Daily Archives: November 29, 2010

Here’s another example of the OBR shrugging its shoulders at coalition policy.

The Office of Budget Responsibility reviews the Lib Dem-backed crackdown on tax avoidance and concludes that it will have no impact on compliance rates

Some weeks ago, we ran a story on how David Cameron’s immigration cap would stunt economic growth and cost the exchequer around £9bn a year, at least according to the Office of Budget Responsibility economic model.

At that point the OBR had yet to take account of the new coalition policies. So for our piece, we had assumed Cameron would actually achieve his aim of bringing net immigration down to the level of the 1990s, when the average was close to 60,000.

Well, the OBR has now officially taken account of the coalition’s immigration policies. Their verdict makes surprising reading.

Their considered view is that Cameron will have no impact on net immigration. All the announcements since June have not made a jot of difference.

This is the key passage explaining the old assumption and the new policies: