Well, for my final £20 I was looking for a broader bet on seat numbers, vote share, or a majority. But most of these wagers seem to be pretty poor value, particularly given the uncertainty in this race.
So to crush the Pickard “tortoise”, I’ve picked out a few seats again based on conversations with some campaigners.
The first is a Tory win inFeltham & Heston. Alan Keen has had a rough time over expenses and he’s facing a two-pronged assault from the Tories and Lib Dems. The Tories are doing pretty well on the ground and the Lib Dem rise could actually work in their favour by splitting the Labour vote. I’ve put £10 down at 13/8 with Paddy Power.Read more
Two-thirds of Labour’s new candidates in the party’s 40 safest (empty) seats are women, suggesting an imminent influx of female MPs into the House of Commons, according to research by the FT. The news comes amid expectations that the new Parliament could have a record number of female MPs whatever the result. Read more
This is rather interesting given that Miriam Gonzalez Durantez, wife of the Lib Dem leader, works for DLA Piper. This is the firm’s view – as espoused by its public law expert Paul Stone today (in a press release).
A hallmark feature of a coalition government is the sheer time it can take to achieve consensus. From a legal point of view, this often results in laws being passed that are of high quality and well scrutinised, but unfortunately, are often watered down to the point of being anodyne as a result of endless rounds of review and compromise. Read more
Now in the home run and I’m consolidating my prudent approach to gambling (Alex = hare, Jim = tortoise) with my last two bets – both of which I believe are safe.
I’ve placed £20 at Ladbrokes on the BNP not winning a single seat. No pollster or political expert has suggested in the last month that the BNP have sufficient momentum in any constituency and I have no reason to doubt this. You may consider the 1/4 odds paltry but in financial markets a 25 per cent return over 48 hours would be considered rather impressive. Read more
Political scientist Dr Tim Bale of Sussex University says voters aren’t as scared of a hung parliament as the Tories would like, but also warns that Labour’s hopes of a swell in underlying support on election day are likely to be dashed. He goes on to examine poll reliability, the weather’s effect on turnover, and makes his own prediction
Paul Waugh has a fine example of some entertaining Lib Dem hypocrisy campaigning. But I think I can trump that leaflet with this highly creative edition of “Labour News”, which landed on my doormat in Oval. You’re not imagining things, the balaclava clad burglar is indeed carrying a Lib Dem swag bag. The tag line is that the “Lib Dems are ALWAYS soft on crime”. But aren’t they just stealing the election?
Jim Pickard is the FT's chief political correspondent, having joined the lobby team in January 2008. He has been at the FT since 1999 as a regional correspondent, assistant UK news editor and property correspondent.
Kiran Stacey is an FT political correspondent, having joined the lobby in 2011. He started at the FT as a graduate trainee in 2008, working on desks including UK companies and US equity markets before taking over the FT's Energy Source blog.