According to OddsChecker, you can still get around 4/7 on the Tory incumbent (I caught 4/6 at PaddyPower yesterday morning) with little better than evens (around 11/10) on Ken Livingstone.
Polls are still few and far between, although YouGov before Christmas put Boris ahead by two points and an earlier Comrest poll suggested Johnson was ahead by 45 per cent to 27 per cent.
Londoners may not be happy with some current policies on – for example – transport ticketing, police and housing, as a recent survey suggested.
But my gut feeling is that Ken Livingstone, having had two terms as London mayor, may be seen by Londoners as yesterday’s man, as cruel as that may sound. Boris, for all his obvious flaws, is still seen as a buoyant, positive figure. The only question is whether he can sidestep an association with the Tory-Lib national government and its deep programme of spending cuts; so far he has done so fairly easily.
UPDATE: A Labour aide points out that the most recent YouGov poll, on Valentine’s day, put Ken ahead at 45-43 per cent. Fair enough; but I’m staying with my prediction. To coin a phrase; when the facts change I stick to my guns.
* Incidentally, if anyone out there is offering odds on Steve Hilton, I’d bet on him staying in government for quite some time to come. If he did tell friends he was thinking of leaving it was early last month – since when he’s realised he does enjoy his powerful role in 10 Downing St.