Has Michael Gove’s discreet approach to budget negotiations paid off? Education bravely resisted the shroud waving that marked the defence review. But it looks like Gove has emerged with a better deal than Fox, at least in terms of his resource budget.
We already know that schools spending — based on the Ed Balls baseline — will rise in real terms (albeit by a tiny amount). Today’s surprise will be that the education department will win the best settlement of all the unprotected departments. That means its resource budget will be cut by less than the 7.5 per cent imposed on defence. When it came to a stand-off between kids and frigates, the kids appear to have prevailed.
Now, as with all settlements announced today, the headline figure mask a great deal of pain. Spending channelled through local authorities (such as children’s services) will suffer. So will spending on 16 to 19 year olds. And of course the resource settlement does not include the education capital budget, which is about to be thumped.
Indeed, while we’ll hear a lot about cash for early years funding and the pupil premium, there will be no details over how a big cut in capital spending — possibly more than 50 per cent — will broken down. None at all. Everyone will have to wait for a review to see whether Michael Gove is going to target the pain on primary schools, secondary schools or general maintenance budgets.
So the gory details will be deferred. Today the coalition will be showing that education is a big priority. As for the cabinet, the headline numbers won’t immediately reveal whose negotiating strategy proved most effective, as it must be compared to the Treasury’s secret plans for the department. But George Osborne will certainly be trying to make clear that discretion has its advantages.
Jim Pickard
Kiran Stacey