There was a big move overnight against the Tories in the betting markets. A hung parliament is now the most likely outcome of the election, according to punters on Betfair, the online betting exchange. The odds at midday on Saturday are:
Tory Majority — 6/5 — 46 per cent probability
Hung parliament — Evens — 49.5 per cent probability
It puts the odds of Cameron securing a majority below evens for the first time since May 2008.
About £1.7m has been matched in this market so far. It requires some hefty wagers to move it this dramatically. Instead of the odds being set by a bookie, the probabilities in this market represent whatever punters are willing to pay. The betting markets are clearly taking the rise of Super Clegg and the latest YouGov poll very seriously.