Daily Archives: July 30, 2010

Jim Pickard

Interesting to see that John Prescott now says he was “nervous” about the intelligence that provided the basis for the Iraq invasion.

On the basis of the Alastair Campbell diaries, “JP” – far from expressing nerves about the war - played an enforcer role in making sure that the cabinet knuckled down behind Tony Blair.

September 23, 2002. There was a cabinet meeting.

“JP came in with quite a hit on Robin and Clare, said we could all do our bit of positioning to make our own view heard, and get a few plaudits, but we were in this together. He said TB had done a brilliant job moving the US down the UN route and we should stick with him and stick together….he said Tony had an incredibly difficult job at times like this and we should support him.”

January 16, 2003. Another cabinet meeting.

“At the end of the discussion JP did a very passionate wind-up. He said the discussion showed that there was no real division ‘so let’s stop pretending there is’. He said the briefings and the ‘talking out the side of the mouth’ have to stop….sometimes we have to make difficult judgments. If TB has the courage to put the case, we should get behind him.

Jim Pickard

A postscript to my earlier blog about the Balls campaign being on the ropes.

Here is a YouGov poll of Labour members from mid-way in the deputy leadership race in 2007 which turned out to be spectacularly wrong. It’s worth bearing in mind.

If you follow through to the link you’ll see that Hilary Benn was the most popular and Harriet Harman came in fourth; the final result was the total opposite.

As an ally of Balls points out, the close of nominations and fundraising totals can also be deceptive. During the deputy race Peter Hain raised the most money but came 5th, Benn got the most CLP nominations but came 4th, Jon Cruddas got biggest union backing with Unite & others but came 3rd.

Point taken; although I stand by my earlier post.

Jim Pickard

Ed Balls is in a bind.

On the one hand he has been the most effective member of the shadow cabinet in recent weeks, successfully landing punch after punch on the coalition over the Building Schools for the Future programme.

On the other his leadership campaign is running into the sand. In a poll last night for the Sun he came in fifth behind all the other candidates, with just 11 per cent of those polled (against 37 per cent for David M and 29 per cent for Ed M). It seems that Labour supporters haven’t warmed to him.

So what to do? If Balls swings his weight behind one of the brothers he could give significant momentum to that candidate and therefore secure the shadow chancellorship as a reward. If he stays in the contest and comes third he might get that job anyway. But if he comes in fifth the winner is under no obvious obligation to give him that plum role, for which he is qualified and would no doubt want.

Jim Pickard

Eric Pickles, communities secretary, says today that his plan for council tax will be a “radical extension of direct democracy” which will “let the people decide“.

Under his proposals, the public will have the power to veto excessive council tax rises. (At present only ministers can ‘cap’ these increases).

Any council setting its increase above a set ceiling (approved in, er, Parliament) will trigger an automatic referendum of all registered electors in its area – at the cost of tens of thousands of pounds. The cost alone (at a time of tight budgets) will prevent most local authorities from even trying to carry out big increase.

They will also shy away from such exercises because they know that - in most cases - the public will almost certainly veto the rise, judging by past experience*.

That means the vital decision is the exact level of the ceiling, which will be set by MPs in London. In which case; does this translate into a transfer of power to local people? In effect, probably not.

The most truly democratic/localist way of doing this would be to let councils do what they want. If voters are angered by council tax rises they can vote out their councillors.

* In 2002 Blair allowed a clutch of councils to hold referendums on council tax rises, including Croydon, Bristol and Milton Keynes. Most voters unsurprisingly went for the lowest rise (or freeze).

Kiran Stacey

Business hates the idea of an immigration cap – FT
Osborne tells Fox his department will pay for Trident – FT
Forgemasters gives Cable an ultimatum – FT
Only 153 schools apply for academy status – Guardian
Tory promise to make work pay – Telegraph
Tornado fleet to be grounded – The Times
Boris launches his socialist bike scheme – Evening Standard

Westminster blog

on the UK political scene

About this blog Blog guide
Jim Pickard and Kiran Stacey, FT Westminster correspondents, share the latest news and analysis on the UK's political scene.

Follow the latest news on the UK politics and policy.

To comment, please register for free with FT.com and read our policy on submitting comments.

All posts are published in UK time.

Contact the Westminster blog team: Jim Pickard, Kiran Stacey, Nicholas Timmins, Elizabeth Rigby and Helen Warrell.

The illustrations of Jim and Kiran are by Nick Hardcastle.

See the full list of FT blogs.

The authors

Jim Pickard joined the lobby team in January 2008. He has been at the Financial Times since 1999 as a regional correspondent, assistant UK news editor and property correspondent.

Kiran Stacey is an FT political correspondent, having joined the lobby in 2011. He started at the FT as a graduate trainee in 2008, working on desks including UK companies and US equity markets before taking over the FT's Energy Source blog.

Contributors

Elizabeth Rigby, the FT's chief political correspondent, joined the lobby team in September 2010. Elizabeth has worked at the FT for more than a decade and was most recently its consumer industries editor.

Helen Warrell is the FT's UK reporter, covering home affairs, crime and policing. She joined the FT in 2008 and has spent time as a reporter in the Brussels bureau and more recently, editing the paper's Asia coverage on the world news desk.

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