Monthly Archives: April 2011

Two tests await Ed Miliband, Labour leader, and his party: polls across the country, and a referendum on the alternative voting system for which he is a principal campaigner. George Parker, political editor, talks to the leader of the UK opposition about the upcoming ballots, his call for a cultural change in the City of London, and the coalition government’s deficit reduction strategy.

The question of whether Gaddafi is a target for airstrikes has hung over the Libya campaign. The convoluted explanations from ministers can appear dry and legalistic. That’s because they are. But it is worth imagining the terrible indigestion this causes Foreign Office lawyers.

The problems started the moment General Sir David Richards said the Colonel was “absolutely not” a target under the UN resolution.

Since then, there have been strikes on command and control facilities in Tripoli. In public ministers have been opening up a bit, offering a slightly less legalistic response to questions. Take this quote from Liam Fox from an interview on the PBS NewsHour on Tuesday:

“If you look at it from Gadhafi’s point of view, [this] has been something happening at arm’s length, something happening in Misurata, something happening in Ajdabiya or out towards Benghazi.

What we’ve seen in recent days [is] attacks on Tripoli to increase the psychological pressure, apart from anything else, on Gadhafi, to make him realize that this is something that he is involved in.”

Sounds rather targeted to me.

Nick Clegg has been warned by senior Conservative MPs that they will wreak revenge on him for the Liberal Democrats’ “Easter uprising”, including frustrating his plans for elections to the House of Lords.

Tory backbenchers were seething over attacks made at the weekend by the deputy prime minister and other senior Lib Dems against Tory cabinet ministers, as the heat intensified in the Alternative Vote referendum campaign.

Jim Pickard

Most of the attention on the number of candidates for the May 5 local elections has centred on the relative numbers compared to 2007. The Lib Dems are contesting 59.2 per cent (down from 63.6 per cent), the Tories are fighting 93.7 per cent (up from 88.7 per cent) and Labour has candidates for 72.1 per cent (up from 60.5 per cent).

Clearly this narrative conveys a sense of momentum for Labour in particular, representing a rise of a fifth in its army of candidates.

Bear in mind though that the figure is still six points lower than 1999, when the party fought in 77.9 per cent of wards.

When David Cameron dispatched “military advisers” to Libya, he crossed an important line. It is a relatively small military contribution that carries with it a heavy burden of extra responsibility.

The prime minister is taking part-ownership of rebel actions, whether he likes it or not. The barbarity of the Gaddafi regime is well documented. But small wars like that in Libya usually involve both sides committing atrocities. Now that British officers are involved in helping the rebels, Britain will be more answerable for what they do.

William Hague insists the officers won’t be involved in planning or executing operations. But when they are providing advice on “military organisational structures, communications and logistics” they are bound to find out more about rebel military preparations.

What happens if they discover something unsavoury is afoot? This will be a question taxing the minds of lawyers in Whitehall. Should they attempt to stop them? Withdraw support and defence materiel that has been provided? Inform Nato so strikes can be prepared to protect civilians?

Nicholas Timmins

The Liberal Democrats in their election manifesto wanted local authorities to do the purchasing of NHS care. Even now, during Cameron, Clegg and Lansley’s “pause” in their NHS reforms, their activists are pushing hard for councillors to be given a much bigger role in commissioning.

This is a really bad idea. And Enfield council, in the first test of what the Liberal Democrats would like to be the new regime, have just demonstrated why.

The reason council commissioning of care is a not a good idea is that it mixes representation without taxation. Councillors have democratic legitimacy. But they don’t raise the money for the NHS.

So over the long term, giving them responsibility for commissioning is simply a recipe for councils to say there is not enough money in the system and to blame central government for the NHS’s deficiencies, rather than take hard decisions – hard in the sense that they are always locally unpopular – over how services need to be reshaped as medicine changes.

That was what almost invariably happened when councillors sat on health authorities back in the seventies and eighties. Today, Enfield has just made the point again.

Chase Farm Hospital in the borough has both accident and emergency, and maternity and paediatric services, that hospital clinicians locally believe are no longer safe. Indeed, it is 17 years since the closure of Chase Farm’s “blue light” A&E was first proposed and 15 years since the same case was made – again on clinical grounds – over the maternity care.

Enfield is bitterly opposed to the plans to transfer both these services to the nearby North Middlesex Hospital – a proposal that would leave Chase Farm doing more non-emergency surgery than at present, and still with an urgent care centre.

Despite endless rounds of consultation which have shown clear majority support among hospital clinicians and GPs across Barnet, Enfield and Haringey – all three boroughs and parts of Hertfordshire are affected by this change – Andrew Lansley, the health secretary, recently gave the council a chance to come up with an alternative strategy.

Today it has done so. Boiled down, its conclusion is “give us more money and keep everything open”. Point made.

Jim Pickard

David Cameron this morning sought to scupper Gordon Brown’s potential appointment to head the International Monetary Fund.

The job is expected to come up within months if and when Dominique Strauss Kahn tilts for the French presidency ahead of next year’s elections. (Although Chris Giles, our economics editor, has dismissed the idea that Brown is a front-runner). Cameron, interviewed on the Today programme, was cattily dismissive:

“I haven’t spent a huge amount of time thinking about this, but it does seem to me that if you have someone who didn’t think we had a debt problem in the UK, when we self-evidently do have a debt problem, then they might not be the most appropriate person to work out whether other countries around the world have debt and deficit problems….

“What matters is the person running the IMF is someone who understands the danger of excessive debt, excessive deficit, and it really must be someone who gets that rather than someone who says that they don’t see a problem.”

It is not clear if Cameron is talking about Britain’s debt issues pre-crash or post-crash.

It is true that Gordon Brown had his head in the sand during the build-up to the financial crisis, refusing to accept that systemic risk was building up in the system. Even when the house of cards started to fall he was still in a state of disbelief. (On a return flight from New York in the autumn of 2008 he became apoplectic when I questioned his belief that Britain had not experienced any ‘subprime’ lending).

But for Cameron to pretend that the Tories were any more concerned about the situation, pre-crunch, show a degree of chutzpah. Not only did the Conservatives agree to match Labour’s spending promises right up until the crash – which they would not have done if they predicted the meltdown. They also wanted even lighter regulation on the banks.

Where the Tories outmanouvred Labour post-credit crunch was in recognising that an enormous deficit had opened up; one that could not simply be ignored. (We described Brown’s attempts to dismiss this in June 2009 as “fundamentally

Jim Pickard

You’ll find better coverage of this on FT Alphaville.

But today’s warning about the US economy from Standard & Poor’s will be closely watched in Britain today and beyond. (Bear in mind the old expression that when the US economy sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold).

You can read our main story at ft.com through this link. Shares have fallen sharply, Treasury yields are up and gold has hit a new record price.

Here is one of the key passages from the ratings agency:

Because the U.S. has, relative to its ‘AAA’ peers, what we consider to be very large budget deficits and rising government indebtedness and the path to addressing these is not clear to us, we have revised our outlook on the long-term rating to negative from stable.

No doubt the coalition will argue that Britain is a different case because the UK deficit reduction path is relatively clear.

Jim Pickard

With several weeks to go before the AV referendum the arguments are starting to get slightly repetitive. But Vince Cable has tried a different slant on the debate during this morning’s joint press conference with Ed Miliband.

Instead of citing other countries with AV (Fiji, Australia, Papua New Guinea) he chose the – not entirely comparable – example of Strictly Come Dancing.

“What would happen if Strictly Come Dancing were decided on the basis of first-past-the-post, which it could be? It would all be resolved after the first week and Ann Widdecombe would be the undisputed choice as the best dancer in Britain…So, of course, the public there, and in many other ways, do understand run-offs, they do understand the basic principle of the alternative vote.”

Jim Pickard

The Office for National Statistics has told the BBC that the net EU migration figures the Prime Minister used in his speech on immigration are wrong – and that EU immigration was estimated at 57,000 not 27,000 in the year to June 2010.

The reason this matters is that Cameron used the figure to claim that Europe accounted for only a “small proportion of overall net migration to the UK.”

Who is right?

It transpires that the PM’s figure is technically correct for net immigration from the EU. But the ONS argue – quite compellingly – that it’s appropriate to exclude the British citizens who left the country during that period (a net outflow of 30,000). Thus they believe the 57,000 figure is more valid.

Incidentally, the ONS earlier in the afternoon accused Cameron of citing net immigration from the EU15 (not the larger EU27) to come up with his figure. But no: it is a co-incidence that the EU15 figure for the same period was the same figure of 27,000. Downing St are quite indignant* about this mix-up.

* UPDATE: “Furious more like“, says one aide

Jim Pickard

When Nick Clegg called for paid internships last week there was an ironic twist as it emerged that the coalition had just cut funding for that purpose.

Now, as Cameron makes his most rightwing speech on immigration to date, it is worth pointing out the flaw in his vow to make incomers speak the Queen’s English.

As the Guardian points out today, the coalition is making deep cuts to the state programme for teaching immigrants the language.

From the autumn these lessons will only be free for immigrants on jobseeker’s allowance

Jim Pickard

Ipsos Mori has published an interesting survey today suggesting that three quarters (75 per cent) of Britons believe that immigration is currently a problem.

There is also strong support for the government’s plan to introduce an annual cap on the on the number of workers coming into Britain from countries outside the European Union. More than half (57 per cent) support the cap and only 15 per cent (one in seven) oppose it.

To quote from the pollster:

The main cause of concern about immigration is the perceived burden it has on public services and the pressure it places on jobs. Indeed, lower skilled workers are the most likely to say immigration is a problem.

With youth unemployment reaching record highs, concern amongst those aged 16 to 24 has seen a big increase (this group is usually least negative about immigration). Almost half (49 per cent) of them believe that immigration to Britain will damage the economic recovery by taking away jobs from people already living here.

The West Midlands has the highest level of concern, with 88 per cent perceiving immigration as an issue. Despite a very high number of immigrants, London is the region with the least anxiety but the numbers are still high at 61 per cent.

While less than ten per cent of people want to see an end to all immigration into Britain, there is strong support for tougher laws.

Westminster blog

on the UK political scene

About this blog Blog guide
Jim Pickard and Kiran Stacey, FT Westminster correspondents, share the latest news and analysis on the UK's political scene.

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All posts are published in UK time.

Contact the Westminster blog team: Jim Pickard, Kiran Stacey, Nicholas Timmins, Elizabeth Rigby and Helen Warrell.

The illustrations of Jim and Kiran are by Nick Hardcastle.

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The authors

Jim Pickard joined the lobby team in January 2008. He has been at the Financial Times since 1999 as a regional correspondent, assistant UK news editor and property correspondent.

Kiran Stacey is an FT political correspondent, having joined the lobby in 2011. He started at the FT as a graduate trainee in 2008, working on desks including UK companies and US equity markets before taking over the FT's Energy Source blog.

Contributors

Elizabeth Rigby, the FT's chief political correspondent, joined the lobby team in September 2010. Elizabeth has worked at the FT for more than a decade and was most recently its consumer industries editor.

Helen Warrell is the FT's UK reporter, covering home affairs, crime and policing. She joined the FT in 2008 and has spent time as a reporter in the Brussels bureau and more recently, editing the paper's Asia coverage on the world news desk.

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