Well, for my final £20 I was looking for a broader bet on seat numbers, vote share, or a majority. But most of these wagers seem to be pretty poor value, particularly given the uncertainty in this race.
So to crush the Pickard “tortoise”, I’ve picked out a few seats again based on conversations with some campaigners.
The first is a Tory win in Feltham & Heston. Alan Keen has had a rough time over expenses and he’s facing a two-pronged assault from the Tories and Lib Dems. The Tories are doing pretty well on the ground and the Lib Dem rise could actually work in their favour by splitting the Labour vote. I’ve put £10 down at 13/8 with Paddy Power.
The last two are Lib Dem gains. I was trying to avoid more of these, but being a Lib Dem correspondent, it tends to be the kind of intelligence I pick up. And the seats where there is a possibility of an upset are still better odds than the Tory equivalents. Wrexham is the first £5 bet, purely on the basis of some relatively upbeat reports from the activists. I’ve taken odds of 5/2 with Betfair.
Then there is Broadland, a newly created seat in Norfolk that Keith Simpson is defending. The Lib Dems are on the up in this region and the boundary changes are have not been kind to the Tories (they’ve inherited a bit of a personal vote for Norman Lamb, a tenacious Lib Dem campaigner in the neighbouring seat). I’ve put down £5 at 2/1 with Paddy Power.
Legal disclaimer: It goes without saying that our tips are almost certain to be worthless duds. Please do not try this at home or at work unless you’re looking to give money away. There will also be no wagers on “facts” we’ve discovered through our work (such as a candidate calling a press conference to announce they will drop out).
|Who will win Dundee West?||Labour||£5||6/4||William Hill||tbc|
|Who will win Brighton Pavilion?||Labour||£5||7/2||William Hill||tbc|
|Total number of Lib Dem seats||60-69 seats||£5||4/1||Paddy Power||tbc|
|Who will win Harrow West?||Conservatives||£20||3/2||Ladbrokes||tbc|
|Who will win the TV debate?||Nick Clegg||£4||13/8||Paddy Power||£0|
|Which foreign country will be mentioned first in the debate?||America||£1||8/1||Paddy Power||£9|
|What size audience for the last TV debate?||5m-9.99m||£5||3/1||Ladbrokes||£20|
|What size audience for the last TV debate?||10m-14.99m||£10||5/4||Ladbrokes||£0|
|How many seats will the Conservatives win?||301-350||£15||4/5||PaddyPower||tbc|
|BNP not winning a single seat||NA||£20||1/4||Ladbrokes||tbc|
|The Speaker, John Bercow, to hold his seat||NA||£10||1/6||Ladbrokes||tbc|
|Total bets and return||£100||£29|
|Who will win Cardiff South?||Lib Dems||£10||40/1||William Hill||tbc|
|Who will win Cardiff West?||Tories||£10||4/1||Betfair||tbc|
|What will voter turnout be?||Under 67.5 per cent||£20||8/11||Sky Bet||tbc|
|Who will win Mid Sussex?||Lib Dems||£5||6/1||Paddy Power||tbc|
|Who will win Newcastle East?||Lib Dems||£5||13/8||Victor Chandler||tbc|
|Who will win Newcastle Central?||Lib Dems||£5||2/1||Ladbrokes||tbc|
|Who will win Ashfield?||Lib Dems||£5||5/2||Ladbrokes||tbc|
|Who will win Weston-Super-Mare?||Lib Dems||£5||7/4||Betfair||tbc|
|Who will win Wells?||Lib Dems||£5||7/5||Betfair||tbc|
|Who will win Redcar?||Lib Dems||£5||7/4||Ladbrokes||tbc|
|Who will win Woking?||Lib Dems||£5||6/1||Ladbrokes||tbc|
|Who will win in Feltham & Heston?||Tories||£10||13/8||Paddy Power||tbc|
|Who will win Wrexham||Lib Dems||£5||5/2||Betfair||tbc|
|Who will win Broadland||Lib Dems||£5||2/1||Paddy Power||tbc|
|Total bets and return||£100|