The IDS welfare white paper is impressive in parts. But it is difficult to work out some of the most basic knock-on effects. After having struggled in vain with the data provided, Ian Mulheirn of the Social Market Foundation looked asked a broader question:

What will happen to the incentives to work of a typical working family between 2010 and 2014, if they moved straight on to Universal Credit?

The answer is they’ll be paying about 6p in the pound extra in tax. It doesn’t quite match today’s rosy political rhetoric. Read more

Iain Duncan Smith just repeatedly “guaranteed” to the Commons that there would be no losers from the introduction of the Universal Credit. But that of course depends on how you define a loser.

This graph makes clear that there will be losers from this benefit reform, at least in terms of entitlements. It hits a relatively well off section of society. But they are losers nonetheless. Read more