How the opinion polls were wrong about Labour deputy leadership race

A postscript to my earlier blog about the Balls campaign being on the ropes.

Here is a YouGov poll of Labour members from mid-way in the deputy leadership race in 2007 which turned out to be spectacularly wrong. It’s worth bearing in mind.

If you follow through to the link you’ll see that Hilary Benn was the most popular and Harriet Harman came in fourth; the final result was the total opposite.

As an ally of Balls points out, the close of nominations and fundraising totals can also be deceptive. During the deputy race Peter Hain raised the most money but came 5th, Benn got the most CLP nominations but came 4th, Jon Cruddas got biggest union backing with Unite & others but came 3rd.

Point taken; although I stand by my earlier post.

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Jim Pickard joined the lobby team in January 2008. He has been at the Financial Times since 1999 as a regional correspondent, assistant UK news editor and property correspondent.

Kiran Stacey is an FT political correspondent, having joined the lobby in 2011. He started at the FT as a graduate trainee in 2008, working on desks including UK companies and US equity markets before taking over the FT's Energy Source blog.

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Elizabeth Rigby, the FT's chief political correspondent, joined the lobby team in September 2010. Elizabeth has worked at the FT for more than a decade and was most recently its consumer industries editor.

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