There was a big move overnight against the Tories in the betting markets. A hung parliament is now the most likely outcome of the election, according to punters on Betfair, the online betting exchange. The odds at midday on Saturday are:
Tory Majority — 6/5 — 46 per cent probability
Hung parliament — Evens — 49.5 per cent probability
It puts the odds of Cameron securing a majority below evens for the first time since May 2008.
About £1.7m has been matched in this market so far. It requires some hefty wagers to move it this dramatically. Instead of the odds being set by a bookie, the probabilities in this market represent whatever punters are willing to pay. The betting markets are clearly taking the rise of Super Clegg and the latest YouGov poll very seriously.
Here is a chart showing the chances of a Tory victory:
Jim Pickard
Kiran Stacey