Monthly Archives: March 2010

The folks in Downing Street will be busily choreographing Gordon Brown’s announcement for the election. There’s one unlikely venue they should consider: parliament. No prime minister has announced an election in the chamber for 75 years.

The history of all this is all laid out in a fascinating table in the Rallings and Thrasher book of British electoral facts.

In the early part of the century, the Commons was the favoured place to make these announcements. But the last prime minister to call an election from the dispatch box was Stanley Baldwin in 1935.

Most post-war prime ministers fired the starting gun with a press announcement or broadcast and the fashion since the 1990s has been a statement from Downing Street. The exception was Blair’s memorable 2001 announcement to a school, replete with halo and stained glass window.

The Commons has fallen terribly out of favour. The joke is that there is no better place to bury a news story. Given what a bad year the institution has had, perhaps Brown could break the mould? Imagine the theatre of a final joust with Cameron before heading off to see the Queen. A fun thought but unlikely to happen. Far too much could go wrong.

Jim Pickard

hat-tip Guido: This was originally created by Armando Iannucci’s Time Trumpet.

The Brown team assembled today for the last full cabinet photo before the election. Two ministers were notably absent: Alistair Darling and David Miliband. They both had good excuses. But somehow it seems fitting. Was this as close as Brown will ever get to his fantasy cabinet? You have to wonder whether Ed Balls assumed the chancellor’s place. Smiles everyone!

Jim Pickard

Blair is looking even more orange than usual, and rather thin around the face. Maybe it is the bright red “A future fair for all” Labour wallpaper behind him. Rhetorically he hasn’t changed much: still lots of pregnant pauses and persuasive hand movements.

There is still a whiff of the preacher: “Although the sea is still rough the storm has subsided….at the moment of peril the world acted, Britain acted.”

I think we might be about to get the crucial Brown-is-amazing job reference: Isn’t that the reason Blair has broken off from his globetrotting to make the speech?

Okay, here it is: “It required leadership and Gordon Brown supplied it.”

Job done.

btw, Blair has just described “change” as the most vacuous political slogan ever; surely he must have used it in 1997. Surely?

The main argument is quite compelling, however. Blair claims the Tories have made a mistake by tacking right on Europe, left on law & order and “buffeted this way and that” on the economy. Expect to hear more of this during the election campaign.

11.55am

He’s still going, with a list of achievements under Labour, including devolution, flexible working and the minimum wage. It would be impressive if we hadn’t heard it from Brown himself during the Labour conference. Blair has also just mentioned how Basra is now a better place; risky territory, surely?

Jim Pickard

No one was paying much attention to what Labour would do with its fourth term; most people had presumed that it would lose on May 6. Now that the opinion polls have narrowed, it’s worth examining what plans Gordon Brown has for the next five years.

This morning we reported ministerial concerns that Ed Miliband has over-sold the manifesto by claiming it will be the most radical in Labour’s history; most of the policies we know about have been kicking around for months or years.

For immediate evidence of Labour’s tendency to over-promise and under-deliver, take care for the elderly; an area which needs to be addressed swiftly and radically. That now isn’t going to happen, judging by Andy Burnham’s interview in this morning’s Times.

In theory the health secretary’s big idea is to give free care to elderly people who have already been in residential care for two years (ie a small proportion of them) at the cost of £1bn a year. (This is part of the new ‘national care service’.)

In practice the bigger issue – how to pay for everyone else who is in care for under two years – is being kicked into the long grass: Not only will the measure be postponed while a cross-party commission takes another look at it; it is also at least half a decade away, as the Times explains.

Although a re-elected Labour government would legislate for a compulsory system in the next parliament, such a system would not come into force until the following one.

The fact that Labour has abandoned its so-called “death tax” (a levy to pay for elderly care) was revealed last night by Alistair Darling during the chancellors’ Rumble in the Jungle soiree in the foyer*.

Burnham’s new compromise policy would appear at first examination to be a fudge of the highest order.

UPDATE

Norman Lamb, Lib Dem health spokesman, said the delay was “unacceptable” on the Today programme. Having said that, Lamb was himself criticised for wanting to carry out a review of care for the elderly before making a decision; the difference was, he said, that his would be completed in a year. The Tories have called Burnham’s proposals an “utter retreat” and a “car crash”.

* Or as the Sun puts it: “Clash of the Tight ‘Uns”.

UPDATE

Nick Robinson agrees that the “journey” towards universal care for the elderly has only just begun.

Meanwhile the New Statesman is suspicious about our critique of the Labour manifesto

Jim Pickard

9pm (JP) Scheduled against Eastenders and Coronation Street, this was always going to be a warm-up to the main event; the leaders’ debates. But instructive nevertheless. A big thanks here to Ian Mulheirn from the Social Market Foundation for providing intellectual ballast. (He moved house only yesterday and may have some apologies to make when he arrives home. Heroic).

