A postscript to my earlier blog about the Balls campaign being on the ropes.

Here is a YouGov poll of Labour members from mid-way in the deputy leadership race in 2007 which turned out to be spectacularly wrong. It’s worth bearing in mind.

If you follow through to the link you’ll see that Hilary Benn was the most popular and Harriet Harman came in fourth; the final result was the total opposite.

As an ally of Balls points out, the close of nominations and fundraising totals can also be deceptive. During the deputy race Peter Hain raised the most money but came 5th, Benn got the most CLP nominations but came 4th, Jon Cruddas got biggest union backing with Unite & others but came 3rd.

Point taken; although I stand by my earlier post.

Ed Balls is in a bind.

On the one hand he has been the most effective member of the shadow cabinet in recent weeks, successfully landing punch after punch on the coalition over the Building Schools for the Future programme.

On the other his leadership campaign is running into the sand. In a poll last night for the Sun he came in fifth behind all the other candidates, with just 11 per cent of those polled (against 37 per cent for David M and 29 per cent for Ed M). It seems that Labour supporters haven’t warmed to him.

So what to do? If Balls swings his weight behind one of the brothers he could give significant momentum to that candidate and therefore secure the shadow chancellorship as a reward. If he stays in the contest and comes third he might get that job anyway. But if he comes in fifth the winner is under no obvious obligation to give him that plum role, for which he is qualified and would no doubt want.