular and the SNP wins many votes.

Jim Pickard

Tories back off from plans to give Sir Richard Dannatt a peerage and job as defence minister

Lord Mandelson explains how he bought his abode: “If you ask me whether I would rather have my nice terraced house…or have my mother still alive today, I would prefer my mother still to be alive”.

Alistair Darling remains cool on Obama plans to separate bank functions

Westminster blog

on the UK political scene

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Jim Pickard and Kiran Stacey, FT Westminster correspondents, share the latest news and analysis on the UK's political scene.

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Contact the Westminster blog team: Jim Pickard, Kiran Stacey, Nicholas Timmins, Elizabeth Rigby and Helen Warrell.

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The authors

Jim Pickard joined the lobby team in January 2008. He has been at the Financial Times since 1999 as a regional correspondent, assistant UK news editor and property correspondent.

Kiran Stacey is an FT political correspondent, having joined the lobby in 2011. He started at the FT as a graduate trainee in 2008, working on desks including UK companies and US equity markets before taking over the FT's Energy Source blog.

Contributors

Elizabeth Rigby, the FT's chief political correspondent, joined the lobby team in September 2010. Elizabeth has worked at the FT for more than a decade and was most recently its consumer industries editor.

Helen Warrell is the FT's UK reporter, covering home affairs, crime and policing. She joined the FT in 2008 and has spent time as a reporter in the Brussels bureau and more recently, editing the paper's Asia coverage on the world news desk.

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