8.58pm (AB) It’s all over. A lively if completely unenlightening debate. Who would have thought there was an election on? In picking a winner, it is always worth remembering that it is not relative performance that is important. It’s about what the public thought of you before the debate — and whether that changes. Darling made no big mistakes. There were a couple of decent gags and some flashes of passion, which may have surprised some viewers. Osborne stood his ground and certainly looked calm. The negative side was that he made little of the National Insurance announcement and sometimes looked like he was being ganged up on. Cable threw and landed the most punches. But the fact the other two didnt even bother to discuss Lib Dem policy was telling.

8.55pm (AB) Some thoughts from Chris Cook, a star FT leader writer:

Vince is winning, so far, cementing his place as the cabbie’s favourite politician. Smashed MPs and bankers in his intro minute, and clobbered Osborne over the (beserk-in-a-recession) IHT cut.

8.53pm (JP). They are wrapping up. Darling boasts (sotto voce) about having made the right calls. Job opportunities are the main thing, he says. Vince says “who can you trust?”. Labour led Britain into “this mess” and wasted money on over-centralised public services, argues Cable. He doesn’t like the Tories either. “Now they want another chance to get their noses in the trough and reward their rich backers.” St Vince isn’t being so saintly right now. Don’t hold back chap. Last but not least, Osborne is summing up. He points out, rightly, that Labour has been in power for 13 years. “They took one of the strongest economies in Europe and now we have one of the weakest.” It’s a powerful argument. You only have one chance to get Labour out, he says.

Jim Pickard

We were the first to reveal that Mandelson favourite Tristram Hunt was likely to get the Stoke Central seat.

Now I can reveal that Hunt, an urbane historian, has just made it on to the shortlist for the seat. Byron Taylor of TULO, the trade union liaison group, is NOT on the list.

This selection was always going to be about New Labour getting one of their own into a safe seat. Hunt’s path now seems clear for selection – if not it will be a major surprise to all those concerned.

Part of the £12bn Tory efficiency savings will come from “tighter control of public sector recruitment”.

George Osborne’s aides are making clear that it is not a full hiring freeze. But it will come close to it in parts of the public sector. In crude terms, they’re arguing that frontline jobs should be refilled while backoffice jobs are sacrificed to “natural wastage”.

This could make a big difference. Martin Read, the former chief executive of Logica turned patron saint of government efficiency, argues in his statement of support for the Tories that the turnover of staff in the public sector runs at 8 per cent a year.

Now, there are around 6m public sector workers. So a full hiring freeze would cut 480,000 job posts. Even if the Tories were half serious about the hiring freeze, that would cut the public sector payroll by 240,000. Big savings, sure. But it is quite a promise to make with less than 40 days to an election.

Jim Pickard

This may be pertinent after the Tory promise to pay for its National Insurance cut with efficiency savings across Whitehall. The quotation speaks for itself: David Cameron, May 19, 2008:

The government ‘efficiency drive’ is one of the oldest tricks in the book. The trouble is, it’s nearly always just that – a trick. In fact it’s such a cliché, there was an episode of Yes Minister about it, called ‘The Economy Drive.’ Ministers are summoned, officials instructed, the media prepared for sweeping savings in the running costs of government. And then, a few months down the line, the sheepish-looking ministers and officials come back and say ‘well actually, it wasn’t quite as straightforward as we’d hoped, Prime Minister.’”

Jim Pickard

Sir Peter Gershon is the latest adviser to Labour who has jumped ship to the Tories. This morning George Osborne said he would oversee new efficiency cuts under a Tory government.

He hasn’t always been close to the Conservatives, however…

From the FT, 21st of July, 2004:

Sir Peter Gershon, whose efficiency review has led to plans for 75,000 civil service jobs to be cut along with another 15,000 in local government, told the Financial Times:

“I do think it is extremely unfortunate the way the Conservatives have chosen to utilise images [of] civil servants stereotyped as unproductive, bowler-hatted, bureaucrats.”

Jim Pickard

Just a note to say that Alex and I will be live blogging tonight at 8pm as Alistair Darling, George Osborne and VInce Cable go head to head in a Channel 4 debate.

Westminster blog

on the UK political scene

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Jim Pickard and Kiran Stacey, FT Westminster correspondents, share the latest news and analysis on the UK's political scene.

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Contact the Westminster blog team: Jim Pickard, Kiran Stacey, Nicholas Timmins, Elizabeth Rigby and Helen Warrell.

The illustrations of Jim and Kiran are by Nick Hardcastle.

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The authors

Jim Pickard joined the lobby team in January 2008. He has been at the Financial Times since 1999 as a regional correspondent, assistant UK news editor and property correspondent.

Kiran Stacey is an FT political correspondent, having joined the lobby in 2011. He started at the FT as a graduate trainee in 2008, working on desks including UK companies and US equity markets before taking over the FT's Energy Source blog.

Contributors

Elizabeth Rigby, the FT's chief political correspondent, joined the lobby team in September 2010. Elizabeth has worked at the FT for more than a decade and was most recently its consumer industries editor.

Helen Warrell is the FT's UK reporter, covering home affairs, crime and policing. She joined the FT in 2008 and has spent time as a reporter in the Brussels bureau and more recently, editing the paper's Asia coverage on the world news desk.

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