Westminster Blog

Well, for my final £20 I was looking for a broader bet on seat numbers, vote share, or a majority. But most of these wagers seem to be pretty poor value, particularly given the uncertainty in this race.

So to crush the Pickard “tortoise”, I’ve picked out a few seats again based on conversations with some campaigners.

The first is a Tory win in Feltham & Heston. Alan Keen has had a rough time over expenses and he’s facing a two-pronged assault from the Tories and Lib Dems. The Tories are doing pretty well on the ground and the Lib Dem rise could actually work in their favour by splitting the Labour vote. I’ve put £10 down at 13/8 with Paddy Power.

The last two are Lib Dem gains. I was trying to avoid more of these, but being a Lib Dem correspondent, it tends to be the kind of intelligence I pick up. And the seats where there is a possibility of an upset are still better odds than the Tory equivalents. Wrexham is the first £5 bet, purely on the basis of some relatively upbeat reports from the activists. I’ve taken odds of 5/2 with Betfair.

Then there is Broadland, a newly created seat in Norfolk that Keith Simpson is defending. The Lib Dems are on the up in this region and the boundary changes are have not been kind to the Tories (they’ve inherited a bit of a personal vote for Norman Lamb, a tenacious Lib Dem campaigner in the neighbouring seat). I’ve put down £5 at 2/1 with Paddy Power.

Legal disclaimer: It goes without saying that our tips are almost certain to be worthless duds. Please do not try this at home or at work unless you’re looking to give money away. There will also be no wagers on “facts” we’ve discovered through our work (such as a candidate calling a press conference to announce they will drop out).